I can see why this graph interpretation question might be tricky - you need to connect the probability concept with what the graph is actually showing you. Let me walk you through this step-by-step.
Understanding What We're Looking ForThe question asks us to find when the probability is greater than 0.98 (or 98%) that someone with a cold will have a certain number of symptoms. Let's think about what this means: we need to be
almost certain about how many symptoms a person has.
Key Insight from the GraphNotice how the problem tells us something crucial: "lines for certain symptoms do not continue past a certain day because the chance that someone will have those symptoms beyond that day is
less than 1%." This is your golden clue!
When a line disappears from the graph, it means that symptom has become extremely rare (less than 1% chance).
Step-by-Step SolutionStep 1: Let's track what happens to each symptom by looking at the graph:
- Fever (squares): disappears around day 6-7
- Sore throat (hollow squares): disappears around day 8-9
- Nasal drainage (circles): continues through day 14
- Cough (dots): continues through day 14
Step 2: Now, check day 10 specifically:
- Nasal drainage: still present (around 22%)
- Cough: still present (around 29%)
- Sore throat: gone (below 1%)
- Fever: gone (below 1%)
Step 3: Here's the key reasoning:
On day 10, since sore throat and fever have probabilities less than 1%, the chance someone has either of these is practically zero. That means the
maximum number of symptoms someone can realistically have is 2 (just nasal drainage and/or cough).
The probability of having more than 2 symptoms is less than 2% (since that would require having a symptom with less than 1% chance). Therefore, the probability of having
"two or fewer" symptoms is greater than 98% (or 0.98).
Answer: Two or fewer symptoms on day 10
Notice how we didn't need "exactly two" because someone might have just one symptom or even zero symptoms. And "one or fewer" would be too restrictive since having two symptoms is still quite possible.
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You can check out the
step-by-step solution on Neuron by e-GMAT to master the systematic approach for interpreting probability graphs and learn the framework that applies to all similar data interpretation questions. You can also explore other GMAT official questions with detailed solutions on Neuron for structured practice
here.