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03 Mar 2020, 05:10
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E
Be sure to select an answer first to save it in the Error Log before revealing the correct answer (OA)!
Difficulty:
65%
(hard)
Question Stats:
63% (02:46) correct
37%
(02:51)
wrong
based on 602
sessions
History
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Not Attempted Yet
A letter submitted to the editor of a national newsmagazine was written and signed by a Dr. Shirley Martin who, in the text of the letter, mentions being a professor at a major North American medical school. Knowing that fewer than 5 percent of the professors at such schools are women, the editor reasons that the chances are better than 19 to 1 that the letter was written by a man.
Which one of the following involves flawed reasoning most like that used by the editor?
(A) Since 19 out of 20 home computers are purchased primarily for use with computer games, and the first computer sold today was purchased solely for word processing, the next 19 computers sold will almost certainly be used primarily for computer games.
(B) Fewer than 1 in 20 of the manuscripts submitted to Argon Publishing Co. are accepted for publication. Since only 15 manuscripts were submitted last week, there is almost no chance that any of them will be accepted for publication.
(C) Fewer that 5 percent of last year’s graduating class took Latin in secondary school. Howard took Latin in secondary school, so if he had graduated last year, it is likely that one or the other Latin scholars would not have graduated.
(D) More that 95 percent of the planes built by UBC last year met government standards for large airliners. Since small planes account for just under 5 percent of UBC’s output last year, it is almost certain that all their large planes met government standards.
(E) Since more than 19 out of every 20 animals in the wildlife preserve are mammals and fewer than 1 out of 20 are birds, there is a greater than 95 percent chance that the animal Emily saw flying between two trees in the wildlife refuge yesterday morning was a mammal.
Which one of the following involves flawed reasoning most like that used by the editor?
(A) Since 19 out of 20 home computers are purchased primarily for use with computer games, and the first computer sold today was purchased solely for word processing, the next 19 computers sold will almost certainly be used primarily for computer games.
(B) Fewer than 1 in 20 of the manuscripts submitted to Argon Publishing Co. are accepted for publication. Since only 15 manuscripts were submitted last week, there is almost no chance that any of them will be accepted for publication.
(C) Fewer that 5 percent of last year’s graduating class took Latin in secondary school. Howard took Latin in secondary school, so if he had graduated last year, it is likely that one or the other Latin scholars would not have graduated.
(D) More that 95 percent of the planes built by UBC last year met government standards for large airliners. Since small planes account for just under 5 percent of UBC’s output last year, it is almost certain that all their large planes met government standards.
(E) Since more than 19 out of every 20 animals in the wildlife preserve are mammals and fewer than 1 out of 20 are birds, there is a greater than 95 percent chance that the animal Emily saw flying between two trees in the wildlife refuge yesterday morning was a mammal.
Updated on: 07 Jun 2022, 09:56
Originally posted by MartyTargetTestPrep on 07 Jun 2022, 09:55.
Last edited by MartyTargetTestPrep on 07 Jun 2022, 09:56, edited 1 time in total.
Last edited by MartyTargetTestPrep on 07 Jun 2022, 09:56, edited 1 time in total.
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Mavisdu1017
The editor's argument is flawed in that the editor ignored the fact that "Shirley" is a name normally given to females and not to males. So, even though fewer than five percent of professors at such universities are women, the probability that "Shirley" is a woman is greater than 5 percent.
This flaw matches the flaw in choice (E), because the author of (E) ignores the fact that mammals do not fly and considers the percentages only.
General Discussion
10 Mar 2020, 05:52
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Correct Answer: E
A letter submitted to the editor of a national newsmagazine was written and signed by a Dr. Shirley Martin who, in the text of the letter, mentions being a professor at a major North American medical school. Knowing that fewer than 5 percent of the professors at such schools are women, the editor reasons that the chances are better than 19 to 1 that the letter was written by a man.
Which one of the following involves flawed reasoning most like that used by the editor?
(A) Since 19 out of 20 home computers are purchased primarily for use with computer games, and the first computer sold today was purchased solely for word processing, the next 19 computers sold will almost certainly be used primarily for computer games. -->Incorrect, as the flaw is other than that in Premise. Flaw here is exactness of the probability is taken.
(B) Fewer than 1 in 20 of the manuscripts submitted to Argon Publishing Co. are accepted for publication. Since only 15 manuscripts were submitted last week, there is almost no chance that any of them will be accepted for publication. -->Incorrect, as the flaw is other than that in Premise. Flaw here is exactness of the probability is taken.
(C) Fewer that 5 percent of last year’s graduating class took Latin in secondary school. Howard took Latin in secondary school, so if he had graduated last year, it is likely that one or the other Latin scholars would not have graduated. -->Incorrect, as the flaw is other than that in Premise. Flaw here is, it could be the case that there are 100 students in class, making atmost 4 students with latin.
(D) More that 95 percent of the planes built by UBC last year met government standards for large airliners. Since small planes account for just under 5 percent of UBC’s output last year, it is almost certain that all their large planes met government standards.Incorrect, as the flaw is other than that in Premise. Flaw here is exactness of the probability is taken.
(E) Since more than 19 out of every 20 animals in the wildlife preserve are mammals and fewer than 1 out of 20 are birds, there is a greater than 95 percent chance that the animal Emily saw flying between two trees in the wildlife refuge yesterday morning was a mammal.-->Correct, same flaw as in the premise.
A letter submitted to the editor of a national newsmagazine was written and signed by a Dr. Shirley Martin who, in the text of the letter, mentions being a professor at a major North American medical school. Knowing that fewer than 5 percent of the professors at such schools are women, the editor reasons that the chances are better than 19 to 1 that the letter was written by a man.
Which one of the following involves flawed reasoning most like that used by the editor?
(A) Since 19 out of 20 home computers are purchased primarily for use with computer games, and the first computer sold today was purchased solely for word processing, the next 19 computers sold will almost certainly be used primarily for computer games. -->Incorrect, as the flaw is other than that in Premise. Flaw here is exactness of the probability is taken.
(B) Fewer than 1 in 20 of the manuscripts submitted to Argon Publishing Co. are accepted for publication. Since only 15 manuscripts were submitted last week, there is almost no chance that any of them will be accepted for publication. -->Incorrect, as the flaw is other than that in Premise. Flaw here is exactness of the probability is taken.
(C) Fewer that 5 percent of last year’s graduating class took Latin in secondary school. Howard took Latin in secondary school, so if he had graduated last year, it is likely that one or the other Latin scholars would not have graduated. -->Incorrect, as the flaw is other than that in Premise. Flaw here is, it could be the case that there are 100 students in class, making atmost 4 students with latin.
(D) More that 95 percent of the planes built by UBC last year met government standards for large airliners. Since small planes account for just under 5 percent of UBC’s output last year, it is almost certain that all their large planes met government standards.Incorrect, as the flaw is other than that in Premise. Flaw here is exactness of the probability is taken.
(E) Since more than 19 out of every 20 animals in the wildlife preserve are mammals and fewer than 1 out of 20 are birds, there is a greater than 95 percent chance that the animal Emily saw flying between two trees in the wildlife refuge yesterday morning was a mammal.-->Correct, same flaw as in the premise.
