When I looked at your profile and thought about your chances at H/S, the first thing that came to my mind was ‘close but no cigar’. Everything falls a little short for these schools, especially given your background/demographic.
Don’t get me wrong. Your profile is strong but just not exciting enough for H or S. Your tri-athlete bit is interesting but unless you’ve had a top 5 finish at a respectable event, I don’t think it’s going to help much. Keep in mind that whenever your GPA and/or GMAT are below a schools median, you have to bring something extra to the table for them to accept you.
Having said that though, I think you definitely stand a chance at all of the other schools. I’ll talk about your chances at each school.
Wharton – You stand a chance right now if --- your GMAT has a (48Q (+/-1) and 38V (-/+1) split, your GPA has an upward trend (ideally) and obviously your essays show maturity, self-awareness, et al.
Columbia – I think that your best bet is to apply in the ED round. Apply as early as possible. A lot of people with a 700 get in this round. Also, CBS is a very good fit for you given your asset management/IB career goals. It would be tougher for you in the RD round.
Kellogg – I’m not sure why you’ve picked Kellogg given your goals but Kellogg is one school that can be very difficult to predict.
All the other schools (including Chicago) - I think that if you stay on track and put in a reasonably strong application, you should get in. Customize your essays a little to include stories/anecdotes that go well with each school’s values. These applications are for you to screw up.
Lastly, just wish to point out that a HF/PE job will be incredibly difficult to get even at H or S. Most people don’t realize this but the people who get those jobs at H/S or anywhere else usually have relevant experience in those fields. You could get lucky but in the current economic climate, your chances are slim. You might be better off pursuing an inv management role or IB role and then moving to a HF or PE group respectively.
Also, if you’re GMAT isn’t balanced, I would definitely recommend taking it again especially if you can cross 720 (740 would be ideal). Unfortunately, with the huge increase in applications over the years, 720 is the new 700.