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Re: Because of a rare type of fungus that killed off many cacao trees in B [#permalink]
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mbaMission wrote:
Because of a rare type of fungus that killed off many cacao trees in Brazil, there was an unusually meager harvest of cacao beans this year. The wholesale price of cocoa solids and cocoa butter has increased significantly and is unlikely to fall in the foreseeable future. As a result, the retail price of chocolate is certain to increase within six months.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument above?

(A) Consumers will purchase other sweets if the price of chocolate increases.
(B) Researchers have discovered an effective method to kill the fungus.
(C) Dark and bittersweet varieties of chocolate will be affected more seriously than milk varieties.
(D) The price of chocolate has decreased steadily for three years.
(E) Most chocolate in stores is manufactured from cocoa that was purchased two years earlier.

Show SpoilerExplanation
Conclusion: the retail price of chocolate is certain to increase within six months.
Option E states that
Most chocolate in stores is manufactured from cocoa that was purchased two years earlier.

My question: The options says most chocolate i.e. atleast 50% and may be 100%. So it is not mentioned that all chocolate in stores is manufactured from cocoa that was purchased two years earlier. So the conclusion can be true and some increase in retail price is possible. So is it right to conclude: Most means All? No. So Why E? (I know other options are not even close but my question is w.r.t to E option only)

Pls help.


Please find the analysis of all the options the best answer is E

A) Consumer will purchase other sweets after increase of prices of chocolate hence does not weakens the argument
B) Effective method of killing fungus which is discovered by researcher may be applied now and have impact on cacao prices next year hence does not weakens the argument.
C) Dark and bittersweet chocolate prices will indeed go up.
D) The decrease in chocolate prices in last three years should not weaken the argument
E) Most chocolate in stores are manufactured for cocoa which was purchased two earlier means there is a lead time to two years to affect the prices of chocolate, hence weakens the argument as this year’s cocoa will have effect on chocolate prices after two years
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Re: Because of a rare type of fungus that killed off many cacao trees in B [#permalink]
Argument: The retail price of chocolate is certain to increase within six months

Question: Which option weakens the argument most seriously?

(A) Consumers will purchase other sweets if the price of chocolate increases.
This option talks about what consumers can do if the price of chocolate increases. There is no information/evidence on whether the price of chocolate will increase. This option does not weaken the argument.

(B) Researchers have discovered an effective method to kill the fungus.
The concern is about this year's cacao beans production. Discovery of the effective method to kill the fungus has no effect on this year's production. This option does not weaken the argument.

(C) Dark and bittersweet varieties of chocolate will be affected more seriously than milk varieties.
There is no classification on varieties of chocolate. Concern is on the price of whole chocolate category. This option does not weaken the argument.

(D) The price of chocolate has decreased steadily for three years.
Fungus destroyed the crops this year and so the previous price trend is not applicable on the current new situation. This option does not weaken the argument.

(E) Most chocolate in stores is manufactured from cocoa that was purchased two years earlier.
This option precisely attacks the certainty of price increase within six months. As the stock of chocolates is 2 years old, it is likely that the stock will mitigate the demand for more than six months and that makes the price increase within six months uncertain. This option weakens the argument.

Answer is E.
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Re: Because of a rare type of fungus that killed off many cacao trees in B [#permalink]
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Because of a rare type of fungus that killed off many cacao trees in Brazil, there was an unusually meager harvest of cacao beans this year. The wholesale price of cocoa solids and cocoa butter has increased significantly and is unlikely to fall in the foreseeable future. As a result, the retail price of chocolate is certain to increase within six months.

what this ques stem doing is tieing up the retail price of chocolate to cocoa solids and cocoa butter.

It can weaken if :

1> we can change the time frame. so lets say - chocolate in current manufacturing currently using inventory of cocoa solids and cocoa butter, which is self-sufficient for, lets say, 12 month. then no effect on the retail price of chocolate for six months for sure. It might increase, but only after 6 month or 12 month.

2> if we can reduce the proportion of cocoa solids and cocoa butter in choclate and increase of some cheaper raw material instead, overall that set off the price.

what we shoudl not do?

3> we should not say some cure is suddenly got available to kill off fungus because that doesnt help us to adress the current issue. May be in future it will resolve the price increase but not now. "is unlikely to fall in the foreseeable future" we should take this seriously.



Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument above?



B. Researchers have discovered an effective method to kill the fungus.


E. Most chocolate in stores is manufactured from cocoa that was purchased two years earlier.

E is aligned with prethinking 2
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Re: Because of a rare type of fungus that killed off many cacao trees in B [#permalink]
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Let’s look at the stimulus given

Premises

Because of a rare type of fungus that killed off many cacao trees in Brazil, there was an unusually meager harvest of cacao beans this year.
The wholesale price of cocoa solids and cocoa butter has increased significantly and is unlikely to fall in the foreseeable future.

Conclusion/opinion-

As a result, the retail price of chocolate is certain to increase within six months.


We need to find an option that weakens the conclusion that the retail price of chocolate is certain to increase within the next six months.

(A) Consumers will purchase other sweets if the price of chocolate increases.

The conclusion is that the retail price of chocolate is certain to increase. This is what we have to weaken. Option A talks about what consumers will do if the price of chocolate increases. This does not impact the conclusion at all. Eliminate.

(B) Researchers have discovered an effective method to kill the fungus.

Researchers have discovered an effective method to kill the fungus but what about this year’s harvest? The conclusion is based on this year’s harvest. Eliminate

(C) Dark and bittersweet varieties of chocolate will be affected more seriously than milk varieties.

So? How does this tell us anything about whether there will be a rise in the retail price of chocolate in the next six months? Eliminate.

(D) The price of chocolate has decreased steadily for three years.

The conclusion is about whether there will be a rise in the retail price of chocolate in the next six months. Eliminate.

(E) Most chocolate in stores is manufactured from cocoa that was purchased two years earlier.

Option E tells us that most chocolate in stores is manufactured from cocoa that was purchased two years earlier. If that’s the case, the meager harvest of cacao beans this year will not have a huge impact on the retail price for chocolates in the next six months.
Option E weakens the conclusion and is correct.


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Re: Because of a rare type of fungus that killed off many cacao trees in B [#permalink]
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