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Air travel is becoming increasingly more dangerous. In the last year

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Air travel is becoming increasingly more dangerous. In the last year  [#permalink]

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New post Updated on: 01 May 2018, 23:26
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Air travel is becoming increasingly more dangerous. In the last year there have been seven major collisions resulting in over 700 deaths, more deaths than in any previous year.

Which statement, if true, would most weaken the argument above?


(A) Since the volume of air traffic has been increasing all the time, an increase in the number of deaths due to collisions does not necessarily mean greater danger.

(B) The increase in collisions can be explained by statistical coincidence, hijackings, and unusual weather.

(C) Mortality per passenger mile is lower for air travel than for any kind of surface transportation.

(D) The increase in deaths due to collision in air travel has proceeded at a rate identical to that for deaths in all other major forms of transportation.

(E) Last year the average number of passengers per flown plane was significantly lower than that of previous years.

Originally posted by jaxtor on 17 Jun 2009, 07:13.
Last edited by Bunuel on 01 May 2018, 23:26, edited 1 time in total.
Renamed the topic and edited the question.
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Re: Air travel is becoming increasingly more dangerous. In the last year  [#permalink]

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New post 17 Jun 2009, 07:32
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Evidence: seven major collisions resulting in over 700 deaths
Conclusion: Air travel is becoming increasingly dangerous

(A) Since the volume of air traffic has been increasing all the time, an increase in the number of deaths due to collisions does not necessarily mean greater danger. - Correct. Provides an explanation for increase in number of accidents. Percentage of accidents may or may not have changed
(B) The increase in collisions can be explained by statistical coincidence, hijackings, and unusual weather. -Doesn't weaken the arg. Just gives reason for increase in accident. Whatever be the reason, air travel has become dangerous
(C) Mortality per passenger mile is lower for air travel than for any kind of surface transportation. -Comparison with other transportation, whereas in the argument, author has not mentioned about any other transportation
(D) The increase in deaths due to collision in air travel has proceeded at a rate identical to that for deaths in all other major forms of transportation. -same error as in C
(E) Last year the average number of passengers per flown plane was significantly lower than that of previous years. -stregthens the argument.
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Air travel is becoming increasingly more dangerous. In the last year  [#permalink]

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New post 17 Jun 2009, 22:12
This is what my understanding is:

Option E says that last year avg number of passengers per flight was significantly low. Still last year has seen a higher number of deaths (as per argument). This means there must had been significant higher number of collisions in last year. A significant higher number of collisions makes the air travel even more dangerous.

Whereas option A says there had been an increase in Air Traffic. Suppose air traffic increased by 20%, and number of accidents also increased by 20%, then that means the danger level is still the same.

btw, whats the OA ??
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New post 19 Jun 2009, 01:08
i wuld go with option E(seems best)

since in option A its saying

Since the volume of air traffic has been increasing all the time, an increase in the number of deaths due to collisions does not necessarily mean greater danger

if the volume of air traffic is increasing and it is resulting in collisions dsnt it state that air travel has become more dangerous...
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Re: Air travel is becoming increasingly more dangerous. In the last year  [#permalink]

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New post 19 Jun 2009, 03:11
arvs212,.

No, it doesnt become increasingly dangerous..
because the arguments says that the increase in the number of deaths mean more danger..
but the flaw is that they didnt consider the no of the passengers that were travelling..

for example..

earlier, 100 ppl travel and 10 died.
now, 200 ppl travel and 11 died..

does this statistic mean that air travel has become more dangerous than earlier.. ?
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New post 23 Jun 2009, 08:08
A is answer.
E is wrong. For example, previous years have 100 passengers with 5 death each year (5% chance of death). Last year has lesser passengers than previous years, let's say 70 passengers and with 7 deaths (10% chance of death). Therefore E strengthens the conclusion.
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Re: Air travel is becoming increasingly more dangerous. In the last year  [#permalink]

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New post 03 May 2010, 20:37
ANS : A
(A) Since the volume of air traffic has been increasing all the time, an increase in the number of deaths due to collisions does not necessarily mean greater danger.

clearly weaken because more accidental death not mean more danger.
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New post 11 May 2010, 13:04
(A) Since the volume of air traffic has been increasing all the time, an increase in the number of deaths due to collisions does not necessarily mean greater danger. -> Weakens. Hence the answer
(B) The increase in collisions can be explained by statistical coincidence, hijackings, and unusual weather. -> Strengthens the argument
(C) Mortality per passenger mile is lower for air travel than for any kind of surface transportation. -> Out of scope. Comparison with any other means of transport is unnecessary.
(D) The increase in deaths due to collision in air travel has proceeded at a rate identical to that for deaths in all other major forms of transportation. -> Strengthens the argument
(E) Last year the average number of passengers per flown plane was significantly lower than that of previous years. ->Strengthens the argument
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New post 19 May 2010, 06:11
A must be the answer as according to it , it states that the air trafic has increased and there are more passengers now so the increased no of passenger death is the effect of that .
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New post 20 May 2010, 08:44
(A) Since the volume of air traffic has been increasing all the time, an increase in the number of deaths due to collisions does not necessarily mean greater danger.

