There's something else I was thinking about that might be interesting for people considering banking. There's a real question right now whether investment banks will continue to be the money making machines they have been in recent years. A lot of their profits (and hence compensation) has been tied to providing funding for the transactions they have advised on, essentially helping fuel the boom in private equity LBOs (among other things).
These days, when you read analyst reports about any of the big banks, they almost always make some type of comment about whether the bank's "franchise is intact going forward" or whether the "bank is killing a key part of their profitability". Essentially, they are trying to answer the question of whether banks will have the ability to make money in the future after they get through their current problems. The landscape might get tougher, as regulators are forcing banks to reduce their leverage, their holdings in illiquid assets and other ways in which they do business.
Private equity has not been immune to the changes either (to say nothing of the fact that no deals have been getting done for almost a year now), and the IPOs of Blackstone, Fortress and Apollo (proposed with a pre-offering so far) have been hammered, demonstrating how tough that landscape has been.
I think there's a real question if banks and private equity firms will be returning to the profitability of the past few years (a question I've been asking myself). This will in large part determine whether universal banks, traditional investment banks or advisory firms will do the best going forward. Certainly, finance will evolve and the people and firms that adapt fastest and best will set the new standards (in profits and compensation). I'm certainly wary about jumping on the PE bandwagon right now; seems like they could go the way of the junk-bond trader, at least in the short term.
I guess the point is that looking at the historical figures is enlightening only to a degree. I have no doubt that some groups will capture compensation levels higher than those shown in the graphs and charts above - Wall Street with find a way. Will the big banks keep up? Hard to say right now, as their business models are under fire, and their earnings (and in turn compensation) will be under pressure for years to come following the write-downs they have been forced to take and the business types that are no longer open.