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Bunuel
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­Total Outcome = probability of selecting a lobster from either A or B

Probability to select Lobster from A =28/40*1/2= 7/20
Probability to select Lobster from B = 12/40*1/2= 3/20

Total Outcome = 17/20+3/20= 10/20

Favourable outcome = Probability to select Lobster from A =28/40*1/2= 7/20

= 7/20 / 10/20 = 7/10

In this case the likelyhood of picking a tank is 50% or 1/2­
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The concept here is that probability gets updated with new information. It's the best approximation we can make with the available information.
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Pls guide where am I going wrong.

I think the answer should be 7/20, but the correct answer is 7/10.

My reasoning -
Probability of choosing a tank = 1/2
Probability of choosing lobster in tankA = 28/40 = 7/10

Total total probability of choosing lobster from tankA = 1/2 * 7/10 = 7/20
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farmania
Pls guide where am I going wrong.

I think the answer should be 7/20, but the correct answer is 7/10.

My reasoning -
Probability of choosing a tank = 1/2
Probability of choosing lobster in tankA = 28/40 = 7/10

Total total probability of choosing lobster from tankA = 1/2 * 7/10 = 7/20
­We already know that she chose a lobster, so we have to ignore the probability of her choosing crabs. Now, there are total 40 lobsters and out of these 28 are in Tank A, so the probability that she chose a lobster from Tank A is \(\frac{28}{40} = \frac{7}{10}\)­.
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We are tasked with finding the probability that a lobster pointed at by Susan is from Tank A, given that she points at a lobster.

Step 1: Total lobsters and crabs in each tank
Tank A: 28 lobsters and 12 crabs.
Total in Tank A = (28 + 12 = 40).
Tank B: 12 lobsters and 28 crabs.
Total in Tank B = (12 + 28 = 40).
Step 2: Total lobsters in both tanks
Total lobsters = (28 + 12 = 40).

Step 3: Probability of pointing at a lobster
The probability of pointing at a lobster from Tank A is proportional to the number of lobsters in Tank A divided by the total lobsters:
[
P(\text{Lobster from Tank A}) = \frac{\text{Lobsters in Tank A}}{\text{Total lobsters}} = \frac{28}{40}.
]

Step 4: Final probability calculation
The probability simplifies to:
[
P(\text{Lobster from Tank A}) = \frac{7}{10}.
]

Final Answer:
(A) ( \frac{7}{10} ).
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