Psychics claim to be gifted with powers that enable them

Question

Psychics claim to be gifted with powers that enable them to foretell future events. In the past, psychics have predicted numerous actual events, including the election of president obama, the stock market crash of 2008, and the boston red sox's 2007 world series victory.

The answer to which of the following questions would be most useful in evaluating the validity of the claim that psychics are able to accurately foretell future events?

A. What percentage of psychic's predictions have come true?
B. Could the election of President Obama have been predicted without the help of psychic powers?
C. What is the actual mechanism by which these psychic powers are alleged to operate?
D. How long before the events in question do psychics make their accurate predictions
E. Do most scientists accept the idea that the power to predict the future through psychic means really exists?

bhatiamanu05 · Answer

In this question: We are discussing that Psychics claim something about future and it happen in future.

POE works out very well:
Option A -- It is a good option. To know what percentage of claims made by psychics is true. It will give a fair idea about truth of claims.
Option B-- It is too narrow (As it discuss just one point about President Obama)
Option C-- It is out of scope(It does not even matter how they make claims either by stars or by numerology)
Option D -- It is also a good option But look 'How long before' It talks about time even if claim is made just one day ago or 2 weeks ago, it does not mean anything) Either it is ture or not.
Option E-- Ou of scope ( Scientist agree about claims -- naaaa it does not even talk about any scientific thing here).

So the best choice remain is A.

Thanks,
AB

suntwin · Answer

Tough call between A and D
However I am more inclined to D.

Even if a low percentage of claims come true still they are able to predict something.

In the other hand, timing is crucial. If psychics predict that Obama just a day before results it might not be the powers they hold that tell them Obama will win but the surveys and odds in favour.

However if they can predict lets say a result 4 years from now . Lets say an election result in 2020 then they certainly can claim to have powers to predict.

Imo D is more closer

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sadovskiya · Answer

This is a tough one to spot. But I think the key word to make sure and catch in the question stem is their ability to  accuratey   foretell future events

A. Percentages usualy tell the accuracy of results
B. Out of scope. We're not comparing powers to no powers
C. This was my second choice. But again the word play of accuracy and percentages jumped out
D. The length of prediction is not the question.
E. Completely out of scope.

Hope that helps.

kaladhar · Answer

A. What percentage of psychic's predictions have come true? There could be two answers for this question. 1. Very high -- which means Psychics CAN predict the future 2. Very low -- which means Psychics CANNOT predict future. Hence CORRECT answer B. Could the election of President Obama have been predicted without the help of psychic powers? Two possible answers for this question. 1. Yes- Even though some one can predict without Psychic powers doesn't mean that Psychics can/cannot predict. 2. NO- same as above Hence wrong answer C. What is the actual mechanism by which these psychic powers are alleged to operate? The mechanism is irrelevant D. How long before the events in question do psychics make their accurate predictions Two possible answers 1. Very long -- This doesn't tell us whether Physics can/cannot predict the future. Even if they predict well before the event took place, they might be guessing. 2. NOT very long-- Even if they predict just before the event occurred and they predicted correct EVERY single time they can be considered accurate. But if they predict just before the event occurred and they are wrong MOST of the times, they can be considered as inaccurate Hence this option is WRONG E. Do most scientists accept the idea that the power to predict the future through psychic means really exists? This option is irrelevant. Please consider KUDOS if it helps.

surbhi87 · Answer

Initially i thought so too but on a closer look you'll see why A is the better of the two options. 
Timings isnt even half as crucial as the %age of correct prediction.
Eg: even if the psychic predicted one day before the election results, it still remains a prediction . Nobody knows what the results actually are until declared. You'll always say "MAYBE " he'll win. You'll not be sure. However, if you say he WILL win, that's a prediction. Psychics do that and so, the timing doesn't matter as much as the %age . Below is why its so.

%age of correct prediction: You'd need to how many of my predictions came true ! Else, may-be the 'psychic' got lucky the one time (3 times in this case).

I could've made 1000,000,004,637,999 predictions but only 3 of them came true- namely obama elction, stock mkt crash, and boston sox. This doesnt make me a psychic.

sammervash · Answer

Goal: find out the validity of the psychic's predictions.

A. What percentage of psychic's predictions have come true?
In other words, what percentage of the predictions have come true? This is a very relevant question -- raw numbers can be incredibly misleading. For example, if someone told you to eat poison, and said that over 9000 have done so without dying, that means it'd be pretty unlikely that you'd die, right? It's a high number after all. However, you'd probably want to ask "Out of how many people who ate it survived?". If you were told "Well... out of 1 billion" -- WELL... you might want to reconsider, given that less than 1% have actually survived... not to mention that it's poison, so maybe just don't talk to strangers from now on, OK?

B. Could the election of President Obama have been predicted without the help of psychic powers?
Irrelevant. We want to know if psychics actually could predict the election.

C. What is the actual mechanism by which these psychic powers are alleged to operate?
Irrelevant. Mechanism doesn't matter if psychics can't predict the future... which is what we're trying to figure out.

D. How long before the events in question do psychics make their accurate predictions?
Irrelevant. We aren't wondering how long it takes; we're wondering about whether or not the claim is even true.

E. Do most scientists accept the idea that the power to predict the future through psychic means really exists?
Irrelevant. Even if scientists accepted the idea, it doesn't tell us that psychics can predict the future.

DrFeelgood · Answer

You have to tackle the validity of the "numerous actual events" claim. Hence the accuracy/percentage.

krndatta · Answer

EducationAisle ,

Please evaluate my reasoning for option D.

1st answer:- Very Long. if they make their prediction very long before the actual event, then we cannot be sure whether they can foretell or not.

2nd Answer:- Quite recent/ or just one day before the event:- Then also we cannot be sure whether they can tell the future or not. Hence answering both the questions does not impact our conclusion.

Is my reasoning correct?

EducationAisle · Answer

Yes basically, the  time  of the prediction does  not  matter; as long as the prediction is true (irrespective of the time), we can conclude that they can foretell future events.

Psychics claim to be gifted with powers that enable them

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