Predictions for R1

Question

My Predictions for the R1 Next Season: I had a chance to hear some feedback from consultants and business schools who have attended a recent AIGAC conference (it was a mix of admissions consultants and Admissions directors from a number of business schools). Based on that information, I have some thoughts. Some of these are facts actually and others are predictions

FACTS: All deadlines, applications, and pretty much all other structure will remain the same for R1 and next application season. This is what many business schools said during the event. Rod Garcia from MIT Sloan went as far as to mention that when they change their application structure, they see a decline in the number of applicants, so they are trying to keep things "simple" and not change any of the requirements, structure, or other details. Many Schools said they are keeping their Tuition the same and freezing any increases (nobody said decrease) Many are including OPT as a part of the MBA program, thus making an internship a required part of the MBA program and avoiding issues in case international students are not able to attend full 9 months that OPT requires them to be in the country (US programs only) Some schools such as NY Stern already announced they will have on-campus classes come September. MIT also said that since the MBA students are not living in dorms, are not eating in the cafeteria, and likely more mature, they would be some of the first ones back on campus. GMAT Club traffic is spiking (we are 40-50% higher than expected in terms of posts, timers taken, and pageviews), I am seeing strong interest in the MBA, Masters degrees, and overall career change than usually expected from a fairly slow month of May. At this point, the activity in the past 30 days has exceeded activity in our busiest months of July, January, and October. PREDICTIONS: While HBS has a nice option for Applicants to defer for any reason (during a short 2-week period between May 15 and May 31), the rest of the schools are not following that. Blanket deferrals will NOT happen. Schools have no option but to resist this and band together. This they are already doing. Sorry, but no deferrals unless you can't get a visa for most schools: https://gmatclub.com/forum/deferral-sta ... 23294.html with some accepting applicants in January or offering online options for international candidates. Deferring people will create an unbalanced class load and schools are trying to avoid it. If pandemic continues, some people will drop out but I am not expecting it to be massive or anything huge. My prediction is that the impact of deferrals and drop outs will be less than 15% thus not impacting this coming R1 too much. The reason for my logic is that there are not that many options right now. I would only see dropouts happen on a bigger scale only if the economy comes back to a very swift recovery which is unlikely by August. BSchool still remains the best place to weather the uncertainty. Schools will adapt more with time (they are slow) and as they see the R1 volume and applicant quality, they may choose to increase the size of the program (some have been reducing their sizes over the years). I expect some schools to announce Jan Intake options ( Darden already did) If the pandemic continues, and with current confusion in the US, willingness to travel will impact some schools more than others, creating opportunities for international students. Programs such as MIT, Yale, Berkeley, and others with strong international names will continue to receive quite a bit of international applications. Others such as McCombs, Stern, and possibly even Ross and Tuck should provide applicants with nice opportunities and less competition from international locations. I think if you are an Indian IT guy, you will still have to fight for your life, but EU and South America applicants will get a break. My recommendation is for international applicants to cast a wider net and focus on strong US brands with lesser international recognition for scholarship opportunities, even among the Top 10. While schools are not making any changes for the R1, that is not because they have it all figured out. A recent survey of BSchools found that 45% of Admissions directors expected applicant volumes to go down. There is still a lot of uncertainty and the strategy taken by the Adcoms is a good one - don't change things until there is more information. I am expecting that the volume of applicants will go up with people using bschool as a safety option (just in case), intesifying application volumes to the Top MBA programs. What Are Your Predictions?

elPatron434 · Answer

Hi bb ,
Thank you for the detailed post on your predictions for R1 next year. While I agree with most of it, I would love explore

Quote:

If pandemic continues, some people will drop out but I am not expecting it to be massive or anything huge. My prediction is that the impact of deferrals and drop outs will be less than 15% thus not impacting this coming R1 too much. The reason for my logic is that there are not that many options right now. I would only see dropouts happen on a bigger scale only if the economy comes back to a very swift recovery which is unlikely by August. BSchool still remains the best place to weather the uncertainty.

With a potential increase in scrutinizing Visa applicants(both on health and safety grounds and otherwise) and a downturn in the economy for the next couple of years, I have the following question :
1. Colleges like Harvard and Ross( https://gmatclub.com/blog/2020/05/mba-a ... -covid-19/ ) have offered deferrals for International students. Seeing as they make up around 20-40% of every cohort and assuming a 15% of the cohort roll over to the next batch, would it be next to impossible for international students(especially over represented categories like the Indian IT Male) to get into such colleges because of extremely limited vacancies in for the international student at a university?
2. Is there any deferral related statistic(Which most likely wont be disclosed) or statistic on an intake for the upcoming batch that you would recommend an international(Or domestic applicant for that matter) seek out?

Thanks!

altairahmad · Answer

Great post  bb

I think most of this hinges on whether or not B-Schools can guarantee the 'B-School Experience'. It's definitely not going to happen with an all-online experience. I think most of the B-Schools will be forced to go at-least hybrid (online and in-person mix), if not fully in-person as before. How will other activities like group (e.g consulting) sessions, networking events etc be impacted ? Since a B-School is a wholesome experience, a lot of it will be impacted by 'social distancing' alone.

I also do not think that it is fair to charge the incoming students same fee as before (more ? no way !!) This might also play some role in how the applications will be impacted.

I guess it is safe to say that at least by next year fall, the B-school experience will not be the same, as institutions and individuals will be careful regarding safety and exposure and will not go beyond a certain threshold.

Although many countries in the world have started opening up, schools/colleges/universities (and hair salons !) are the last places that most of these countries are thinking of opening soon.

