Around the World in 80 Questions (Day 1): Using observations about how

Question

Using observations about how spouses spoke to each other, a researcher correctly predicted 90 percent of the divorces that occurred among the 200 couples he studied. Clearly, therefore, the way spouses speak to each other is an important determinant of how their relationships turn out.

The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the above argument?

The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the above argument?

A. In what proportion of divorces among the studied couples did the researcher not predict a divorce?
B. Are there factors that have a greater impact on the longevity of a marriage than how much time, on average, spouses communicate with each other daily?
C. Were there any couples among the 200 studied by the researcher who spoke to each other well but got divorced?
D. In what proportion of the cases in which the studied couples did not get divorced did the researcher predict a divorce? 
E. Did the researcher himself make the observations about how couples talked to each other?

Bunuel · Accepted Answer

Target Test Prep Official Explanation:

The argument concludes that “the way spouses speak to each other is an important determinant of how their relationships turn out.”

That conclusion is based on the fact that “Using observations about how spouses spoke to each other, a researcher correctly predicted 90 percent of the divorces that occurred among the 200 couples he studied.”

To correctly answer the question, we need to find a choice the answer to which helps with evaluating the likelihood that the conclusion is correct.

(A) In what proportion of divorces among the studied couples did the scholar not predict a divorce?

The answer to this question would not provide any information we don’t already have. After all, if, as the passage says, the researcher predicted 90 percent of the divorces, then we know that the researcher did not predict 10 percent of the divorces since 100 percent - 90 percent = 10 percent.

(B) Are there factors that have a greater impact on the longevity of a marriage than how much time, on average, spouses communicate with each other daily?

The answer to this question is irrelevant. Regardless of whether other factors have a greater impact on the longevity of a marriage, it could be the case that the way spouses speak to each other is an important determinant of how their relationships turn out.

(C) Were there any couples among the 200 studied by the researcher who spoke to each other well but got divorced?

Notice that, even if some couples spoke well to each other and got divorced, it still could be the case that the way spouses speak to each other is an important determinant of how their relationships turn out. The conclusion is not that speaking well solves all relationship problems. Also, “any” could be just one or two couples.

Also, the support for the conclusion is that the researcher predicted 90 percent of the divorces that occurred. So, we already know that 10 percent of the divorces were not predicted through observation of how the people spoke to each other. Thus, the answer to this question would not provide any useful new information.

(D) In what proportion of the cases in which the studied couples did not get divorced did the researcher predict a divorce?

Correct Answer

Notice that, if the answer to this question is “a large proportion,” then the support for the conclusion is weakened.. After all, in that case, it appears that the researcher simply predicted that most of the couples, both those who did get divorced and those who didn’t, would get divorced.

So, in that case, the fact that the researcher correctly predicted the divorces is meaningless. The researcher’s method didn’t really work. He just predicted that most people would get divorced, and his prediction seemed correct in the cases of people who did get divorced.

So, if the answer to this question is “a high proportion,” the fact that the researcher predicted the divorces doesn’t provide much support for the conclusion.

On the other hand, if the answer to this question is “a small proportion,” then the researcher’s method seems to work well, and the argument is strengthened.

Thus the answer to this question is helpful in evaluating the argument.

(E) Did the researcher himself make the observations about how couples talked to each other?

The answer to this question is not helpful because the observations and predictions remain essentially the same regardless of whether the researcher himself made the observations.

Answer: D

NiranjanaV · Answer

Using observations about how spouses spoke to each other, a researcher correctly predicted 90 percent of the divorces that occurred among the 200 couples he studied. Clearly, therefore, the way spouses speak to each other is an important determinant of how their relationships turn out.

The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the above argument?

The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the above argument?

A. In what proportion of divorces among the studied couples did the researcher not predict a divorce?  Does not introduce any new data - it is 10% 
B. Are there factors that have a greater impact on the longevity of a marriage than how much time, on average, spouses communicate with each other daily? -  there could be and that would not impact the evaluation (how spouses speak is important but not the only determinant)  
C. Were there any couples among the 200 studied by the researcher who spoke to each other well but got divorced? -  this question is focusing on the 10% that the researcher got wrong. The use of the word "any" reduces the impact of this question 
 D. In what proportion of the cases in which the studied couples did not get divorced did the researcher predict a divorce? - A high proportion would weaken the weaken the question while a low proportion will strengthen the question. Therefore, it is very useful to evaluate this question. (CORRECT) 
E. Did the researcher himself make the observations about how couples talked to each other? -  does not impact the argument

missionmba2025 · Answer

The researcher supports his argument via the high percentage i.e. 90% of the divorces that occurred. But if the prediction itself is low, then we have a reason to doubt the researchers conclusion.

Say if the number of divorces that occurred were 10 and 9 of them were on the researchers prediction list. Now say the list itself was 180 , then the 90% makes no sense. Hence, we need to find out if the list itself was correct.

