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Don't be surprised if we have an unusually cold winter this year. The

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Don't be surprised if we have an unusually cold winter this year. The  [#permalink]

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New post 06 Oct 2019, 21:32
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A
B
C
D
E

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Question Stats:

25% (01:26) correct 75% (01:28) wrong based on 68 sessions

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Don't be surprised if we have an unusually cold winter this year. The last time we had a very cold winter was 12 years ago, and the last time before that was 12 years earlier, and the time before that was also 12 years earlier. Brace yourself for another cold one.

Which of the following would most strengthen this argument?

A. a chart showing the average temperature of winters over the last 11 years
B. a chart comparing the actual winter temperatures to predictions for the last 36 years
C. a chart with the average winter temperatures for the last 36 years
D. weather predictions from the National Weather Center
E. a discussion of weather patterns that create colder winters

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Re: Don't be surprised if we have an unusually cold winter this year. The  [#permalink]

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New post 06 Oct 2019, 22:57
The right answer is between choices B and C.

If you analyze the argument, you will realize that the conclusion is based on a trend whereby extremely cold winters occur in the 12th year. So the argument is drawing its conclusions based on the fact that every twelve years interval in the past there was an extremely cold winter occurring in the 12th year. And this is stated in both options B and C. Does the additional information in option B, which includes predictions compared with actual conditions over the last 36 years strengthen the argument? Sure, it does. Hence, option B strengthens the argument better than option C.

The right answer imo is B.
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Re: Don't be surprised if we have an unusually cold winter this year. The  [#permalink]

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New post 06 Oct 2019, 23:25
I might opt for E. D could be good but it can go either way. Depending upon the predictions it can either weaken or strengthen.

A B and C are of no use imo. We have been told about the recurrence. The chart mentioned in A may not help. The peaks and valleys in the last 11 year can strengthen by how? Nobody can say for sure until we look at it.
Same can be said for B. Even though we know the difference, we don't know what is predicted this year.

C might have been the second best answer, as it gives more data. But it strengthens the premise and not the conclusion

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Re: Don't be surprised if we have an unusually cold winter this year. The  [#permalink]

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New post 06 Oct 2019, 23:35
B. a chart comparing the actual winter temperatures to predictions for the last 36 years.....Helps us in deciding whether we can predict the winter temperature from the past data of actual and prediction comparison, also how relatable are they


OA:B

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Re: Don't be surprised if we have an unusually cold winter this year. The  [#permalink]

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New post 07 Oct 2019, 05:52
Don't be surprised if we have an unusually cold winter this year. The last time we had a very cold winter was 12 years ago, and the last time before that was 12 years earlier, and the time before that was also 12 years earlier. Brace yourself for another cold one.
Which of the following would most strengthen this argument?

Something that may help explain if predictions made for 12 years periods would definitely strengthen the argument.
B does that by comparing the actual and predicted temperatures.

A. a chart showing the average temperature of winters over the last 11 years - WRONG. Average temperature might have both highest temperature values and lowest values, something that might not be strictly associated to 12th or 24th or 36th year.
B. a chart comparing the actual winter temperatures to predictions for the last 36 years - CORRECT.
C. a chart with the average winter temperatures for the last 36 years - WRONG. Average concept same as option A with larger time period.
D. weather predictions from the National Weather Center - WRONG. it would be same as what the author is predicting about the weather. So does not explain, thus does not strengthens.
E. a discussion of weather patterns that create colder winters - WRONG. Neither weakens nor strengthens the argument.

IMO answer B.
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Re: Don't be surprised if we have an unusually cold winter this year. The  [#permalink]

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New post 07 Oct 2019, 21:06
Bunuel wrote:

Competition Mode Question



Don't be surprised if we have an unusually cold winter this year. The last time we had a very cold winter was 12 years ago, and the last time before that was 12 years earlier, and the time before that was also 12 years earlier. Brace yourself for another cold one.

Which of the following would most strengthen this argument?

A. a chart showing the average temperature of winters over the last 11 years
B. a chart comparing the actual winter temperatures to predictions for the last 36 years
C. a chart with the average winter temperatures for the last 36 years
D. weather predictions from the National Weather Center
E. a discussion of weather patterns that create colder winters


Official Explanation



Correct Answer: D

The conclusion of the argument is that we should expect an unusually cold winter because we are in the twelfth year of a cycle in which every twelfth year is unusually cold. Although the 12-year cycle might indeed have existed for the last 36 years, it goes against our understanding of weather that such a pattern will continue. In all likelihood, the fact that the twelfth year has been unusually cold for the last 36 years is coincidence, not a set meteorological pattern. Thus, the information that would most strengthen the argument is predictions from the National Weather Center, which uses advanced forecasting technology and analysis of existing weather patterns to predict the weather and could estimate the general tenor of the approaching season. The charts in choices a through c would be useful in proving that such a pattern has existed the last 36 years, but they do not provide strong evidence of the weather to come. A discussion of weather patterns (choice e) would be informative, but it would not strengthen the argument about the approaching winter weather.
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Re: Don't be surprised if we have an unusually cold winter this year. The   [#permalink] 07 Oct 2019, 21:06
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