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Re: Odysseus answered well when the priests showed him a picture of those [#permalink]
Bunuel wrote:
Odysseus answered well when the priests showed him a picture of those who had honored the gods and then escaped shipwreck, and asked him whether he did not now acknowledge the power of the gods—“Yes,” he asked, “but where are those pictured who were drowned after their prayers?” And such is the way of all superstitions; wherein humans, having a delight in such vanities, mark the events where they are fulfilled, but where they fail, though this happens much oftener, neglect and pass them by.

Which one of the following contains the error of reasoning described by the author in the passage?


(A) I have discovered that Friday the 13th really is a day of misfortune. Just this past Friday, the 13th, I locked myself out of the house.

(B) Although Napoleon and Alexander the Great were short, Abraham Lincoln and Charles de Gaulle were tall. So short people seek leadership in order to overcome feelings of inferiority.

(C) Every semester for the past 15 years, an average of 10 percent of Ms. Elliot’s history students have dropped her course before the exam. So, it seems likely that we can expect 10 percent to drop out this year.

(D) No reliable observer has ever actually seen a yeti. The strongest evidence seems to be some suspicious tracks. So I think this search for a yeti is probably a wild-goose chase.

(E) I cannot trust my lucky shirt any longer. I wore it to the game today and our team lost.



The question says Which one of the following contains the error of reasoning described by the author in the passage?
So the error that we need to define and find in the answer choices is the one described by the author, not the flaw of his own reasoning.
The error of reasoning the author describes is people's attitude and conclusions about some events. From people who prayed, a small portion survived the shipwreck, but the larger portion died. However, people still concentrate on the survival part of the story and draw conclusions about God's power, basing their argument solely on the favorable part of the evidence.

The answer choice that contains a reasoning error that is most similar to the one described above is E.
the author is making conclusion about his /her shirt considering only one event in the past (when his/her team lost) and ignores all other cases when they won (the shirt wouldn't be called lucky if there were no victories with it).
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Re: Odysseus answered well when the priests showed him a picture of those [#permalink]
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(A) I have discovered that Friday the 13th really is a day of misfortune. Just this past Friday, the 13th, I locked myself out of the house. -- Correct answer. Concluding that Friday the 13th is a day of misfortune based on a single unfavorable event when the favorable ones could have outnumbered the unfavorable ones. Similar to the reasoning presented in the passage.

(B) Although Napoleon and Alexander the Great were short, Abraham Lincoln and Charles de Gaulle were tall. So short people seek leadership in order to overcome feelings of inferiority. -- Completely irrelevant to the passage. The passage speaks of generalising a superstition by considering only its intended outcomes. This answer choice is nowhere related to it.

(C) Every semester for the past 15 years, an average of 10 percent of Ms. Elliot’s history students have dropped her course before the exam. So, it seems likely that we can expect 10 percent to drop out this year. -- Incorrect. It is only expecting 10% to drop out this year and not generalising based on a data point, which is the logic used in the passage (relatively fewer numbered data point used to make a generalising principle)

(D) No reliable observer has ever actually seen a yeti. The strongest evidence seems to be some suspicious tracks. So I think this search for a yeti is probably a wild-goose chase. -- Irrelevant. Not related to the reasoning in the passage.

(E) I cannot trust my lucky shirt any longer. I wore it to the game today and our team lost. -- Close choice. But the difference here is that the answer choice doesn't make a generalisation unlike the passage and answer choice A. Therefore, eliminated.
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Re: Odysseus answered well when the priests showed him a picture of those [#permalink]
Hello from the GMAT Club VerbalBot!

Thanks to another GMAT Club member, I have just discovered this valuable topic, yet it had no discussion for over a year. I am now bumping it up - doing my job. I think you may find it valuable (esp those replies with Kudos).

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Re: Odysseus answered well when the priests showed him a picture of those [#permalink]
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