(B) The increase in collisions can be explained by statistical coincidence, hijackings, and unusual weather. ultimately it supports

(C) Mortality per passenger mile is lower for air travel than for any kind of surface transportation.out of scope

(D) The increase in deaths due to collision in air travel has proceeded at a rate identical to that for deaths in all other major forms of transportation.we should be concentrating about air travel only. out of scope

(E) Last year the average number of passengers per flown plane was significantly lower than that of previous years. nothing to do with average no of passengers. out of scope

Spoiler: :: OA
A

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Re: Air travel is becoming increasingly more dangerous. In the last year  [#permalink]

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New post 05 May 2011, 07:39
1
(A) Since the volume of air traffic has been increasing all the time, an increase in the number of deaths due to collisions does not necessarily mean greater danger.
Only statement which says passenger casuality per air trqavel may actually have reduced, hence air travel is as safe as before if not safer.


(B) The increase in collisions can be explained by statistical coincidence, hijackings, and unusual weather.
This actually supports that Air travel has become more dangerous ,with supporting factors such as hijackings etc.

(C) Mortality per passenger mile is lower for air travel than for any kind of surface transportation.
Incorrect comparison between air and other modes of travel, comparison is between air travel of current and previous years.

(D) The increase in deaths due to collision in air travel has proceeded at a rate identical to that for deaths in all other major forms of transportation.
Incorrect comparison between air and other modes of travel, comparison is between air travel of current and previous years.

(E) Last year the average number of passengers per flown plane was significantly lower than that of previous years.
This actually supports the claim that Air travel has become more dangerous. With less people per aircraft and increase in the number of casualities, it means that more number of planes are involved in mishaps.
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Re: Air travel is becoming increasingly more dangerous. In the last year  [#permalink]

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New post 05 May 2011, 07:52
Air travel is becoming increasingly more dangerous. In the last year there have been seven major collisions resulting in over 700 deaths, more deaths than in any previous year.

Which statement, if true, would most weaken the argument above?

(A) Since the volume of air traffic has been increasing all the time, an increase in the number of deaths due to collisions does not necessarily mean greater danger.
(B) The increase in collisions can be explained by statistical coincidence, hijackings, and unusual weather.
(C) Mortality per passenger mile is lower for air travel than for any kind of surface transportation.
(D) The increase in deaths due to collision in air travel has proceeded at a rate identical to that for deaths in all other major forms of transportation.
(E) Last year the average number of passengers per flown plane was significantly lower than that of previous years.

----
The gist of the argument / paraphrase is that air travel is becoming more dangerous on the basis of evidence of a major death toll last year vs. previous years from air collisions. We need to recognize the causal link. To weaken this link, one would expect the right answer to talk about alternative reasons for the conclusion (air travel more dangerous) or to the premise (collisions) or shows that the conclusion and premise can coexist peacefully. Anything that really challenges this link without requiring additional information or logical leap. That in mind, lets attack the answer choices:

A) sounds promising. Lets keep as contender and get back to it later
B) We dont care about explanation for collisions. We are concerned about their interpretation as increased danger. In any case, it does strengthen the argument if anything else
C) We dont care about comparison. It still be high enough to be dangerous or it could be low. We dont know
D) We are not concerned with comparison. The conclusion does not say it is the most dangerous form of transportation, and we dont know other rates. We are forced to assume, so out
E) Intriguing, rather strengthen but need to assume anyway.

Seems A is best of all.

Hope this is helpful.
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New post 05 May 2011, 10:48
Logically, IMHO the best answer is A.

B - Weakens the argument vs *other* forms of transport, just doesn't weaken the argument when simply talking about *air* transport, which is the subject at hand.
C - That's well and good, but (getting back to topic) the danger to air travel might nonetheless still be getting more dangerous.
D - Fine, but then by extension of the argument *all* forms of transport are getting more dangerous.
E - This actually strengthens the argument (ie, if fewer people are flying *and* collisions are up).

