there is a lesson in ggarr's mistake.
virtually all books/gmat courses teach the power of "picking number" strategies...
however, at least from what i understand, very rarely teach when NOT to you it. it can be an hazardous methodology sometimes....
the more obvious cases are when 1,2,3 and even 4 examples that "goes right" doesn't tell us that something will always (for any number)"go right".
this usually happens in DS questions, but not always...
the other, less obvious case when you SHOULD avoid "picking numbers", is where this method creates lots of "work", that is, computations and arihmetics. especially if these involve fractions, negative numbers and exponents.
most of us will eventually will do some mistakes in calculations.
true.... we can be careful and avoid those mistake (a wise move)... but, we can altogether avoid the computation itself.
like in this question. in order to find if a multiplication is positive or negative we should just ask if each component is positive or negative... not try numbers to see whats happenning there....
i claimed before and i still claim, succeeding gmat quant is not about knowing enough math techniques for solving problems, but rathr - using as few math skills as possible to solve them.
just my two pence.