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Learn what truly sets the UC Riverside MBA apart and how it helps in your professional growth
19 Sep 2015, 00:26
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ESSAY QUESTION:The following appeared in The Homebuilder magazine, a local publication with a focus on construction and sale of real-estate properties:
"According to the most recent survey of our readers, nearly 70% of the respondents indicated that they are planning to build or purchase a new home over the next 2 years. These results indicate that the growth in the construction industry is likely to accelerate in the near future. Therefore, this industry continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment."
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. Point out flaws in the argument's logic and analyze the argument's underlying assumptions. In addition, evaluate how supporting evidence is used and what evidence might counter the argument's conclusion. You may also discuss what additional evidence could be used to strengthen the argument or what changes would make the argument more logically sound.
RESPONSE:
The argument claims that the growth of construction industry is likely to accelerate in the near future and will therefore continue to offer lucrative opportunities for investment. The reason cited for this prediction is that in a survey conducted on the readers of The Homebuilder magazine, nearly 70% of the respondents indicated that they plan to build or buy a new home within the next 2 years. Stated in this way the argument manipulates facts and present a distorted view of the situation.
Firstly, the argument states that 70% of the respondents of the survey plan to construct or buy a new home in next 2 years but the argument does not state that how many people of these 70% are planning to construct a new home rather than purchasing a already constructed home. If the proportion of people purchasing an already constructed new home is quite higher than the people who plan on building a new home then the argument's conclusion of accelerated growth in construction industry becomes weak. The argument could have been clearer if it explicitly stated that what proportion of those 70% readers will actually construct a new home.
Secondly, the argument assumes that the readers of the magazine are sufficient to represent the overall thought process of the people. But the argument does not provide any information about the type of reader this magazine has. For example, if the reader base is mainly of the urban area, we cannot infer the same conclusion for the people of rural are as well. Moreover, the argument also fails to provide information about the popularity of the magazine, that is, the number of readers it has as compared to the entire population of that region. If the reader base is very small then it cannot accurately represent the people of that region.
Finally, the argument fails to mention how the survey was conducted. Did all the readers of the magazine took part in it?
What type of questions were asked from them? How many of the 70% indicated to actually construct a new home? Without some convincing answers to all these questions, one is left with the impression that the argument is more of a wishful thinking rather than a substantive evidence.
In conclusion, the argument is flawed and unconvincing for the above mentioned reasons. It could have been substantially strengthened if the author explicitly stated all the relevant facts. In order to assess the credibility of a certain argument,it is essential to have full knowledge of all the contributing factors. In this particular case, popularity of the magazine, type of reader base of the magazine , how the survey was conducted and proportion of those 70% people that want to construct a new home remains unknown. Without this information the argument remains unsubstantiated and open to debate.
"According to the most recent survey of our readers, nearly 70% of the respondents indicated that they are planning to build or purchase a new home over the next 2 years. These results indicate that the growth in the construction industry is likely to accelerate in the near future. Therefore, this industry continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investment."
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. Point out flaws in the argument's logic and analyze the argument's underlying assumptions. In addition, evaluate how supporting evidence is used and what evidence might counter the argument's conclusion. You may also discuss what additional evidence could be used to strengthen the argument or what changes would make the argument more logically sound.
RESPONSE:
The argument claims that the growth of construction industry is likely to accelerate in the near future and will therefore continue to offer lucrative opportunities for investment. The reason cited for this prediction is that in a survey conducted on the readers of The Homebuilder magazine, nearly 70% of the respondents indicated that they plan to build or buy a new home within the next 2 years. Stated in this way the argument manipulates facts and present a distorted view of the situation.
Firstly, the argument states that 70% of the respondents of the survey plan to construct or buy a new home in next 2 years but the argument does not state that how many people of these 70% are planning to construct a new home rather than purchasing a already constructed home. If the proportion of people purchasing an already constructed new home is quite higher than the people who plan on building a new home then the argument's conclusion of accelerated growth in construction industry becomes weak. The argument could have been clearer if it explicitly stated that what proportion of those 70% readers will actually construct a new home.
Secondly, the argument assumes that the readers of the magazine are sufficient to represent the overall thought process of the people. But the argument does not provide any information about the type of reader this magazine has. For example, if the reader base is mainly of the urban area, we cannot infer the same conclusion for the people of rural are as well. Moreover, the argument also fails to provide information about the popularity of the magazine, that is, the number of readers it has as compared to the entire population of that region. If the reader base is very small then it cannot accurately represent the people of that region.
Finally, the argument fails to mention how the survey was conducted. Did all the readers of the magazine took part in it?
What type of questions were asked from them? How many of the 70% indicated to actually construct a new home? Without some convincing answers to all these questions, one is left with the impression that the argument is more of a wishful thinking rather than a substantive evidence.
In conclusion, the argument is flawed and unconvincing for the above mentioned reasons. It could have been substantially strengthened if the author explicitly stated all the relevant facts. In order to assess the credibility of a certain argument,it is essential to have full knowledge of all the contributing factors. In this particular case, popularity of the magazine, type of reader base of the magazine , how the survey was conducted and proportion of those 70% people that want to construct a new home remains unknown. Without this information the argument remains unsubstantiated and open to debate.
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