The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper:
“In the first four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito, the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened. Under Varro, who served as mayor for four years before Montoya, the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Clearly, the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro.” Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
The argument opines that residents of San Perdito would have been better served, if they had voted Montoya out of office and re-elected Varro, who held the office before Montoya, as mayor of San Perdito. This conclusion is based on the comparison drawn between the unemployment rate along with population change during Montoya's time in office and that during Varro's. However, this line of reasoning for author's conclusion is flawed for several reasons.
First, argument assumes that economic growth is the sole factor that voters consider to elect their mayor and ignores other factors, such as infrastructure development, improvement in public utilities, educational reforms etc., which may influence the decision of voters of San Perdito. What if corruption was at its peak during Varro's time in office? Residents of San Perdito would be wretched and would have decided to overthrow him, even though unemployment rate was low, and the conclusion of the argument no longer holds. Had the argument compared other key factors also, it would have strengthened the argument.
Second, even if economic growth/conditions is the only factor to be considered, argument ignores the fact that economic conditions are determined by complex interplay of various key indicators and bases its conclusion on one single indicator i.e unemployment rate. Further, argument does not provide any reason for low unemployment rate during the tenure of Varro. It could be the case that even though unemployment rate was low, minimum wage was also low during that time because of surplus availability of labours, which in turn is a result of increased population. If this holds true, then residents of San Perdito during Varro's tenure, though employed, may not be as happy as or as prosperous as they were during the time when Montoya was in office, and thus, they are better off without Varro.
Third, in stating that two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened when Montoya served as mayor of the city, argument ignores that present consequences can be result of past actions. For instance, businesses that were closed during Montoya's time either would have predestined to die even if Varro had been in office or could have closed due to economic reforms brought in by Varro's economic policy. Moreover, argument sheds no light on businesses closed when Varro served as mayor. Hence, with the information provided in the argument, it is difficult to say under whom would be the residents of San Perdito better served.
For these reasons, argument fails to make a convincing case for its conclusion.