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Question is: Which one of the following general principles most strongly supports the recommendation?

Recommendation is: "our scientists probability of extraterrestrial life should be generated from estimates of the number of planets like Earth and the likelihood of carbon-based life on those planets"
AKA: Scientist's probability of (E) should be generated from A and B, known estimations.

Why? "As far as we know, Earth is the only planet on which life has evolved, and all known life forms are carbon-based."
AKA: A and B quantities are known to exist with 100% certainty. C and D might exist, but we don't know for sure so it's 0% certainty.

The option the supports the most the recommendation will more closely support the WHY.

(A) There is no good reason to think that unobserved phenomena closely resemble those that have been observed.

C D which we cant observed aren't similar to A and B, which we can observe, therefore probability of E should be done with A and B.
This is wrong because it doesn't matter if C an D are similar to A and B; they're not including in P(E) because we don't know if C and D exist.

(B) A scientific theory that explains a broad range of phenomena is preferable to a competing theory that explains only some of those phenomena.

Irrelevant. Author is not proposing adherence to scientific theory to support his claim. We might assume that because he recommends to scientist that this will support this claim, but that is a trap.

(C) It is preferable for scientists to restrict their studies to phenomena that are observable and forego making estimates about unobservable things.
Scientist's probability of (E) should be generated from A and B, known estimations,....because it is better that scientist restrict their studies to phenomenas that are observable.... 
This is the tricky one because it has the word restric and scientist, which one could inferred are related to passage. However, this option doesn't given a direct reason to follow the recomendation. Instead it's appealing at what studies should limit themselves to. Also, like Option A, it talks about observable/unobservable things, which doesn't have the same level of certainty as "known" and therefore doesn't offer a strong reason why P(E) should come from known things.  


(D) A scientific theory that explains observed phenomena on the basis of a few principles that are independent of each other is preferable to a theory that explains those same phenomena on the basis of many independent principles.

Irrelevant. Author is not proposing adherence to scientific theory to support his claim. We might assume that because he recommends to scientist that this will support this claim, but that is a trap.


(E) Estimations of probability that are more closely tied to what is known are preferable to those that are less closely tied to what is known.

Scientist's probability of (E) should be generated from A and B, known estimations, because...... Scientist's probability of (E) generated from A and B are preferable to the ones that arent. 
This is the principle that directly supports the recommendation, and even says that the farther away the estimation is from "what-is-known" (100% certainty), the less preferable the estimation is. 
 
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