A perhaps self-aggrandizing theory: the massive round 1 deferrals, are, in part, a yield management strategy. MIT is picking off the people they suspect would go somewhere else (the H/S/W of the word) and trying to smoke them out. MIT, like most of the schools ranked 5-10, is freaked out about having their yield take a hit, which would drop them in the rankings). My guess is the chances are pretty good if you're deferred, equally as good as any other round 2 applicant, and perhaps better (particularly if you make a tangible commitment by agreeing to stay on the list/send a commitment letter, etc). They even specifically ask you to withdraw if you accept a place somewhere else, which is a completely incoherent request if MIT is your top choice. Hey Rod, if you're begging for more time because you couldn't get to making a decision on my application--are you going to refund me my $250 if I pull out now? Didn't think so.