Historian: In the Drindian Empire, censuses were conducted annually to

Question

Historian: In the Drindian Empire, censuses were conducted annually to determine the population of each village. Village census records for the last half of the 1600s are remarkably complete. This very completeness makes one point stand out: In five different years, villages overwhelmingly reported significant population declines. Tellingly, each of those five years immediately followed an increase in a certain Drindian tax. This tax, which was assessed on villages, was computed by the central government using the annual census figures. Obviously, whenever the tax went up, villages had an especially powerful economic incentive to minimize the number of people they recorded, and concealing the size of a village’s population from government census takers would have been easy. Therefore, the reported declines probably did not happen.

In the historian’s argument, the two portions in  boldface  play which of the following roles?

A. The first provides evidence to support the main conclusion of the historian’s argument; the second presents that conclusion.

B. The first is a claim which the historian seeks to evaluate; the second presents evidence in order to call that claim into question.

C. The first is a consideration that is advanced to counter evidence that weighs against the historian’s conclusion; the second provides evidence to support that conclusion.

D. The first provides a context for certain evidence that supports the position that the historian seeks to establish; the second provides evidence to support the main conclusion of the argument.

E. The first provides a context for certain evidence that supports the position that the historian seeks to establish; the second is the main conclusion of the argument.

Bunuel · Answer

Similar questions to practice: https://gmatclub.com/forum/historian-in ... 98114.html https://gmatclub.com/forum/historian-in ... 57912.html

guddo · Answer

Historian: In the Drindian Empire, censuses were conducted annually to determine the population of each village. Village census records for the last half of the 1600s are remarkably complete. This very completeness makes one point stand out: In five different years, villages overwhelmingly reported significant population declines. Tellingly, each of those five years immediately followed an increase in a certain Drindian tax. This tax, which was assessed on villages, was computed by the central government using the annual census figures. Obviously, whenever the tax went up, villages had an especially powerful economic incentive to minimize the number of people they recorded, and concealing the size of a village’s population from government census takers would have been easy. Therefore, the reported declines probably did not happen.
 
 In the historian’s argument, the two portions in boldface play which of the following roles?

The historian’s main conclusion is that the reported population declines probably did not really happen. The first boldface explains why the pattern in the records is noticeable and usable: the records are very complete. The second boldface gives the key reason villages had an incentive to underreport their populations.  So the first gives context for the evidence, and the second directly supports the conclusion .

A. The first provides evidence to support the main conclusion of the historian’s argument; the second presents that conclusion.

This is incorrect. The second boldface is not the conclusion. The conclusion is that the reported declines probably did not happen.

B. The first is a claim which the historian seeks to evaluate; the second presents evidence in order to call that claim into question.

This is incorrect. The historian does not evaluate or question the completeness of the records.

C. The first is a consideration that is advanced to counter evidence that weighs against the historian’s conclusion; the second provides evidence to support that conclusion.

This is partly wrong. The second supports the conclusion, but the first is not used to counter evidence against the historian’s conclusion. It mainly sets up the reliability and completeness of the record pattern.

D. The first provides a context for certain evidence that supports the position that the historian seeks to establish; the second provides evidence to support the main conclusion of the argument.

This is correct. The first explains why the reported pattern can be seen clearly in the records. The second helps explain why the reported declines were likely false: villages had a  financial incentive  to underreport population.

E. The first provides a context for certain evidence that supports the position that the historian seeks to establish; the second is the main conclusion of the argument.

This is incorrect. The first part is right, but the second boldface is not the main conclusion.

Answer: (D)

durant25 · Answer

Thank you but can you explain B and C further?

guddo · Answer

For B, the problem is that the historian is not trying to evaluate or question the completeness of the records. The historian accepts that the records are complete. What is being questioned is not the records’ completeness, but the reported population declines.

Also, the second boldface does not call the first boldface into question. It explains why villages had a reason to underreport.

For C, the first boldface is not used to counter evidence against the conclusion. It simply sets up the context: because the records are complete, the pattern of reported declines stands out clearly.  The second boldface supports the conclusion , but the first role in C is  not accurate .

LL132 · Answer

Main conclusion is at the very end: "Therefore, the reported declines probably did not happen." The author wants to prove the population drops were fake.

BF1:  "Village census records for the last half of the 1600s are remarkably complete." This is just a fact that sets up the background  context . Because the records are so complete, the historian is able to spot the weird trend of population drops.
 BF2:  "This tax... was computed by the central government using the annual census figures." This is the  evidence  that explains the motive. If taxes are based on your census head-count, you have a massive financial reason to lie and hide people when taxes go up. This directly supports the main conclusion that the declines were fake.
Scanning the options based on BF2 being evidence: A, B, and E are out because they say BF2 is either the conclusion or an opposing view.
Down to C and D. C says BF1 is used to "counter evidence." It doesn't counter anything. D correctly states BF1 provides "context" for the evidence.

