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KarishmaB

I'm not very familiar with probability & combinations.
Could you please check if my logic is correct here?
Big thanks! :-)

Method 1. Probability + unarrange

1/8 (Andrew)
*
6/7*5/6*4/5 (Other 3 members excluding Karen)
*
4!/3!*1 (unarrange) (numerator: choose 4 people/ denominator: the order for the remaining members doesn't member


Method 2. Combination

1 * 6!/3!3! (Choose Andrew > Choose 3 members from the remaining 6. Their orders don't matter, so do the other 3 not selected)
_________
8!/4!4! ( Choose 4 members from the 8 in total. Their orders don't matter, so do the other 4 not selected)
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KarishmaB

I'm not very familiar with probability & combinations.
Could you please check if my logic is correct here?
Big thanks! :-)

Method 1. Probability + unarrange

1/8 (Andrew)
*
6/7*5/6*4/5 (Other 3 members excluding Karen)
*
4!/3!*1 (unarrange) (numerator: choose 4 people/ denominator: the order for the remaining members doesn't member


Method 2. Combination

1 * 6!/3!3! (Choose Andrew > Choose 3 members from the remaining 6. Their orders don't matter, so do the other 3 not selected)
_________
8!/4!4! ( Choose 4 members from the 8 in total. Their orders don't matter, so do the other 4 not selected)

Yes, both methods are correct. You might want to think in terms of "selection" or "selection and arrangement" too. If you break it into two steps, it simplifies your thought process because either you only select or you select and then arrange.
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­Poor Karen getting left out:

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Hi,
I did 2C1 x 6C3 in the numerator to select Andrew but not Karen. Why are we not doing 2C1 can someone explain?
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Bunuel
From a group of 8 volunteers, including Andrew and Karen, 4 people are to be selected at random to organize a charity event. What is the probability that Andrew will be among the 4 volunteers selected and Karen will not?

A. 3/7
B. 5/12
C. 27/70
D. 2/7
E. 9/35

We need Andrew and 3 others but not Karen in the group. The # of ways to choose 3 members out of 8-2=6 (all but Andrew and Karen) is \(C^3_6\), thus \(P=\frac{C^3_6}{C^4_8}=\frac{2}{7}\).

Answer: D.
Hi,
I did 2C1 x 6C3 in the numerator to select Andrew but not Karen. Why are we not doing 2C1 can someone explain?

You're choosing Andrew, and there's only 1 way to choose him, 1C1. No need for 2C1 since you're not choosing between two people. You're including Andrew, not selecting from Andrew and someone else.
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What am I doing wrong here?

From a group of 8 volunteers, including Andrew and Karen, 4 people are to be selected at random to organize a charity event. What is the probability that Andrew will be among the 4 volunteers selected and Karen will not?

For P(Andrew not Karen) it's 1 * 6 * 5 * 4

For total P it's 8 * 7 * 6 * 5

1 * 6 * 5 * 4 / 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 = 4 / 56 = 1 / 14

I'm off by a factor of 4, is there something that I'm missing?
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What am I doing wrong here?

From a group of 8 volunteers, including Andrew and Karen, 4 people are to be selected at random to organize a charity event. What is the probability that Andrew will be among the 4 volunteers selected and Karen will not?

For P(Andrew not Karen) it's 1 * 6 * 5 * 4

For total P it's 8 * 7 * 6 * 5

1 * 6 * 5 * 4 / 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 = 4 / 56 = 1 / 14

I'm off by a factor of 4, is there something that I'm missing?

Your denominator counts ordered selections, but your numerator counts only the cases in which Andrew is in one fixed position.

Andrew can be in any one of the 4 selected positions, so you are missing a factor of 4.

So the favorable count should be 4 * 1 * 6 * 5 * 4, not just 1 * 6 * 5 * 4.
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Hi eaat,

Your counting is almost perfect. The factor of 4 you're missing comes from one small inconsistency between your numerator and your denominator.

Look at what each part is counting:

- Denominator 8 × 7 × 6 × 5 is ordered - it counts every arrangement of 4 people across 4 distinct slots (1st pick, 2nd pick, 3rd pick, 4th pick).
- Numerator 1 × 6 × 5 × 4 quietly forced Andrew into the first slot only (that's what your leading 1 does), then filled the other 3 slots.

That's the mismatch. Since your denominator treats the 4 positions as ordered, Andrew is allowed to land in any of the 4 slots, not just the first. So you've only counted one-quarter of his favorable arrangements.

The fix is exactly what GMATinsight posted in the thread: Andrew can occupy one of 4 places in 4 ways, so the numerator should be

4 × 6 × 5 × 4 = 480

and

480 / (8 × 7 × 6 × 5) = 480 / 1680 = 2/7. ✓

The 4 you were missing is Andrew's choice of position. (This is also why the combination method never trips you up: 6C3 / 8C4 ignores order on both sides, so there's nothing to balance.)

Quick parallel to lock it in: pick 2 people from {A, B, C} with A required.

- Ordered total: 3 × 2 = 6.
- If you fix A in slot 1: 1 × 2 = 2, giving 2/6 = 1/3 - wrong.
- A can sit in slot 1or slot 2, so it's 2 × 2 = 4, giving 4/6 = 2/3 - correct.

Same lesson every time: if the denominator counts order, the numerator must let the fixed person take every position.

Answer: D

eaat
What am I doing wrong here?

From a group of 8 volunteers, including Andrew and Karen, 4 people are to be selected at random to organize a charity event. What is the probability that Andrew will be among the 4 volunteers selected and Karen will not?

For P(Andrew not Karen) it's 1 * 6 * 5 * 4

For total P it's 8 * 7 * 6 * 5

1 * 6 * 5 * 4 / 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 = 4 / 56 = 1 / 14

I'm off by a factor of 4, is there something that I'm missing?
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Prob = favorable/total possible

favorable: andrew * anyone except karen = 1C1 * 6C3 = 20

total possible: 8C4 = 70

prob = 20/70 = 2/7
D
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