Quote:
The following appeared as part of an article in a health club trade publication:
“After experiencing a decline in usage by its members, Healthy Heart fitness center built an indoor pool. Since usage did not increase significantly, it appears that health club managers should adopt another approach—lowering membership fees rather than installing expensive new features.”
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
The argument states that Healthy Heart fitness center should lower membership fees to increase usage by its members, rather than installing expensive new features. This conclusion is based on the observation that usage did not significantly increase following the construction of an indoor pool. However, this observation is ambiguous, and does not adequately support the conclusion.
First, the argument provides no specific details about the usage before and after the construction of the pool; we only know that it did not increase significantly. This sort of language depends greatly on the discretion of the author, and could be misleading. Suppose, for instance, that prior to construction of the pool, usage was declining at a rate of 5% per month, and in the initial month after the pool opened, usage increased by 1% over the previous month. Taken in isolation, the 1% increase might be deemed "insignificant" by some, but in the larger context it certainly shows a break in the prior pattern, and thus could be deemed significant. In addition, the argument fails to disclose the amount of time elapsed since the pool was opened to members, and whether a concerted effort was made to inform members of its completion. If, for instance, the insignificant increase in usage was over a period of a few days after the pool opened, and no effort was made to inform members, it would be unreasonable to infer that expensive new features would not lead to an increase in usage.
Second, while the argument reccommends lowering membership fees to increase usage, it provides no evidence in support of this. At first glance, it seems unreasonable to assume that usage would increase if membership fees were lowered, since members would presumably pay those fees regardless of the usage (unless the "membership fees" mentioned are on a per-use basis). It is also possible that such an action could in fact decrease membership (and reduce the likelihood of increasing usage in the future), since many memberships are paid automatically and are "out of sight, out of mind." By decreasing membership fees, many who don't use the facilities might be reminded that they are still being charged, and cancel membership.
Finally, the argument offers no analysis of why usage at the fitness center declined prior to the construction of the pool. In order to effectively argue for particular remedy, one must be well informed of the possible reasons for the problem. In this case, perhaps membership declined due to the erosion in quality, due to age, of many of the fitness center's sports facilities. In that scenario, it would seem that by investing in an expensive new sports facility Healthy Heart might increase usage to prior levels.
In order to strengthen the argument that Healthy Heart should decrease membership fees rather than invest in expensive new features, additional information about the changes in membership before and after the construction of the pool would be neccessary, along with some reasoning regarding why the lowering of fees would increase usage. As it stands, the argument is insufficent.