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Blood banks will shortly start to screen all donors for NANB hepatitis

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Blood banks will shortly start to screen all donors for NANB hepatitis  [#permalink]

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New post Updated on: 14 Jan 2019, 06:25
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Blood banks will shortly start to screen all donors for NANB hepatitis. Although the new screening tests are estimated to disqualify up to 5 percent of all prospective blood donors, they will still miss two-thirds of donors carrying NANB hepatitis. Therefore, about 10 percent of actual donors will still supply NANB-contaminated blood.

Which of the following inferences about the consequences of instituting the new tests is best supported by the passage above?


A) The incidence of new cases of NANB hepatitis is likely to go up by 10 percent.

B) Donations made by patients specifically for their own use are likely to become less frequent.

C) The demand for blood from blood banks is likely to fluctuate more strongly.

D) The blood supplies available from blood banks are likely to go down.

E) The number of prospective first-time donors is likely to go up by 5 percent.


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Originally posted by eybrj2 on 27 Jan 2012, 22:11.
Last edited by Bunuel on 14 Jan 2019, 06:25, edited 2 times in total.
Renamed the topic and edited the question.
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Re: Blood banks will shortly start to screen all donors for NANB hepatitis  [#permalink]

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New post 18 Aug 2015, 23:31
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eybrj2 wrote:
Blood banks will shortly start to screen all donors for NANB hepatitis. Although the new screening tests are estimated to disqualify up to 5 percent of all prospective blood donors, they will still miss two-thirds of donors carrying NANB hepatitis. Therefore, about 10 percent of actual donors will still supply NANB-contaminated blood.

Q) which of the follwoing inferences about the consequences of instituting the new tests is best supported by the passage above?

a) The incidence of new cases of NANB hepatitis is likely to go up by 10 percent.

b) Donations made by patients specifically for their own use are likely to become less frequent.

c) The demand for blood from blood banks is likely to fluctuate more strongly.

d) The blood supplies available from blood banks are likely to go down.

e) The number of prospective first-time donors is likely to go up by 5 percent.


Quote:
At first I picked A thinking, suppose 10 people comprise 2/3rd of the people who carry NABH and donate blood ---> They donate to 10 people at least ---> those people get NABH as well (now NABH must be infectious otherwise why are Blood banks testing to find whether ppl have NABH or not)
So increase of 10 people --> ~ 10% increase in NABH infected people.

After knowing I picked the wrong answer, my fallacy is probably this:
We don't know the total number of NABH infected cases: it may be 20 or it may be 10 ---> supposing it is 20, then 10 people addition is ---> 2% increase not 10% OR if it is 100 cases of infections ---> then it is 10% ----> % increase may be 2-10% or more ---> this makes the option A to be MAY BE TRUE.

A conclusion MUST BE TRUE ---> D) says the blood supplies will decrease ---> YES because people are disqualified, so less blood is available from all the possible donors.

Please do let me know if I am right. And also, How i may improve in ASSUMPTION CR, I also take around 3:30 mins in medium-tough questions.


The problem with (A) is that the argument does not give us enough information to deduce that.

10% of actual donors will supply NANB contaminated blood. But does that mean that all this blood will be used? What if actually only 50% of the blood from a blood bank is used. Then the actual incidence of disease may increase by only 5% (assuming homogenous distribution).
Also, what if NANB infected people are the ones who need blood most often from blood banks. In that case, we may find very few new cases.
Hence, increase in the incidence of disease is a big jump.

(D) is straight forward. 5% fewer people will be able to donate blood due to new tests and that means reduced supply is an effect of the new test.
In inference questions, simpler is usually better.

For discussions on assumption questions, check my blog:
http://www.veritasprep.com/blog/?s=assu ... er&x=0&y=0
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Re: Blood banks will shortly start to screen all donors for NANB hepatitis  [#permalink]

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New post 21 Apr 2018, 09:16
Straight D, new screening tests are estimated to disqualify up to 5 percent of all prospective blood donors. means less people will donate. less supply of blood.
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Re: Blood banks will shortly start to screen all donors for NANB hepatitis  [#permalink]

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New post 09 Apr 2019, 01:26
AjiteshArun ChiranjeevSingh VeritasKarishma aragonn
As per the question
Let's assume there are 100 people who donate blood
now 15 have NANB hepatitis 5 are removed from the screening. So 10 are left
Conclusion: Therefore, about 10 percent of actual donors will still supply NANB-contaminated blood.
It means the 5 people which are removed are replaced by new donors free from NANB hepatits
So how can we inder D ? since the donors remain the same
What's the flaw in my reasoning ?
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Re: Blood banks will shortly start to screen all donors for NANB hepatitis  [#permalink]

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New post 09 Apr 2019, 02:25
First, about this line --- It means the 5 people which are removed are replaced by new donors free from NANB hepatits --- this is not mentioned that these 5 will be replaced by new donors. new screening tests are estimated to disqualify up to 5 percent of all prospective blood donors. disqualify does not mean replaced.

