Official Explanation
Analyze the information
Take some brief notes to summarize the information on each tab:
Few Rs vote. May be due to many parties and/or weekday elections. Also, polls overstate # of voters.
1. For each of the following statements, select Yes if the information given supports the inference. Otherwise, select No.
Approach strategically:
Rubinia has fewer than 6 million eligible voters.
You're told that voter turnout ranges from 30% to 35% of eligible voters (Rubinia tab). If the 2,034,000 total votes (Election Results tab) account for one-third (33.3%) of the eligible voting population, that would mean there were slightly more than 6 million eligible voters. On the other hand, it is also possible that the 2,034,000 total voters represent up to 35% of the population of eligible voters, in which case this population would be slightly under 6 million. Since you cannot infer definitively that the number of eligible voters is less than 6 million, the correct answer is No.
Assuming the survey group was representative of the national population, at least 200 respondents claimed they would vote but did not.
Of survey respondents, 42% said they would not vote, and therefore 58% indicated that they would. However, you are told that voter turnout was no higher than 35%. That means that at least 23% of those who responded to the survey claimed they would vote when in fact they did not. Since there were 1,300 respondents, 23% of that number would exceed 200, and the answer is Yes.
Rubinia would increase voting participation to the level of nearby nations if it held elections on Saturdays.
The day of the week is only one of the factors cited as influencing voter turnout levels. There is no evidence that this change alone would be enough to negate the difference in voting participation levels, so the correct answer is No.
2. For each of the following statements, select Yes if the political party received a proportion of the vote that was greater than the proportion that the poll suggested it would receive. Otherwise, select No.
Agricultural Party
Of survey respondents, 4% said they would vote for the Agricultural Party out of the 49% who specified a party. (You can ignore the 9% undecided, as the information you have makes these voters no more or less likely to vote for one group over another, while the 49% of “committed voters” gives you the same group of parties as are in the final tally.) That’s about 8% of projected voters. On election day, the Agricultural Party received 320 thousand votes out of just over 2,000 thousand votes. That’s about 16%, much higher than the projected 8%, and the answer is Yes.
Economic Equality Party
Of survey respondents, 4% said they would vote for the Economic Equality Party out of 49% who said they would vote for a specific party. That’s about 8% of projected voters. On election day, the Economic Equality Party received over 300 thousand votes out of about 2,000 thousand. That’s roughly 15%, much higher than the projected 8%, and the answer is again Yes.
Rubinian Party
Of survey respondents, 6% said they would vote for the Rubinian Party out of 49% who said they would vote for a specific party. That’s about 12% of projected voters. On election day, the Rubinian Party received 187 thousand votes out of just over 2,000 thousand votes. That’s about 9%, less than the projected 12%, and the answer is No. The number of votes received would have to be over 240 thousand to even reach 12%.
3. Which of the following statements most helps to explain the results of the election, given the results of the phone survey?
Approach strategically
The Liberal Party was expected to win based on the poll, but it did not. Lack of ideological disputes is cited as a potential reason for lack of voter interest (Rubinia tab), so if the Liberal Party is particularly neutral in its views, that could be why a disproportionate number of voters who considered voting for that party decided not to vote or decided to vote for other parties with similar platforms. (A) is correct.
(B) is a 180. The statement explains why Populist Party supporters might not actually vote, but the Populist Party did better than expected in the election.
The other three answer choices are outside the scope of the information provided.