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Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, unauthorized imm

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Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, unauthorized imm [#permalink]

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Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, illegal immigration is an important issue in the current race for mayor. Of the two candidates for mayor, one supports a plan that would attempt to deport the city’s 9,000 illegal immigrants and the other does not. Surveys consistently show that about 60% of the city’s residents are opposed to the plan, while about 35% are in support of the plan. Therefore, the candidate who does not support the plan will win the election for mayor.

All of the following statements weaken the analyst’s argument, EXCEPT:

(A) In the city at issue, most voters make their voting decisions based on the candidates’ positions on abortion.

(B) Of the 35% of residents who support the plan, some are willing to consider alternate plans for addressing illegal immigration.

(C) Many of the residents who oppose the plan are not registered voters.

(D) The candidate who supports the plan is the incumbent mayor, and has been elected to four consecutive terms despite taking controversial positions on many important issues.

(E) Just under 30% of the city’s residents are illegal immigrants who cannot vote.
[Reveal] Spoiler: OA

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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, unauthorized imm [#permalink]

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Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, illegal immigration is an important issue in the current race for mayor. Of the two candidates for mayor, one supports a plan that would attempt to deport the city’s 9,000 illegal immigrants and the other does not. Surveys consistently show that about 60% of the city’s residents are opposed to the plan, while about 35% are in support of the plan. Therefore, the candidate who does not support the plan will win the election for mayor.

All of the following statements weaken the analyst’s argument, EXCEPT:

A. In the city at issue, most voters make their voting decisions based on the candidates’ positions on abortion.
B. Of the 35% of residents who support the plan, some are willing to consider alternate plans for addressing illegal immigration.
C. Many of the residents who oppose the plan are not registered voters.
D. The candidate who supports the plan is the incumbent mayor, and has been elected to four consecutive terms despite taking controversial positions on many important issues.
E. Just under 30% of the city’s residents are illegal immigrants who cannot vote.


My choice is D. The conclusion is not drawn on the basis of candidate's performance but on the illegal immigrant issue at hand hence does not effect analyst's argument. Also, all other options are in some way or the other related to premise.
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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, unauthorized imm [#permalink]

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New post 14 Oct 2009, 14:18
I would go with [B].
Looking for something that says that despite what the survey results indicate, supporting the plan may not result in the candidate losing the election.

[A] states that abortion is a higher priority issue than immigration so support/opposition to the immigration plan will not matter.
[C], [E] state that a large proportion of the number who support the plan are either inelligible to vote or not registered to vote, so survey results are questionable.
[D] suggests that the candidate who supports the plan has won in the past despite taking positions that may be against popular support. (read controversial)

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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, unauthorized imm [#permalink]

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B here as well.

Took me a while to figure it out but heres my explanation:

B says the 35% people who support the plan aren't really sure so they might switch to the other candidate. This supports the analyst argument that the person who oppose the plan will win the election.

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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, unauthorized imm [#permalink]

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hogann wrote:
Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, illegal immigration is an important issue in the current race for mayor. Of the two candidates for mayor, one supports a plan that would attempt to deport the city’s 9,000 illegal immigrants and the other does not. Surveys consistently show that about 60% of the city’s residents are opposed to the plan, while about 35% are in support of the plan. Therefore, the candidate who does not support the plan will win the election for mayor.

All of the following statements weaken the analyst’s argument, EXCEPT:

A. In the city at issue, most voters make their voting decisions based on the candidates’ positions on abortion.
B. Of the 35% of residents who support the plan, some are willing to consider alternate plans for addressing illegal immigration.
C. Many of the residents who oppose the plan are not registered voters.
D. The candidate who supports the plan is the incumbent mayor, and has been elected to four consecutive terms despite taking controversial positions on many important issues.
E. Just under 30% of the city’s residents are illegal immigrants who cannot vote.


This is a very straight forward question.
Candidate M1 proposed a plan to deport illegal immigrants. 35% of the population support it. Candidate M2 is silent about the issue, 60% of the population seem to support him. Therefore, M2 will win is the conclusion. We have to find the option that does not weaken the author's argument, in other words, strengthens it, affirms that M2 will win.

A - Abortion is out of scope.
B - If out of 35% some are willing to consider alternate plans, they may shift to M2 and M2 will win.
C - 60% group mostly contains unregistered voters. So they cannot vote and less chances of M2 winning.
D - M1 is incumbent (currently in office) but statement has nothing to do.
E - 30% are illegal immigrants who cannot vote, this may be divided between the two groups that take different stances as noticed, this statement has nothing to do with the argument at hand.

Direct win is B.
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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, unauthorized imm [#permalink]

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New post 15 Oct 2009, 08:18
OA B

This does not weaken the argument. In fact, if some of those who support the plan are willing to reconsider, they may ultimately oppose the original plan and decide to vote for the candidate who is also in opposition.

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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, unauthorized imm [#permalink]

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New post 15 Oct 2009, 15:01
Conclusion of the argument is - the candidate who does not support the plan(deporting 9000 illegal immigrants.

