antelB wrote:
So you're saying that 2+2'ers who were admited 2 years ago are already included in the 450 numbers? So you're saying that approximately 400 people were admitted in each of R1 and R2 then.
The other thing is I wonder why the WL is so small this year compared with those of previous years (200-250) after R2.
Exactly, I'm making that assumption based on the HBS update saying "90% of the class is determined by the end of R2" So it's safe to assume ~800 seats have been filled. I had no insight as to the # of WLs in previous years thanks for that.
jumbalaya112 wrote:
You forgot to include R1 waitlisters who were dinged in your analysis. It'll lower your WL yields to something more reasonable. Sorry to be a debbie downer!
Sure, some R1 WLs were Dinged. So maybe there are more WLs per round, but all the WLs got an e-mail stating that there are 100 people on the WL. So the total number of WLs is the same. Are you saying there are less open spots?
I like the analysis, some more thoughts:
1. Assume 900 is the target matriculating class size this year (895 in 2005, 937 in 2011, 903 in 2012) based on 1000 admits
2. Working back from 900, 810 spots (90%) will be taken by (a) 2+2 (100), (b) R1 (355), and (c) R2 (355), which leaves only 90 spots (10%) for R3 and WLers
Question: Is this 90% too low for this year as there were no 2+2's in previous years? Also, what's the source of the 100 2+2 number, could it be higher?
Based on the above, should the number be 90 instead of 150 spots left for R3 and WLers? Obviously no idea what the % share is for each respective pool, but this is what it looks like:
- 68 R3 (75% of 90 spots); 22 WL
- 45 R3 (50% of 90 spots); 45 WL
- 23 R3 (25% of 90 spots); 67 WL
Sandy - what's your view independent of these numbers given that WL numbers from previous years were higher?