GMAT AWA

Please rate my argument.

The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm:
“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counter examples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.

The argument conclusion is based on an incomplete study of the market trends. It claims that as the coffee market continues to grow in the same pattern for the last 40 years, there will be no changes in the market in the future. Claim on the basis of the age factor, that average coffee drinkers's consumption of coffee increases with age, from 10 through age 60, which is the opposite in the case of average cola drinkers, is purely vulnerable. Other factors for instance, market trends on the basis of taste or food and health factors have not been considered while concluding to transfer investments from Coca Loca to Early Bird Coffee.

Firstly, in recent scenarios, the choice of beverage depends on various other factors such as the choice of food, bought by the consumers. It may be the case that coca cola consumption will rise with the increase of consumption of junk food, which is nowadays highly desirable among the youth as well as elderly people. Therefore, the argument conclusion being based on only one factor makes it unsound.

Secondly, one of the most important factors which is considered for the consumption of the beverages is the drinker's health. It is scientifically proven that caffeine is present in coffee in high content and is not advisable to be consumed in higher amounts. This being the case, the sale of coffee is likely to fall sharply in coming years as people, especially elderly people, start to become aware of coffee influence on their health either through their doctors or the media.

Concluding citing all the possible rationale, it could be the case that cola sales remain stable, but, it can not be concluded that coffee consumption, despite having fatal effects on health, will continue to rise and will yield higher profits. Only one factore is considered.

In summary, the argument is based on superfluous facts. Due to the lack of evidence presented, the argument becomes vulnerable and illogical. However, if more substantive premises would have been provided by the argument, it would have been considerably strengthened.