Prompt
The following appeared in a memorandum from the business planning department of Avia Airlines:
“Of all the cities in their region, Beaumont and Fletcher are showing the fastest growth in the number of new businesses. Therefore, Avia should establish a commuter route between them as a means of countering recent losses on its main passenger routes. And to make the commuter route more profitable from the outset, Avia should offer a 1/3 discount on tickets purchased within two days of the flight. Unlike tickets bought earlier, discount tickets will be nonrefundable, and so gain from their sale will be greater.”
Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.
The argument claims that Avia Airlines should establish a commuter route between Beaumont and Fletcher, two cities with the fastest growth in number of new businesses. Stated in this way, the argument uses poor reasoning and fails to consider several key factors on the basis of which it could be evaluated. The. conclusion of the argument relies on assumptions for which there is no clear evidence. Hence, the argument is unconvincing and has several flaws.
First, the argument readily assumes that commuter route between two cities with the fastest business growth in the region will be profitable. This statement is a stretch. For instance, the argument does not mention what kind of businesses are fast growing in these two cities. Clearly, if it were local businesses which does not necessitate travel between these two cities, the airline route might not see expected profits. The argument could have been much clearer if it explicitly provided evidence that these fastly growing businesses involve travel between the two cities.
Second, the argument claims that tickets with 1/3 discounts, offered for purchase within two days of flight, will be nonrefundable. Hence, the gain from their sale will be greater. This is again a very weak statement as the argument does not demonstrate any correlation between nonrefundable discounted tickets and increased profits from those tickets. To illustrate, the argument assumes that the airline will make a profit from cancelled tickets. Since, this may not always be the case, the argument will be weakened if the most passengers with nonrefundable tickets do not cancel. On the other hand, if the argument assumes higher profits would result from sale of only discounted tickets, it is not sure what kind of travel demand exists between the two cities. If the argument had clearly mentioned any evidence of a high travel demand between the two cities, then it would have been a lot more convincing.
Finally, has the airline considered terminating current loss making routes and other areas of cost-cutting such as making certain complimentary services optional? Also, does any other airline already have a thriving commuter route between these two cities? Without convincing answers to these questions, one is left with an impression that the claim is more wishful thinking than substantive evidence.
In conclusion, due to the above mentioned reaosns, the argument is flawed and unconvincing. It could be considerably strengthened if it had mentioned all the relevant facts such as nature of the new businesses and travel demand between the two cities. In order to assess the merits of the claim that Avia Airlines should establish a commuter route between Beaumont and Fletcher, it is essential to have full knowledge of all contributing factors. Without this information, the argument remains unsubstantiated and open to debate.