Hi eaat,Your counting is almost perfect. The factor of
4 you're missing comes from one small inconsistency between your numerator and your denominator.
Look at what each part is counting:
-
Denominator 8 × 7 × 6 × 5 is
ordered - it counts every arrangement of
4 people across
4 distinct slots (1st pick, 2nd pick, 3rd pick, 4th pick).
-
Numerator 1 × 6 × 5 × 4 quietly forced Andrew into the
first slot only (that's what your leading
1 does), then filled the other
3 slots.
That's the mismatch. Since your denominator treats the
4 positions as ordered, Andrew is allowed to land in
any of the 4 slots, not just the first. So you've only counted one-quarter of his favorable arrangements.
The fix is exactly what GMATinsight posted in the thread: Andrew can occupy
one of 4 places in 4 ways, so the numerator should be
4 × 6 × 5 × 4 = 480and
480 / (8 × 7 × 6 × 5) = 480 / 1680 = 2/7. ✓
The
4 you were missing
is Andrew's choice of position. (This is also why the combination method never trips you up:
6C3 / 8C4 ignores order on both sides, so there's nothing to balance.)
Quick parallel to lock it in: pick
2 people from {A, B, C} with A required.
- Ordered total:
3 × 2 = 6.
- If you fix A in slot
1:
1 × 2 = 2, giving
2/6 = 1/3 - wrong.
- A can sit in slot
1or slot
2, so it's
2 × 2 = 4, giving
4/6 = 2/3 - correct.
Same lesson every time: if the denominator counts order, the numerator must let the fixed person take
every position.
Answer: Deaat
What am I doing wrong here?
From a group of 8 volunteers, including Andrew and Karen, 4 people are to be selected at random to organize a charity event. What is the probability that Andrew will be among the 4 volunteers selected and Karen will not?
For P(Andrew not Karen) it's 1 * 6 * 5 * 4
For total P it's 8 * 7 * 6 * 5
1 * 6 * 5 * 4 / 8 * 7 * 6 * 5 = 4 / 56 = 1 / 14
I'm off by a factor of 4, is there something that I'm missing?