One mayor supports the plan. 35% of the city residents support the plan
Another mayor does NOT support the plan. 60% of the city residents does NOT support the plan.

Based on the figures - because 60% of the city residents do NOT support the plan of deporting, the mayor who do not support the plan will win the election.

Now look at the ans choices and eliminate the one which DOES NOT weaken the conclusion.

A. This will be weakening the conclusion because people support the mayor based on his / her position on voters but NOT on the proposed plan in discussion. Rule out this option.
B. Possible ans.
C. This choice also weakens the conclusion because many of the residents who oppose the plan(many of 60% residents) cannot vote. So there is no guarantee that the mayor opposing the plan will win the election. Rule out this option.
D. This choice also weakens the conclusion because the mayor who supports the plan is currently the mayor and has record of winning the elections inspite of him taking the controversial positions on imp issues. So there is no guarantee that the mayor who does not support the plan will win the elections. Rule out this option.
E. This choice also weakens the conclusion because 30% are illegal immigrants and they cannot vote. And from the remaining 70%, 35% support the mayor who supports the plan. Hence there is no guarantee that the mayor who opposes the plan will win the election. Rule out this option.

So my take is B.

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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, unauthorized imm [#permalink]

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New post 19 Oct 2009, 04:55
B support and so dose not weaken

E is irrelevant and so dose not weaken

both B and E is correct. WRONG QUESTION.

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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, unauthorized imm [#permalink]

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New post 22 Oct 2009, 16:25
E weaken analyst assumption that all the residents are eligible to vote and the survey results are basis for election results. Just under 30% could be 27, 28, 29%... so that would mean out of 60%, only about 31-33% are voters which makes the 35% residents who support the mayor biggest group -> means mayor could win.

B is the correct answer because it throws open the possibility that out of the 35% some may vote for other plans.

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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, unauthorized imm [#permalink]

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New post 21 Mar 2011, 01:14
The answer is B, as on a closer look it seems to strengthen the conclusion.
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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, unauthorized imm [#permalink]

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New post 12 Jul 2011, 10:05
Hi Asmit,

The underlying assumption here is that:
Agreement with the plan, as show by the survey, dictates how people will vote.
Another assumption is that there are no other factors that are more major than this.

So a weakener would be something that casts doubt on this.
However we want a "non-weakener" AKA a strengthener or something irrelevant

A. If people base their decision primarily on abortion then this plan isn't important. Thus it WEAKENS the assumption that agreement with the plan dictates how people vote.
B. The fact that the MINORITY is willing to consider alternate plans doesn't weaken the argument. The vote is won/lost on the majority
C. If many of the residents who oppose can't vote, then the poll isn't an accurate reflection of the voting abilities. This weakens the assumption that the survey shows how people vote.
D. If a guy who's taken controversial positions has often won then perhaps there are other factors more major than this.
E. Tricky choice right? I bet you might've picked this. You don't know the breakdown as to which part of the 30% is opposed/in support of. Therefore the conclusion may very well be weakened.

Hope this helps!

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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, unauthorized imm [#permalink]

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New post 12 Jul 2011, 20:51
DYNAMITE wrote:
Hi Asmit,

The underlying assumption here is that:
Agreement with the plan, as show by the survey, dictates how people will vote.
Another assumption is that there are no other factors that are more major than this.

So a weakener would be something that casts doubt on this.
However we want a "non-weakener" AKA a strengthener or something irrelevant




Hi DYNAMITE,

As far as I understand weaken/ strengthen question should directly destory/support the conclusion of the argumnet. They are independent of the underlying assumption.

Correct me if i am wrong.

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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, unauthorized imm [#permalink]

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New post 24 Jan 2012, 21:46
Clear answer is B, because all others in some way weaken the argument.
The argument being the "candidate who does not support the plan will win the election for mayor. "

If the 35% of people are looking for an alternative plan to address illegal immigrants has no relevance on how the candidate will win/lose the election for mayor.
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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, unauthorized imm [#permalink]

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New post 16 May 2012, 22:48
+1 B

The fact that that 35% of people could accept an alternative plan doesn't eliminate the fact that there is a 35% of people who support the plan and a 65% who are against it.
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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, unauthorized imm [#permalink]

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New post 16 May 2012, 22:57
monir6000 wrote:
Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, illegal immigration is an important issue in the current race for mayor. Of the two candidates for mayor, one supports a plan that would attempt to deport the city’s 9,000 illegal immigrants and the other does not. Surveys consistently show that about 60% of the city’s residents are opposed to the plan, while about 35% are in support of the plan. Therefore, the candidate who does not support the plan will win the election for mayor.

