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Yes, certainly should be B here. We can see from B that illiteracy has already been trending downward leading up to 1980; this suggests that the illiteracy rate is not constant, and that there is no reason to expect a 10% illiteracy rate in twenty years.
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Yes, certainly should be B here. We can see from B that illiteracy has already been trending downward leading up to 1980; this suggests that the illiteracy rate is not constant, and that there is no reason to expect a 10% illiteracy rate in twenty years.

While I agree that other choices do no make sense, this one needs us to estimate what happens in 20 years based on last 5 years. Even if the downward trend is true (as said in the gmat Q's) it does not necessarily mean that the trend in the 20 years will NOT remain constant. Who know? huh?
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Yes, certainly should be B here. We can see from B that illiteracy has already been trending downward leading up to 1980; this suggests that the illiteracy rate is not constant, and that there is no reason to expect a 10% illiteracy rate in twenty years.

While I agree that other choices do no make sense, this one needs us to estimate what happens in 20 years based on last 5 years. Even if the downward trend is true (as said in the gmat Q's) it does not necessarily mean that the trend in the 20 years will NOT remain constant. Who know? huh?

Bear in mind that we only need to weaken the conclusion - that is, cast some doubt on its validity. We don't need to do anything nearly as strong as disproving the argument. If the literacy rate hasn't been constant over the last five years, then it's reasonable to think that the rate could be quite different in twenty years. The projection in the argument assumes a constant literacy rate; if the literacy rate is not constant, the projection isn't likely to be correct. As you say, there's no way to be sure what the literacy rate will be in twenty years - the 25 million may turn out to be correct after all - but we have more reason to doubt that if we know that B is true.
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Hello from the GMAT Club VerbalBot!

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