Because of a recent drought in Florida during the orange-growing seaso

Question

Because of a recent drought in Florida during the orange-growing season, the price of oranges this season will be three times the usual price. This will drive up the cost of producing orange juice and thus push up the price of orange juice for the consumer.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument above?

(A) The recent drought was not as severe as scientists predicted.

(B) States other than Florida also supply oranges to orange juice manufacturers.

(C) Other ingredients are used in the production of orange juice.

(D) Last year the price of oranges was actually lower than the average price over the past ten years.

(E) The price of oranges will eventually be $0.48 per crate.

Sajjad1994 · Accepted Answer

Official Explanation

Conclusion:   This will drive up the cost of producing orange juice and thus push up the price of orange juice for the consumer.

Premise:   Because of a recent drought in Florida during the orange-growing season, the price of Florida oranges this season will be three times the usual price.

Assumptions:   There’s no other way to interpret the facts. Because a recent drought is making Florida oranges cost three times the usual price this season, the cost of producing orange juice will go up and thus push up the price of orange juice for the consumer. There is no other explanation.

The question stem asks which answer choice most  seriously weakens the argument , so this is a weaken question. The argument uses an interpretation of evidence reasoning pattern, which can be identified by the presentation of specific facts as evidence. In this case, that the price of Florida oranges this season will be three times the usual because of a recent drought, which in turn will drive up the cost of producing orange juice and push up the price for the consumer.

The standard assumption of an interpretation of evidence reasoning pattern is that there is no other way to interpret the facts. Because this is a weaken question, the correct answer will demonstrate that the facts do not necessarily lead to the conclusion. In other words, that just because the price of Florida oranges this season will be three times the usual price because of a recent drought, that will not necessarily drive up the cost of producing orange juice and push up the price for the consumer. Evaluate the answer choices, looking for one that matches this idea.

Choice A:  No. This answer choice is out of scope. Even if The recent drought was not as severe as predicted, it could still have enough impact to drive up the cost of producing orange juice and push up the price for the consumer.

Choice B:  Correct. This choice weakens the argument. If Only a small percentage of the oranges used to make orange juice are grown in Florida, then just because the price of Florida oranges will be three times the usual would not necessarily drive up the cost of producing orange juice and the price of orange juice for the consumer in general.

Choice C:  No. This answer choice is out of scope. Even if Other ingredients are used in the production of orange juice, the price of Florida oranges this season (which are) three times the usual price could still have enough impact to drive up the cost of producing orange juice and push up the price for the consumer.

Choice D:  No. This answer choice is out of scope. Even if Last year the price of oranges was lower than the average over the past ten years, the price of Florida oranges this season (which are) three times the usual price could still have enough impact to drive up the cost of producing orange juice and push up the price for the consumer.

Choice E:  No. This answer choice is out of scope. An eventual price of oranges has no impact on the price of Florida oranges this season.

The correct answer is choice B.

Hope it helps

donisback · Answer

Conclusion: The cost of producing orange juice will be higher which in turn will push up the cost of orange juice

To weaken this conclusion, we have to negatively impact the conclusion.

Because of a recent drought in Florida during the orange-growing season, the
price of oranges this season will be three times the usual price. This will drive up
the cost of producing orange juice and thus push up the price of orange juice for
the consumer.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument above?
(A)  The recent drought was not as severe as scientists predicted. 
This is not related to the cost of producing orange juice.
(B)  States other than Florida also supply oranges to orange juice manufacturers. 
This seems to be the most probable answer. Assuming that states other than Florida didn't experience drought and the cost of oranges is the same elsewhere, the cost of producing orange juice would not be much impacted.

