Bunuel
Last year, AutoSafe sold a large number of new automobile insurance policies and luxury cars were stolen at a particularly high rate, resulting in a record number of theft-related insurance claims submitted to AutoSafe. This year, Autosafe will no longer sell insurance policies to owners of luxury cars. Therefore, unless Autosafe sells a record number of policies to owners of non-luxury cars, fewer theft-related claims will be submitted this year.
Which of the following is an assumption on which the argument relies?
(A) Each year, luxury cars are stolen at a higher rate than are non-luxury cars.
(B) Customers who purchased policies last year are no more likely to have their cars stolen this year than they were last year.
(C) This year, the theft rate of non-luxury cars will not be substantially higher than the theft rate of non-luxury cars last year.
(D) This year, the number of stolen cars recovered by AutoSafe policyholders will be greater than the number of stolen cars recovered by policyholders last year.
(E) The number of automobile thefts that affected AutoSafe policyholders last year was not nearly as high as the number of thefts that a§ected non-policyholders.
OFFICIAL EXPLANATION
C
In an assumption question, there is usually some shift from the evidence to the conclusion. In the background information, we know that the large number of policies and large number of those associated with luxury cars, coupled with the luxury car theft rate, means that if no more policies are sold to owners of luxury cars, fewer theft claims will be submitted. This is a fairly typical type of shift: if the argument is true, the situation last year must stay the same. There's no guarantee, however, that that is the case.
Choice (A) reflects something that stays the same from year to year, but it doesn't apply directly to the argument. It doesn't matter which type of car is stolen more frequently, just that the relative number of luxury and non-luxury thefts stay the same. (B), again, is something that stays the same, but it doesn't take into account any possible new policies sold this year.
Choice (C) is better. The high number of claims last year was due to the rate of luxury car theft; without that number, the record would not have been set. If the number of non-luxury thefts does not go up by much, and no more policies are sold to owners of luxury cars, fewer claims will be submitted this year. (D) is irrelevant: we're concerned with theft claims, not recovery. (E) is another o§-topic comparison, as we're only concerned with the number of thefts of cars belonging to policyholders. (C) is the best choice.