If there's any hole in my reasoning, I welcome comments. As I can benefit from it too. :-)
(Thanks in advance!)
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New post 05 May 2011, 12:15
A. Logical weakener
B. out of scope
C. out of scope
D. out of scope
E. Strengthens the argument
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New post 06 May 2011, 01:55
IMO A

Conclusion: Air travel is becoming increasingly more dangerous.
Evidence: In the last year there have been seven major collisions resulting in over 700 deaths, more deaths than in any previous year.

Which statement, if true, would most weaken the argument above?

(A) Since the volume of air traffic has been increasing all the time, an increase in the number of deaths due to collisions does not necessarily mean greater danger. --> Weaken the argument.
An increase of death people from air traffic last year does not mean that air travel is more dangerous. We should compare it in terms of % rather than number.
Last year: 700 deaths, the volume of air traffic 2 Million ---> 350 ppm.
Previous year: Let's assume 500 deaths, the volume of air traffic 1 Million --> 500 ppm.
As a result, percentage of air traffic death per fly in last year (350 ppm) is lower than that in previous year(500 ppm).

(B) The increase in collisions can be explained by statistical coincidence, hijackings, and unusual weather.
--> The given information described the cause of 700 deaths from air travel in last year but did not weaken the argument.
(C) Mortality per passenger mile is lower for air travel than for any kind of surface transportation.
--> Out of Scope - the argument discussed only air traffic transportation.
(D) The increase in deaths due to collision in air travel has proceeded at a rate identical to that for deaths in all other major forms of transportation.
--> Out of Scope - The argument did not compare death rate in air travel with other types of transportation.
(E) Last year the average number of passengers per flown plane was significantly lower than that of previous years.
--> Strengthen the argument
Last year: 700 deaths, the volume of air traffic 0.7 Million ---> 1,000 ppm.
Previous year: Let's assume 500 deaths, the volume of air traffic 1 Million --> 500 ppm.
As a result, percentage of air traffic death per fly in last year (1,000 ppm) is higher than that in previous year(500 ppm).

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New post 07 May 2011, 00:51
conclusion -Air traveli sdangerous
Assumtion-no acidents/deaths in other modes of travel
hence -c
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New post 09 May 2011, 18:28
I went with D, but later realized that author is not talking about other modes of travel
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Re: Air travel is becoming increasingly more dangerous. In the last year  [#permalink]

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New post 15 Oct 2016, 00:53
jaxtor wrote:
Air travel is becoming increasingly more dangerous. In the last year there have been seven major collisions resulting in over 700 deaths, more deaths than in any previous year.

Which statement, if true, would most weaken the argument above?


(A) Since the volume of air traffic has been increasing all the time, an increase in the number of deaths due to collisions does not necessarily mean greater danger.

(B) The increase in collisions can be explained by statistical coincidence, hijackings, and unusual weather.

(C) Mortality per passenger mile is lower for air travel than for any kind of surface transportation.

(D) The increase in deaths due to collision in air travel has proceeded at a rate identical to that for deaths in all other major forms of transportation.

(E) Last year the average number of passengers per flown plane was significantly lower than that of previous years.

Guys please explain this one with the fullest possible details and explanations....

Best R-
Jaxtor


Premise : Last year , there were 7 major collissions >> 700 deaths , more deaths than in any previous year
Conclusion : Therefore , Air travel is increasingly becoming dangerous

Pre thinking : To undermine this conclusion , we have to think on the lines of more deaths. What if the death per plane has decreased in the last year ?
this would mean that the number of airplanes have significantly increased than previous years . With this in mind , lets look at the options


A) Since the volume of air traffic has been increasing all the time, an increase in the number of deaths due to collisions does not necessarily mean greater danger.
This echos what we thought in pre thinking . correct

(B) The increase in collisions can be explained by statistical coincidence, hijackings, and unusual weather.
this tells us the reason for deaths , not in any way helps us undermine that air travel is becoming dangerous . Moreover , this partially supports the argument

(C) Mortality per passenger mile is lower for air travel than for any kind of surface transportation.
Irrelevant as it compares air travel with other transportation .the argument only talks about air travel

(D) The increase in deaths due to collision in air travel has proceeded at a rate identical to that for deaths in all other major forms of transportation.
Same error as in option (C)

(E) Last year the average number of passengers per flown plane was significantly lower than that of previous years.
This strengthens the argument as the # of passengers are less , still the deaths are more >> this supports the fact that Air travel is becoming increasingly dangerous
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