(C)  Other ingredients are used in the production of orange juice. 
The major ingredient of orange juice is orange. So, the cost of other ingredients is irrelevant.
(D)  Last year the price of oranges was actually lower than the average price over
the past ten years. : Though the cost of oranges was actually lower,the price will be thrice the price now. The new price cannot be assumed to be lower/higher from this choice. 
(E)  The price of oranges will eventually be $0.48 per crate.  : We cannot assume the cost of orange juice from this.

rochak · Answer

garbage question none of the options are conclusive.
if taken literally, c is the least bad ans.
it says 'Other ingredients are used in the production of orange juice'
and not 'Other ingredients are ALSO used in the production of orange juice'

RujutaA · Answer

I marked B as wrong for following reason:
States other than Florida also supply oranges to orange juice manufacturers, But the % contribution of other states v/s that by Florida state is not given.
For eg. if other states contribute 5% & Florida contributes 95% of oranges, prices will go high.
and if other states contrubute 90% & Florida contributes 10%, then prices might not go high or may even then rise.

Can't really figure out error in my reasoning!

Gaudapada · Answer

Bad question. We have to assume the premise that price of orange increased 3x regardless of whether oranges came from Florida or someplace else.

Posted from my mobile device

LearningTheRopes · Answer

I chose B but still have some issues with the answer:

"Because of a recent drought in Florida during the orange-growing season,  the price of oranges this season will be three times the usual price . This will drive up the cost of producing orange juice and thus push up the price of orange juice for the consumer."

Regardless of whether there are other suppliers of oranges, the prompt states that the price (general) of oranges will be three times its usual amount.  The prompt does not distinguish between the price of Florida oranges and oranges in general in this statement . Therefore, even if there are other suppliers of oranges, the fact still holds that the price of oranges will be 3 times greater. And so, regardless of whether you buy from different states, according to the prompt, you won't be negating the increase in the price of an OJ input.

Harsh_Belani · Answer

The question is wrong.
In option C -> It should be "Other ingredients are  also  used...."
Option B is inconclusive. What if other states supplied minority of oranges and the major supply came from Florida.
As per the current statements I would say C weakens the most, because it directly says oranges are not even used in orange juice, other ingredients are used.
 Sajjad1994   mojorising800   Bunuel

TheVDR · Answer

Option C is ambiguous. Either it should be mentioned that "only" other ingredients are used OR other ingredients are "also" used.

Also, option B is a very weak weakener. We are said that non-Florida oranges are also used but we have no clue about the proportion of Florida : Non Florida oranges. If a lot of Florida oranges are used, the prices will still shoot up despite some oranges being outsourced. On the contrary, if a large % of Non Florida oranges are used, prices will not shoot up drastically but they will increase nevertheless.

Quite an ambiguous question.

Posted from my mobile device

Isha2701 · Answer

Bunuel  pls help: In optn (b) we don't know if the other states make up only a very small %age of the oranges' share in Florida. How can we say that it is B for sure? This is a maybe kind of thing

guddo · Answer

Because of a recent drought in Florida during the orange-growing season, the price of oranges this season will be three times the usual price. This will drive up the cost of producing orange juice and thus push up the price of orange juice for the consumer.
 
 Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument above?

The argument assumes that a drought in Florida will make oranges much more expensive and that this will therefore raise the consumer price of orange juice. The best weakener is the one that shows Florida is not the only relevant source of oranges, so a Florida drought may not strongly affect orange juice prices overall.

(A) The recent drought was not as severe as scientists predicted.

This weakens the argument somewhat, but it does not directly show that orange prices or juice prices will not rise sharply.

(B) States other than Florida also supply oranges to orange juice manufacturers.

This is the best answer. If orange juice manufacturers can also get oranges from other states, then a drought in Florida may have much less effect on the overall cost of oranges used in juice production. That directly weakens the conclusion.

(C) Other ingredients are used in the production of orange juice.

This is too weak. Even if other ingredients are used, oranges could still be the main cost.

(D) Last year the price of oranges was actually lower than the average price over the past ten years.

This is irrelevant. The argument is about this season’s drought and this season’s prices.

(E) The price of oranges will eventually be $0.48 per crate.

This gives a number with no useful comparison, so it does not help evaluate the argument.

Answer: (B)

Because of a recent drought in Florida during the orange-growing seaso

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Because of a recent drought in Florida during the orange-growing seaso

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