Don't you think that B-Schools might have to 'reduce' the class size to reduce the health risks and to ensure they can implement the health and safety guidelines more efficiently (especially if enforced by law) ?

bb · Answer

Honestly I am not sure that I buy the tuition reduction argument. Many of the universities have actually had an increase in costs as the result of the pandemic. For some universities, it has forced them to close the doors. WSJ has a pretty grim article about it. I am not sure that one can argue that because their experience has been diminished by the coronavirus, that it Hass to be cheaper. If anything, it appears it may be more expensive. I personally do not believe that schools have to refund or decrease anything. I think it would be awesome if they could find a way to lower the tuition cost to align it with the diminished value but moves like that often require time.

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altairahmad · Answer

bb  as for your data on GMATClub, do you see a spike in new user registration or unique hits ? It might just be that since same people have more time on their hands (work from home and forced quarantine etc), they are more involved now than before (this is true for me at least).

bb · Answer

Thx for asking. New registrations too at the same 40-50% level.

The only fallacy I can think of is that potentially some people have shifted their preparation from the later time to current months. Thus instead of preparing in June and July and hitting the peak in August, people are shifting their prep earlier. I don’t know how likely this is But knowing that applications increase during bad economic years, I’m not sure I would support the shift theory. It has been very consistent 40 to 50% bump for the last month or so so it’s not a spike per se

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QuabityAssurance · Answer

I am sure that even GRE Prep Club would have seen an increase in traffic probably because of the absurdity involved in the online whiteboard while ETS allowing a physical whiteboard.

I also expect an increase in application in R1 with more GRE scores.

Additionally, I expect an increase in revenue for both ETS and GMAC with online options coming in.

With on-campus activity being dormant I see schools have been fairly active in virtual fairs and events . This marketing machinate seems to be working and many schools beyond Top 50 (FT rankings) are gaining an audience and perhaps will get more applications.

The business of business schools continue to grow.

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altairahmad · Answer

You make an interesting point about Top 50+ schools. If it happens when most of the schools have hybrid or on-line course delivery, it will make a lot of sense in term of USD to B-School experience ratio (e.g Krannert).

bb · Answer

Good question. I just pulled up some basic GRE Prep Club Analytics details. Feb 2020 vs. Feb 2019 was 35% up (this is just normal growth)
April 2020 vs. April 2019 is 60% up... so it is 25% up but not as much of an impact as GMAT Club... surprisingly. Not sure what to make of this data yet....

QuabityAssurance · Answer

Haha, because GMAT Club is more user friendly and has an expansive network.

GPC has a long way to go.

Many GRE aspirants are still on Reddit but not the case with GMAT aspirants.

Would be interesting to see if there is an increase in application with GRE Scores

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QuabityAssurance · Answer

Haha, because GMAT Club is more user friendly and has an expansive network.

GPC has a long way to go.

Many GRE aspirants are still on Reddit but not the case with GMAT aspirants.

Would be interesting to see if there is an increase in application with GRE Scores

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altairahmad · Answer

For what it's worth.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/22/business/business-schools-coronavirus/index.html

bb · Answer

Thank you. Much of it is true... though a bit dated from April 22. Back when crude was $60 ? and Dow 19k (I am making it up. I can’t remember what they were)

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authoritativefuji · Answer

bb

Do you think that there is a potential effect down the line for Fall 2021 applicants who plan to start their MBA in Fall 2022?

My concern is that many prospective applicants of the Fall 2020 application season might be scared of increased competition and plan to apply the year after.

bb · Answer

I am struggling with figuring out what will happen in 3 months... no way I can really what will happen in a year. It is possible and likely that the application volume will be up for the upcoming as well as the following season due to economy. I don’t think people will be discouraged to apply. Tons of people try to get into Stanford and Harvard who will know they shouldn’t be applying

Thx BB Posted from my mobile device

Nicoz · Answer

It is true that in-person classroom experience can not be replaced by zoom. That's why people pay so much to get the B-School experience. I believe that most of the impact will be seen on those programs that are short-term, 12-month, and rely heavily on international candidates.
It's certainly impossible to predict anything. I mean, who would have thought in 2019 that anything like this could ever happen.

Maxximus · Answer

Hello  bb ,

Great post.

Request you to please elaborate on the following point; sorry, it's not very clear.

Thanks a lot.

Kurtosis · Answer

There is also an attempt to disrupt the university degree model by online models that are not linked to universities at all. These non university models boast about a superior coding experience for tech students who aspire to do a ms and a better networking and learning experience for mba students. If in person classes are cancelled, these non university online graduate models may gain more popularity and decrease the relevance of university degrees altogether.

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bb · Answer

GMAC has done some surveying and analytics about deferral. But that assumes there is a deferral option. Schools do not seem to be offering it..... Also interesting that 14% wanted to change and defer even if no online start. I feel this data may not be accurate or maybe I’m reading the situation completely wrong. ?‍♂️

https://blog.gmac.com/gmac-advisor/woul ... e-learning

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elPatron434 · Answer

Hi  bb , I do concur with GMAC's analysis here. I feel that international students (atleast the ones I've spoken to) are in favour of pushing for a deferral over starting online. The primary reasons seem to be 
1. value for money ( especially for countries like India where the strength of the rupee is falling)
2. the feeling that an on-campus experience would be more enriching 
3. A few of them want to see how the pandemic plays out( I've seen this especially with people who're happy with their current employment ).

With online classes causing a time zone constraint for the countries in the east and with elections coming up, I wouldn't be very surprised if a majority of the deferrals come from the international students.

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