All of the following statements weaken the analyst’s argument, EXCEPT:
A. In the city at issue, most voters make their voting decisions based on the candidates’ positions on abortion.
B. Of the 35% of residents who support the plan, some are willing to consider alternate plans for addressing illegal immigration.
C. Many of the residents who oppose the plan are not registered voters.
D. The candidate who supports the plan is the incumbent mayor, and has been elected to four consecutive terms despite taking controversial positions on many important issues.
E. Just under 30% of the city’s residents are illegal immigrants who cannot vote.


Hi Monir

Clearly we can narrow down the choices to B or D

Let's break down this argument so we can understand why D does weaken:

Conclusion: The candidate who does not support the deportation plan will win the mayoral election.
Premise: One candidate has a deportation plan; the other does not. Of the voting populace, 60% oppose the deportation plan and 35% support it.
Assumption: People's beliefs about the deportation plan will determine how they vote in the election.

To weaken, we attack the assumption. We find that even though the mayor has had prior controversial opinions on issues he has been re-elected four times. Thus, clearly holding controversial opinions has not determined whether he could be elected, and people do not entirely vote on the basis of a candidate's position on controversial issues.. This attacks the assumption in the argument.

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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, unauthorized imm [#permalink]

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New post 17 May 2012, 22:24
Argument States :

Surveys consistently show that about 60% of the city’s residents are opposed to the plan.
=> Candidate (A) who opposes the plan would implicitly have majority unless (anything that weakens the argument) happens

Option B says, 35% of 40% voters (residents who support the plan) may either become indifferent to the plan or supporter of alternative plan
=> Candidate (B) who is supporting the plan would either loose or keep constant his vote share.
So this is the only option which goes against Candidate B and is indifferent to / in support of Candidate A.
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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, unauthorized imm [#permalink]

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New post 25 Jun 2012, 06:17
Correct answer is B.

If of the 35% who favor the deportation plan some are willing to consider other options, that is a further attrition of the votes of the pro-deportation candidate. This actually strengthens the argument.

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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, unauthorized imm [#permalink]

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greatps24 wrote:
Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, illegal immigration is an important issue in the current race for mayor. Of the two candidates for mayor, one supports a plan that would attempt to deport the city’s 9,000 illegal immigrants and the other does not. Surveys consistently show that about 60% of the city’s residents are opposed to the plan, while about 35% are in support of the plan. Therefore, the candidate who does not support the plan will win the election for mayor.

All of the following statements weaken the analyst’s argument, EXCEPT:

a. In the city at issue, most voters make their voting decisions based on the candidates’ positions on abortion.
b. Of the 35% of residents who support the plan, some are willing to consider alternate plans for addressing illegal immigration.
c. Many of the residents who oppose the plan are not registered voters.
d. The candidate who supports the plan is the incumbent mayor, and has been elected to four consecutive terms despite taking controversial positions on many important issues.
e. Just under 30% of the city’s residents are illegal immigrants who cannot vote.

[Reveal] Spoiler:
OA soon. Please explain the PoE


(A) If voters make their decision based on abortion then a candidate's position on the illegal immigration proposal will have no effect on his/her candidacy, thus weakening the conclusion.

(C) If many of the residents who oppose the plan are not registered voters then it will put the group which opposes the plan in minority. So, the candidate so opposes the plan may not necessarily win the election. This choice also weakens the conclusion.

(D) This choice directly attacks the assumption that the argument makes - People's opinions decide which candidate will win the election. If a candidate is re-ellected multiple times in spite of his support for controversial issues, then people's opinions do not matter in election.

(E) If around 30% of the residents are illegal immigrants then the percentage of people who oppose the plan would drop to 30%. So the candidate who opposes the plan may not necessarily win the election.
Now the only choice that is left is (b), the answer

Reason why B is correct. If 35% people who support the plan are considering alternate ways to address the immigration, then these people may not vote for the candidate who supports the plan and may vote the candidate who opposes the plan. This choice strengthens the conclusion.

Hope that helps,

Vercules,

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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, unauthorized imm [#permalink]

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Hi Vercules
I agree that B is correct. But was hard to eliminate E. For E we will have to assume that 30% of the illegal immigrants were a part of 65% of people , who opposed the plan, basis on which conclusion was drawn that candidates who support the plan may stand to lose the election.

How would you categorize E with respect to the correct answer types in case of cause and effect reasoning. Is it weakening the survey type of answer.

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Re: Political Analyst: Because our city is a border city, unauthorized imm [#permalink]

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New post 17 Feb 2013, 07:33
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Archit143 wrote:
Hi Vercules
I agree that B is correct. But was hard to eliminate E. For E we will have to assume that 30% of the illegal immigrants were a part of 65% of people , who opposed the plan, basis on which conclusion was drawn that candidates who support the plan may stand to lose the election.

How would you categorize E with respect to the correct answer types in case of cause and effect reasoning. Is it weakening the survey type of answer.

Archit


Hi Archit,

Yes, for sure it is weakening the argument. But, the argument does not have a cause and effect reasoning. Answer choice (E) is not weakening the survey but the conclusion. It is providing new data about the survey, in light of which the results of the given survey would change, thus, weakening the conclusion.

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