2nd we need to --- inferences about the "consequences" of instituting the new tests.

pre-think - My pre-thoughts are --- 10 people will pass, and stay in system. So bank will keep providing contaminated blood or For moral or other issues they will be closed. D is on these lines. Let me know if you need help in eliminating other choices.
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Re: Blood banks will shortly start to screen all donors for NANB hepatitis  [#permalink]

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New post 09 Apr 2019, 02:34
teaserbae wrote:
AjiteshArun ChiranjeevSingh VeritasKarishma aragonn
As per the question
Let's assume there are 100 people who donate blood
now 15 have NANB hepatitis 5 are removed from the screening. So 10 are left
Conclusion: Therefore, about 10 percent of actual donors will still supply NANB-contaminated blood.
It means the 5 people which are removed are replaced by new donors free from NANB hepatits
So how can we inder D ? since the donors remain the same
What's the flaw in my reasoning ?



There is a problem in the highlighted sentence. How do you figure that they will be replaced by new donors? The argument says "5 percent of all prospective blood donors will be disqualified"
From where will the new donors come?
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Re: Blood banks will shortly start to screen all donors for NANB hepatitis  [#permalink]

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New post 12 Sep 2019, 10:27
VeritasKarishma wrote:
eybrj2 wrote:
Blood banks will shortly start to screen all donors for NANB hepatitis. Although the new screening tests are estimated to disqualify up to 5 percent of all prospective blood donors, they will still miss two-thirds of donors carrying NANB hepatitis. Therefore, about 10 percent of actual donors will still supply NANB-contaminated blood.

Q) which of the follwoing inferences about the consequences of instituting the new tests is best supported by the passage above?

a) The incidence of new cases of NANB hepatitis is likely to go up by 10 percent.

b) Donations made by patients specifically for their own use are likely to become less frequent.

c) The demand for blood from blood banks is likely to fluctuate more strongly.

d) The blood supplies available from blood banks are likely to go down.

e) The number of prospective first-time donors is likely to go up by 5 percent.


Quote:
At first I picked A thinking, suppose 10 people comprise 2/3rd of the people who carry NABH and donate blood ---> They donate to 10 people at least ---> those people get NABH as well (now NABH must be infectious otherwise why are Blood banks testing to find whether ppl have NABH or not)
So increase of 10 people --> ~ 10% increase in NABH infected people.

After knowing I picked the wrong answer, my fallacy is probably this:
We don't know the total number of NABH infected cases: it may be 20 or it may be 10 ---> supposing it is 20, then 10 people addition is ---> 2% increase not 10% OR if it is 100 cases of infections ---> then it is 10% ----> % increase may be 2-10% or more ---> this makes the option A to be MAY BE TRUE.

A conclusion MUST BE TRUE ---> D) says the blood supplies will decrease ---> YES because people are disqualified, so less blood is available from all the possible donors.

Please do let me know if I am right. And also, How i may improve in ASSUMPTION CR, I also take around 3:30 mins in medium-tough questions.


The problem with (A) is that the argument does not give us enough information to deduce that.

10% of actual donors will supply NANB contaminated blood. But does that mean that all this blood will be used? What if actually only 50% of the blood from a blood bank is used. Then the actual incidence of disease may increase by only 5% (assuming homogenous distribution).
Also, what if NANB infected people are the ones who need blood most often from blood banks. In that case, we may find very few new cases.
Hence, increase in the incidence of disease is a big jump.

(D) is straight forward. 5% fewer people will be able to donate blood due to new tests and that means reduced supply is an effect of the new test.
In inference questions, simpler is usually better.

For discussions on assumption questions, check my blog:
http://www.veritasprep.com/blog/?s=assu ... er&x=0&y=0




I was also about to choose 'd'.

got carried away with the inefcted word of 'A'
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Re: Blood banks will shortly start to screen all donors for NANB hepatitis  [#permalink]

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New post 10 Nov 2019, 07:34
I haven't found a clear winner. Isn't this a clear must be true / inference question?

So the stem -> should lead us to an airtight option?

Does the "likely" make the difference here? VeritasKarishma
If the answer choice would say "blood supplies will go down", would that make the answer choice incorrect?

But the adverb "likely" broadens the scope and therefore it is a suitable inference?

Thank you!
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Re: Blood banks will shortly start to screen all donors for NANB hepatitis  [#permalink]

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New post 05 Dec 2019, 02:14
Hi Experts,

I have doubt on D.

Can we readily assume that there will no significantly more people that would like to donate blood?
If it is not the case, the blood supply can still increase.

Please explain.

Thank you.
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Blood banks will shortly start to screen all donors for NANB hepatitis  [#permalink]

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New post 05 Dec 2019, 13:15
ballest127 wrote:
Hi Experts,

I have doubt on D.

Can we readily assume that there will no significantly more people that would like to donate blood?
If it is not the case, the blood supply can still increase.

Please explain.

Thank you.

The question states, "Which of the following inferences about the consequences of instituting the new tests is best supported by the passage above?" So we don't need to PROVE that (D) is true; as long as the information in the passage supports (D) more than any other choice, we've found our winner. And by POE, we can see that (D) is the best bet.

Also, notice the wording of (D) itself: "The blood supplies available from blood banks are likely to go down." (D) does not say the blood supplies will DEFINITELY go down. The passage suggests that blood supplies will probably go down, so (D) is spot on.

I hope that helps!
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Blood banks will shortly start to screen all donors for NANB hepatitis   [#permalink] 05 Dec 2019, 13:15
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