1. PRETHINK (MOST IMPORTANT)
Argument Core
* Helium is worth 25% more than the debt incurred to acquire/store it.
* Sell helium → pay off helium-related debt → reduce overall government debt.
Gap
The lawmaker assumes the government can actually realize that 25% surplus when it sells.
High-Value Prethink
Before looking at choices, a 725+ scorer would think:
1. Selling such a large helium stockpile will not significantly reduce helium prices.
2. The sale proceeds will be at least greater than the debt tied to the helium.
3. Transaction/closure costs will not wipe out the surplus.
4. The government is legally and practically able to sell the helium.
Notice something important:
The conclusion depends on the government actually receiving more money than the helium debt.
So the biggest danger is:
"What if selling all that helium causes the market price to crash?"
That is the most obvious attack.
---
2. OPTION ANALYSIS
A. The government has no current need for helium.
Why wrong
The argument is about debt reduction.
Even if the government needs helium, it could still sell it and reduce debt.
The conclusion is:
Selling helium would reduce debt.
Not:
Selling helium is a wise policy.
Need and debt reduction are different issues.
Elimination clue
Introduces a policy consideration rather than a logical requirement for the financial calculation.
---
B. Twenty-five percent of the debt the government has accumulated in stockpiling helium is not an insignificant portion of the government’s total debt.
Why wrong
The conclusion says:
reduce its overall debt
Even a tiny reduction is still a reduction.
Suppose total government debt is $10 trillion and helium sale reduces debt by only $1 million.
The conclusion remains true.
The argument never claims the reduction is substantial.
Elimination clue
Confuses "reduce debt" with "reduce debt significantly."
Magnitude is irrelevant.
------------------------
C. It is not in the lawmaker’s interest to advocate raising taxes as a means of reducing government debt.
Why wrong
Purely about the lawmaker's motives.
Arguments depend on evidence and logic, not speaker incentives.
Even if the lawmaker personally benefits from avoiding tax increases, the helium sale could still reduce debt.
Classic motive fallacy trap.
Elimination clue
Whenever an assumption choice discusses the speaker's personal interests rather than the causal chain, eliminate aggressively.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
D. Attempts to sell the government’s helium will not depress the market price of helium by more than 25 percent.
Correct
Current market value of helium stockpile:
125% of helium-related debt.
The surplus is only 25%.
If flooding the market causes prices to fall by more than 25%, then:
* helium sale proceeds may become less than the debt
* government may not fully pay off the helium debt
* therefore may not reduce overall debt
Example:
Debt = $100
Current helium value = $125
Price falls 30%
Sale proceeds = $87.50
Now debt cannot even be fully repaid.
The conclusion collapses.
This directly protects the key gap:
the government can actually realize the claimed surplus when selling.
Negation Test
Attempts to sell the helium depress the market price by more than 25%.
Now the sale may not generate enough money to exceed the debt.
Conclusion no longer follows.
Argument fails.
---
E. The government will not incur any costs in closing its facilities for stockpiling helium.
Why wrong
This sounds tempting because it mentions costs.
But it is too strong and unnecessary.
The argument only needs the net proceeds to exceed the debt.
Some closure costs could exist.
Example:
Debt = $100
Helium value = $125
Closure costs = $5
Net proceeds = $120
Debt still reduced.
So zero costs are not required.
Elimination clue
Assumption questions often trap you with an extreme version of what is needed.
The argument needs:
costs won't exceed the surplus
Choice says:
costs are exactly zero
Too strong.
-----------
3. 725+ SCORER INTERNAL THOUGHT PROCESS (Under 15 Seconds)
"Helium is worth only 25% more than the debt. That's a thin margin. If the government dumps a huge helium stockpile onto the market, prices could fall and erase that surplus. I'm looking for an assumption that the sale won't destroy the market value."
---
4. TAKEAWAYS
* Pattern: Asset-sale argument → check whether the stated market value can actually be realized.
* Recognition Trigger: Whenever a conclusion depends on selling a large asset, ask: Will the sale itself change the price?
* Elimination Lesson: Motives of the speaker rarely matter in assumption questions.
* Elimination Lesson: "Significant reduction" is different from merely "some reduction."
* Elimination Lesson: Beware of answers requiring zero cost when the argument only requires costs to be small enough.