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nusmavrik
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30 Jul 2010, 00:38
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I have seen many arguments where causality to be destroyed. I will like to share an odd one where its the opposite. Source : Kaplan
Aggressive fertility treatments are not responsible for the rise in the incidence of twin
births. Rather, this increase can be attributed to the fact that women are waiting
longer to become mothers. Statistically, women over 35 are more likely to conceive
twins, and these women now comprise a greater percentage of women giving birth
than ever before. The argument above is flawed in that it ignores the possibility that
A. many women over 35 who give birth to twins are not first-time mothers
B. women over 35 are not the only women who give birth to twins
C. the correlation between fertility treatments and the increased incidence of
multiple births may be a coincidence
D. on average, women over 35 are no more likely to conceive identical twins
than other women are
E. women over 35 are more likely to resort to the sorts of fertility treatments
that tend to yield twin births
OA after the dicussion :wink:
Aggressive fertility treatments are not responsible for the rise in the incidence of twin
births. Rather, this increase can be attributed to the fact that women are waiting
longer to become mothers. Statistically, women over 35 are more likely to conceive
twins, and these women now comprise a greater percentage of women giving birth
than ever before. The argument above is flawed in that it ignores the possibility that
A. many women over 35 who give birth to twins are not first-time mothers
B. women over 35 are not the only women who give birth to twins
C. the correlation between fertility treatments and the increased incidence of
multiple births may be a coincidence
D. on average, women over 35 are no more likely to conceive identical twins
than other women are
E. women over 35 are more likely to resort to the sorts of fertility treatments
that tend to yield twin births
OA after the dicussion :wink:
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30 Jul 2010, 02:32
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The author concludes that aggressive fertility treatments are not responsible for rise in the incidence of twin births. Rather it is attributed to the fact that women are waiting longer to become mothers.
This is a simple causal flaw argument. There is a correlation between the rise in the incedence of twin births and women are waiting longer to become mothers. This correlation is CAUSAL LINK. However, the fact that two things are related does not prove that one caused the other. Here aggressive fertility is an UNDERRATED CAUSE.
There4 now we understand what the flaw is and where the gap exists in the argument.
Looking at all the possibilities we can rule out the following-
A-->may be true, but wont make any impact on the argument. Cant fill the gap.
B-->a general statement. cant fill the gap.
C-->OOS. Argument is not concerned about multiple births.
D-->contradicting statement. Argument has explicitly stated that women over 35 are more likely to conceive twins
E logically fills the gap because the argument ignores the fact that woman who are above 35 and when they resort to the sorts of fertility treatment could be the reason for rise in the incidence of twin births.
This is a simple causal flaw argument. There is a correlation between the rise in the incedence of twin births and women are waiting longer to become mothers. This correlation is CAUSAL LINK. However, the fact that two things are related does not prove that one caused the other. Here aggressive fertility is an UNDERRATED CAUSE.
There4 now we understand what the flaw is and where the gap exists in the argument.
Looking at all the possibilities we can rule out the following-
A-->may be true, but wont make any impact on the argument. Cant fill the gap.
B-->a general statement. cant fill the gap.
C-->OOS. Argument is not concerned about multiple births.
D-->contradicting statement. Argument has explicitly stated that women over 35 are more likely to conceive twins
E logically fills the gap because the argument ignores the fact that woman who are above 35 and when they resort to the sorts of fertility treatment could be the reason for rise in the incidence of twin births.
Gryphon
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IMO E.
Premise: Women over 35 are predisposed to having twins.
Premise: Women over 35 constitute an increasing percentage of women giving birth.
Conclusion: Fertility treatments aren't responsible for the increase in the number of twins.
If you insert E as a new premise, it successfully invalidates the conlcusion and weakens the overall argument.
Premise: Women over 35 are predisposed to having twins.
Premise: Women over 35 constitute an increasing percentage of women giving birth.
Conclusion: Fertility treatments aren't responsible for the increase in the number of twins.
If you insert E as a new premise, it successfully invalidates the conlcusion and weakens the overall argument.
But didn't close the deal
