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If a mother’s first child is born before its due date, it is likely th

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Manager
Joined: 23 Apr 2019
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01 Aug 2019, 17:02
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If a mother’s first child is born before its due date, it is likely that her second child will be also. Jackie’s second child was not born before its due date, so it is likely that Jackie’s first child was not born before its due date either.

The questionable reasoning in the argument above is most similar in its reasoning to which one of the following?

(A) Artisans who finish their projects before the craft fair will probably go to the craft fair. Ben will not finish his project before the fair. So he probably will not go to the craft fair.

(B) All responsible pet owners are likely to be good with children. So anyone who is good with children is probably a responsible pet owner.

(C) If a movie is a box-office hit, it is likely that its sequel will be also. Hawkman II, the sequel to Hawkman I, was not a box-office hit, so Hawkman I was probably not a box-office hit.

(D) If a business is likely to fail, people will not invest in it. Pallid Starr is likely to fail, therefore no one is likely to invest in it.

(E) Tai will go sailing only if the weather is nice. The weather will be nice, thus Tai will probably go sailing.
Intern
Joined: 04 Jun 2019
Posts: 4
Re: If a mother’s first child is born before its due date, it is likely th  [#permalink]

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02 Aug 2019, 00:48
The reasoning here is ,
Given: If X is true then Y is likely to be true
Hence if Y is true, X is likely to be true.

The same reasoning is visible in answer chioce B. Hence B is the answer
Director
Joined: 19 Oct 2018
Posts: 774
Location: India
Re: If a mother’s first child is born before its due date, it is likely th  [#permalink]

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02 Aug 2019, 11:48
Argument reasoning-:
If X, then Y.
If ~Y, then ~X.

Option C- If a movie is a box-office hit(X), then it is likely that its sequel will be also.(Y)
Hawkman II, the sequel to Hawkman I, was not a box-office hit(~Y), so Hawkman I was probably not a box-office hit.(~X)
That reasoning is similar to our argument.

Hovkial wrote:
If a mother’s first child is born before its due date, it is likely that her second child will be also. Jackie’s second child was not born before its due date, so it is likely that Jackie’s first child was not born before its due date either.

The questionable reasoning in the argument above is most similar in its reasoning to which one of the following?

(A) Artisans who finish their projects before the craft fair will probably go to the craft fair. Ben will not finish his project before the fair. So he probably will not go to the craft fair.

(B) All responsible pet owners are likely to be good with children. So anyone who is good with children is probably a responsible pet owner.

(C) If a movie is a box-office hit, it is likely that its sequel will be also. Hawkman II, the sequel to Hawkman I, was not a box-office hit, so Hawkman I was probably not a box-office hit.

(D) If a business is likely to fail, people will not invest in it. Pallid Starr is likely to fail, therefore no one is likely to invest in it.

(E) Tai will go sailing only if the weather is nice. The weather will be nice, thus Tai will probably go sailing.
Manager
Joined: 20 Jul 2016
Posts: 84
Re: If a mother’s first child is born before its due date, it is likely th  [#permalink]

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02 Aug 2019, 13:06
1
The reasoning goes: if this, then probably that. Not that, so probably not this.

C fits in. B misses the "not".
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Intern
Joined: 21 Jun 2019
Posts: 8
Location: United States (NY)
GMAT 1: 650 Q50 V27
Re: If a mother’s first child is born before its due date, it is likely th  [#permalink]

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02 Aug 2019, 13:36
Logic here is :
If X (first child born before due date) then Y (second also born before due date)
If not Y, then not X

Same logic in C
If X (movie is a box-office hit), then (sequel will be also a hit)
If not Y ( Hawkman II, the sequel to Hawkman I, was not a box-office hit,) then not X (so Hawkman I was probably not a box-office hit)
Re: If a mother’s first child is born before its due date, it is likely th   [#permalink] 02 Aug 2019, 13:36
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