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705-805 (Hard)|   Weaken|                     
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We need something that raises the most serious doubt regarding the effectiveness of the government's plan to increase the amount of money available for development loans for businesses:-

(A) When levels of personal retirement savings increase, consumer borrowing always increases correspondingly – weakener – as it says if people put bigger portions of their incomes into their retirement savings account, then, they are more likely to borrow money. Thus, less money will be available for loans for businesses.
(B) The increased tax revenue the government would receive as a result of business expansion would not offset the loss in revenue from personal income taxes during the first year of the plan – irrelevant comparison
(C) Even with tax incentives, some people will choose not to increase their levels of retirement savings – trap – irrelevant – classic statistical data trap
(D) Bankers generally will not continue to lend money to businesses whose prospective earnings are insufficient to meet their loan repayment schedules – strengthener – removes a potential hindrance in the success of the plan
(E) The modified tax structure would give all taxpayers, regardless of their incomes, the same tax savings for a given increase in their retirement savings – irrelevant – we don’t care about how tax savings people enjoy

Boil it down:
We have a problem
Government proposes a plan to solve the problem

Conclusion : the solution will solve the problem

Gap:
· Will the solution really solve the problem?
· Will the solution aggravate the problem?
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One point that is confusing is , whom does borrowers refer to? Businesses? or just borrowers?
A. consumer borrowing increases correspondingly. but increase in consumer borrowing is decrease in busniess development loans is a big assumption here.

But yes. Between A, C. A is the better option. not a clear option though

zhenmaster
Business are suffering because of a lack of money available for development loans. To help businesses, the government plans to modify the income-tax structure in order to induce individual taxpayers to put a larger portion of their incomes into retirement savings accounts, because as more money is deposited in such accounts, more money becomes available to borrowers.

Which of the following, if true, raises the most serious doubt regarding the effectiveness of the government's plan to increase the amount of money available for development loans for businesses?


(A) When levels of personal retirement savings increase, consumer borrowing always increases correspondingly.

(B) The increased tax revenue the government would receive as a result of business expansion would not offset the loss in revenue from personal income taxes during the first year of the plan.

(C) Even with tax incentives, some people will choose not to increase their levels of retirement savings.

(D) Bankers generally will not continue to lend money to businesses whose prospective earnings are insufficient to meet their loan repayment schedules.

(E) The modified tax structure would give all taxpayers, regardless of their incomes, the same tax savings for a given increase in their retirement savings.
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if option (C) said "Even with tax incentives, most people will choose not to increase their levels of retirement savings". Then still it wouldn't weaken the goal of the argument, right? Because as long as even few people increase their retirement savings, more money becomes available for business lending. Had the argument's goal been to increase money available for business lending significantly and the passage said that no person is a outlier who deposits a huge sum to retirement savings, then most people choosing not to deposit in retirement savings would be a weakener of achieving the goal.

GMATNinja please share thoughts.
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Hi GulfTube,

You've actually put your finger on the exact knob this question turns. This is the same variant avigutman tackled earlier in the thread (the "some - most" swap), so let's run it carefully.

Here's the key: the stem doesn't ask whether the plan works at all - it asks what "raises the most serious doubt regarding the effectiveness" of the plan. The word effectiveness builds degree right into the goal. We're not grading the plan pass/fail; we're asking how well it achieves its purpose of increasing money for development loans.

Once you see that, watch what happens as we turn the quantity word:

- "some" won't increase savings - that leaves the rest (possibly almost everyone) increasing savings. The plan still pumps lots of new money in. No real doubt. - not a weakener.
- "most" won't increase savings - now the large majority ignore the incentive, and only a small slice respond. The pool of new money is small, so the plan is far less effective at its stated job. - that does raise doubt.

So your instinct - "even a few depositors means some money becomes available" - is true, but it answers the wrong question. Some money trickling in is exactly what makes a plan ineffective, even if it's not totally useless. As avigutman put it: if we learned only one taxpayer would respond, we'd absolutely doubt the plan's effectiveness.

Your own escape hatch - "unless the goal were to increase funds significantly" - is already baked in by the word effectiveness. You don't need the passage to add "significantly"; a plan that barely moves the needle is by definition not effective.

That's also why (A) still beats a hypothetical "most" version of (C): (A) says the new money is always siphoned off by consumers - a guaranteed, complete drain - whereas "most won't save" only shrinks the inflow. (A) attacks the mechanism harder.



GulfTube
if option (C) said "Even with tax incentives, most people will choose not to increase their levels of retirement savings". Then still it wouldn't weaken the goal of the argument, right? Because as long as even few people increase their retirement savings, more money becomes available for business lending. Had the argument's goal been to increase money available for business lending significantly and the passage said that no person is a outlier who deposits a huge sum to retirement savings, then most people choosing not to deposit in retirement savings would be a weakener of achieving the goal.

GMATNinja please share thoughts.
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