Intern
Joined: 07 Feb 2015
Posts: 11
Given Kudos: 9
Location: India
Concentration: General Management, Marketing
GPA: 4
WE:Information Technology (Consulting)
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21 Nov 2015, 14:05
PROMPT:
“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age
60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however,
declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number
of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for
coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider
transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”
The argument suggests that the author should consider transferring
investment from Cola Loca to Early bird because studies suggest that
an average coffee drinker's consumption of coffee increases with age
and Cola consumption decreases with age.Also, as the trend has been
stable for 40 years and the population of of older adults will
increase over next 20 years.Author concluded transferring its
investment from Cola Loca to Early bird. In making the above
conclusion, Author fails fails to provide substantive evidence to be
able to prove or even support the main conclusion from the given
premises.The argument is flawed as it omits some very important
considerations necessary to get a complete view of the described
scenario.
First, The argument assumes that the trend which has been
stable for past 20 years will remain the same in future.If a new study
comes up which shows drinking coffee will lead to increase in cancer
in old age people.This can change the trend as old people will stop
consuming coffee .
Second, the argument claims that number of adults
will significantly increase in coming years but provide no information
about total population and also about young adults.It can happen that
number of births increase in coming 5 years as the government plans to
boost the population.So, government launched a scheme for providing
family bonus to every family that have more than 3 children.
Lastly,
the argument considers the two trend i.e drinking coffee and drinking
cola to be correlated.It may be the trends are not correlated as the
study collected data only from a city in which people don't participate
actively in the surveys.
In summary, the argument is extremely flawed
and hence, weak and unconvincing for the reader.If the author would
have provided the information that the trend will continue as the
Government has banned the production of Cola as high pesticide content
is found.It would be more convincing to follow the conclusion.