A. In what proportion of divorces among the studied couples did the researcher not predict a divorce?

This is opposite of what we are looking at . We are looking at how many did the researchers predict. Trap choice.

B. Are there factors that have a greater impact on the longevity of a marriage than how much time, on average, spouses communicate with each other daily?

Out of scope. We are looking to find out how many divorces did the researcher predict. We can eliminate B.

C. Were there any couples among the 200 studied by the researcher who spoke to each other well but got divorced?

Irrelevant to the conclusion that we are trying to get an answer of. Eliminate C.

D. In what proportion of the cases in which the studied couples did not get divorced did the researcher predict a divorce? 
 
This is a good option. If the answer to this question is high, it makes us doubt the researchers conclusion.. However if the proportion is low, then we have a reason to believe the researcher. Keep D.

E. Did the researcher himself make the observations about how couples talked to each other?

Irrelevant to the conclusion. Eliminate E.

IMO D

TargetKellogg2024 · Answer

Using observations about how spouses spoke to each other, a researcher correctly predicted 90 percent of the divorces that occurred among the 200 couples he studied. Clearly, therefore, the way spouses speak to each other is an important determinant of how their relationships turn out.

The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the above argument?

The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the above argument?

The argument states that the way spouses speak to each other is an important determinant of how their relationships turn out. The researcher correctly predicted 90% of the divorces that occurred among the 200 couples he studied. However, this does not necessarily mean that the way spouses speak to each other is the only important determinant of how their relationships turn out.

To evaluate the argument, we need to know how many of the couples who did not get divorced were also predicted to get divorced by the researcher. If the researcher predicted that a large proportion of the couples who did not get divorced would get divorced, then this would cast doubt on the argument that the way spouses speak to each other is an important determinant of how their relationships turn out.

A. In what proportion of divorces among the studied couples did the researcher not predict a divorce? - It would tell us how many of the divorces that occurred among the studied couples were not predicted by the researcher. However, this does not tell us anything about the couples who did not get divorced.

B. Are there factors that have a greater impact on the longevity of a marriage than how much time, on average, spouses communicate with each other daily? - It asks about factors other than how much time spouses communicate with each other daily. This question is outside the scope of the argument, which is specifically about how the way spouses speak to each other affects their relationships.

C. Were there any couples among the 200 studied by the researcher who spoke to each other well but got divorced? - It asks about couples who spoke to each other well but got divorced. This question is also outside the scope of the argument, which is specifically about how the way spouses speak to each other affects their relationships.

D. In what proportion of the cases in which the studied couples did not get divorced did the researcher predict a divorce? - Correct!

E. Did the researcher himself make the observations about how couples talked to each other? - It asks about who made the observations about how couples talked to each other. This question is irrelevant to the argument, which is about whether or not the way spouses speak to each other is an important determinant of how their relationships turn out.

pintukr · Answer

Using observations about how spouses spoke to each other, a researcher correctly predicted 90 percent of the divorces that occurred among the 200 couples he studied. Clearly, therefore, the way spouses speak to each other is an important determinant of how their relationships turn out.

The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the above argument?

Conclusion . the way spouses speak to each other is an important determinant of how their relationships turn out.

Here, the conclusion has been reached considering only a part of the sample population, ie, the divorces that occurred among the 200 couples he studied. If there were other cases (possibly, large number of cases) wherein the studied couples did not get divorced despite researcher predicting a divorce), then the conclusion that 'the way spouses speak to each other is an important determinant of how their relationships turn out' will not be valid.

The answer to which of the following would be most useful for evaluating the above argument?

A. In what proportion of divorces among the studied couples did the researcher not predict a divorce?
 The prompt highlights only the 'divorce' cases; other cases wherein the studied couples did not get divorced despite researcher predicting a divorce also needs to be studied to evaluate the argument in the entirety.

B. Are there factors that have a greater impact on the longevity of a marriage than how much time, on average, spouses communicate with each other daily?
 Other factors' impact is beyond the scope for.....the evaluation of the argument.

C. Were there any couples among the 200 studied by the researcher who spoke to each other well but got divorced?
 use of 'any' severely limits the scope of the evaluation of the argument

D. In what proportion of the cases in which the studied couples did not get divorced did the researcher predict a divorce?
 If there were other cases (possibly, large number of cases) wherein the studied couples did not get divorced despite researcher predicting a divorce), then the conclusion that 'the way spouses speak to each other is an important determinant of how their relationships turn out' will not be valid. However, if there were other cases (possibly, too small a number) wherein the studied couples did not get divorced despite researcher predicting a divorce), then the conclusion that 'the way spouses speak to each other is an important determinant of how their relationships turn out' will remain valid...CORRECT answer, since its an ideal evaluation parameter

E. Did the researcher himself make the observations about how couples talked to each other? 
 The observations are to be evaluated. The 'doer' of the observations is immaterial.

(D) is the CORRECT answer

VerbalBot · Answer

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Around the World in 80 Questions (Day 1): Using observations about how

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