My Predictions for the R1 Next Season: I had a chance to hear some feedback from consultants and business schools who have attended a recent AIGAC conference (it was a mix of admissions consultants and Admissions directors from a number of business schools). Based on that information, I have some thoughts. Some of these are facts actually and others are predictions FACTS: All deadlines, applications, and pretty much all other structure will remain the same for R1 and next application season. This is what many business schools said during the event. Rod Garcia from MIT Sloan went as far as to mention that when they change their application structure, they see a decline in the number of applicants, so they are trying to keep things "simple" and not change any of the requirements, structure, or other details. Many Schools said they are keeping their Tuition the same and freezing any increases (nobody said decrease) Many are including OPT as a part of the MBA program, thus making an internship a required part of the MBA program and avoiding issues in case international students are not able to attend full 9 months that OPT requires them to be in the country (US programs only) Some schools such as NY Stern already announced they will have on-campus classes come September. MIT also said that since the MBA students are not living in dorms, are not eating in the cafeteria, and likely more mature, they would be some of the first ones back on campus. GMAT Club traffic is spiking (we are 40-50% higher than expected in terms of posts, timers taken, and pageviews), I am seeing strong interest in the MBA, Masters degrees, and overall career change than usually expected from a fairly slow month of May. At this point, the activity in the past 30 days has exceeded activity in our busiest months of July, January, and October. PREDICTIONS: While HBS has a nice option for Applicants to defer for any reason (during a short 2-week period between May 15 and May 31), the rest of the schools are not following that. Blanket deferrals will NOT happen. Schools have no option but to resist this and band together. This they are already doing. Sorry, but no deferrals unless you can't get a visa for most schools: https://gmatclub.com/forum/deferral-sta ... 23294.html with some accepting applicants in January or offering online options for international candidates. Deferring people will create an unbalanced class load and schools are trying to avoid it. If pandemic continues, some people will drop out but I am not expecting it to be massive or anything huge. My prediction is that the impact of deferrals and drop outs will be less than 15% thus not impacting this coming R1 too much. The reason for my logic is that there are not that many options right now. I would only see dropouts happen on a bigger scale only if the economy comes back to a very swift recovery which is unlikely by August. BSchool still remains the best place to weather the uncertainty. Schools will adapt more with time (they are slow) and as they see the R1 volume and applicant quality, they may choose to increase the size of the program (some have been reducing their sizes over the years). I expect some schools to announce Jan Intake options ( Darden already did) If the pandemic continues, and with current confusion in the US, willingness to travel will impact some schools more than others, creating opportunities for international students. Programs such as MIT, Yale, Berkeley, and others with strong international names will continue to receive quite a bit of international applications. Others such as McCombs, Stern, and possibly even Ross and Tuck should provide applicants with nice opportunities and less competition from international locations. I think if you are an Indian IT guy, you will still have to fight for your life, but EU and South America applicants will get a break. My recommendation is for international applicants to cast a wider net and focus on strong US brands with lesser international recognition for scholarship opportunities, even among the Top 10. While schools are not making any changes for the R1, that is not because they have it all figured out. A recent survey of BSchools found that 45% of Admissions directors expected applicant volumes to go down. There is still a lot of uncertainty and the strategy taken by the Adcoms is a good one - don't change things until there is more information. I am expecting that the volume of applicants will go up with people using bschool as a safety option (just in case), intesifying application volumes to the Top MBA programs. What Are Your Predictions?

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I missed your question. You replied too fast ?

I just learned about Ross myself. That’s pretty generous deferral policy. Things will definitely change, especially if visas are not granted in time for students enrolled in schools that are not being as generous with their policies.

I don’t think all international students will defer even if offered. At the same time, if one has an option, I would probably recommend deferring and many will if able.

In terms of next year and next application season and the impact, we will know closer to when round one starts but I think everyone is expecting it to already be very competitive.

I have a feeling that MBA programs may consider increasing the class-size for 2021 intake to balance things out but you are correct that the proportion of the pearls will come from the international community and if no changes I made it all be a pretty tough year for applicants. Let us hope you are wrong ?

elPatron434

Hi bb ,
Thank you for the detailed post on your predictions for R1 next year. While I agree with most of it, I would love explore

Quote:

If pandemic continues, some people will drop out but I am not expecting it to be massive or anything huge. My prediction is that the impact of deferrals and drop outs will be less than 15% thus not impacting this coming R1 too much. The reason for my logic is that there are not that many options right now. I would only see dropouts happen on a bigger scale only if the economy comes back to a very swift recovery which is unlikely by August. BSchool still remains the best place to weather the uncertainty.

With a potential increase in scrutinizing Visa applicants(both on health and safety grounds and otherwise) and a downturn in the economy for the next couple of years, I have the following question :
1. Colleges like Harvard and Ross( https://gmatclub.com/blog/2020/05/mba-a ... -covid-19/ ) have offered deferrals for International students. Seeing as they make up around 20-40% of every cohort and assuming a 15% of the cohort roll over to the next batch, would it be next to impossible for international students(especially over represented categories like the Indian IT Male) to get into such colleges because of extremely limited vacancies in for the international student at a university?
2. Is there any deferral related statistic(Which most likely wont be disclosed) or statistic on an intake for the upcoming batch that you would recommend an international(Or domestic applicant for that matter) seek out?

Thanks!

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