Therefore option D

KarishmaB · Answer

Responding to a pm: The main conclusion here comes at the end - therefore, the reported population declines probably did not happen.
This is what the author wanted to prove in the argument. That is why he wrote the whole argument. 
He first gives context on census and how there were significant declines. 
Then he gives data - that these declines followed tax increase and that tax was calculated based on population. 
He then claims that that is why  villages had an economic incentive to minimize the number of people they recorded, and concealing the size of a village’s population would have been easy. 
Finally he arrives at the conclusion that the population decline probably did not happen.

Context:

In the Drindian Empire, censuses were conducted annually to determine the population of each village. 
 Village census records for the last half of the 1600s are remarkably complete . 
This very completeness makes one point stand out: In five different years, villages overwhelmingly reported significant population declines.

Premises:

Tellingly, each of those five years immediately followed an increase in a certain Drindian tax. 
 This tax, which was assessed on villages, was computed by the central government using the annual census figures.

Intermediate Conclusion:  
Obviously, whenever the tax went up, villages had an especially powerful economic incentive to minimize the number of people they recorded, and concealing the size of a village’s population from government census takers would have been easy.

Conclusion:

The reported declines probably did not happen.

A. The first provides evidence to support the main conclusion of the historian’s argument; the second presents that conclusion.
  
The second BF is certainly not the main conclusion. Eliminate.

B. The first is a claim which the historian seeks to evaluate; the second presents evidence in order to call that claim into question.
  
The second BF is certainly not the claim he seeks to evaluate (i.e. the conclusion). Eliminate.
  
C. The first is a consideration that is advanced to counter evidence that weighs against the historian’s conclusion; the second provides evidence to support that conclusion  .

There is no evidence that weighs against the historian’s conclusion. So first BF is not a consideration that is advanced to counter it. It is actually simply the background data (context) of the argument.

D. The first provides a context for certain evidence that supports the position that the historian seeks to establish; the second provides evidence to support the main conclusion of the argument.

First is context for evidence (premises given above) that support the conclusion. The second is evidence to support the main conclusion i.e. the second BF is a premise. Both BFs are identified correctly. Hence this is the answer.

E. The first provides a context for certain evidence that supports the position that the historian seeks to establish; the second is the main conclusion of the argument.

Second BF is not the main conclusion. Eliminate.

Answer (D)

horrorslive · Answer

Historian: In the Drindian Empire, censuses were conducted annually to determine the population of each village. Village census records for the last half of the 1600s are remarkably complete. This very completeness makes one point stand out: In five different years, villages overwhelmingly reported significant population declines. Tellingly, each of those five years immediately followed an increase in a certain Drindian tax. This tax, which was assessed on villages, was computed by the central government using the annual census figures. Obviously, whenever the tax went up, villages had an especially powerful economic incentive to minimize the number of people they recorded, and concealing the size of a village’s population from government census takers would have been easy. Therefore, the reported declines probably did not happen.

Conclusion: the reported declines probably did not happen.
In the historian’s argument, the two portions in boldface play which of the following roles?

A. The first provides evidence to support the main conclusion of the historian’s argument; the second presents that conclusion.
The first doesn't support the main conclusion; the second is not the main conclusion

B. The first is a claim which the historian seeks to evaluate; the second presents evidence in order to call that claim into question.
The first part is correct; Second BF doesn't question the first one.

C. The first is a consideration that is advanced to counter evidence that weighs against the historian’s conclusion; the second provides evidence to support that conclusion.
The first is more of a context or a claim, its not countering any evidence

D. The first provides a context for certain evidence that supports the position that the historian seeks to establish; the second provides evidence to support the main conclusion of the argument.
First part is correct, but i'm still not sure how the second supports that declines did not happen.
The statement after the second bf does support the conclusion though

E. The first provides a context for certain evidence that supports the position that the historian seeks to establish; the second is the main conclusion of the argument.
Second is not the main conclusion of the argument

By POE; D

Historian: In the Drindian Empire, censuses were conducted annually to

Prep Toolkit

Top 5 GMAT Debrief Videos

615 to 715 in 15 Days (Ria's Strategies)

More than Quant/Verbal Abilities: Speed vs. Accuracy

745 with Only Self-Prep and GMAT Club

From 555 to 765: 210-point Improvement

Perfect 805 Score Debrief by Julia

My Rewards

GMAT Critical Reasoning (CR) Questions

Historian: In the Drindian Empire, censuses were conducted annually to

Prep Toolkit

615 to 715 in 15 Days (Ria's Strategies)

More than Quant/Verbal Abilities: Speed vs. Accuracy

745 with Only Self-Prep and GMAT Club

From 555 to 765: 210-point Improvement

Perfect 805 Score Debrief by Julia

My Rewards