ESSAY QUESTION:
The following appeared in a trade publication for the insurance industry:
“Each generation of Americans has lived longer than the ones preceding it, as the national life expectancy has approached 80 years old in recent years. The progress of medical technology shows no sign of abating. Therefore, we can confidently predict that most children born in America in the next decade will live past the age of ninety.”
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
YOUR RESPONSE:
The argument appeared in trade publication says that since each generation of Americans has lived longer than the ones preceding it, as the national life expectancy has approached 80 years old in recent years. The progress of medical technology shows no sign of abating. Therefore, it can be confidently predicted that most children born in America in the next decade will live past the age of ninety. But the argument is based on improper assumptions which are discussed below.
There is no guarantee of life on earth. And there is no reason to assume that whatever happened in the past will continue further in the future. Even if each generation lived longer than the generation before it, the national life expectancy has approached 80 years only in all these years. Even with less medication facilities there are so many people who lived more than 100 or so in old times with their life style and quality of life.
And the writer opines that progress of medical technology shows no sign of becoming weak. Even if the technology progresses without looking back there are so many medical cases of serious ailments in developed country America itself. Ever since the beginning of the medical history we have been progressing in the technology but nevertheless so many times people are struck by deadly diseases like plague, cholera, cancer and AIDS. So even medical technology can help treat and prevent few diseases affecting mankind still it would be extreme to conclude that progress of medical technology will help increase the life expectancy.
With the current life style containing stress, ambitious nature of citizens, multitasking to catch the speed of generation, increasing usage of iPad, laptops and other devices, fast food culture and other reasons that follow the life can decrease rather than increase as expected by the author. There are no proper evidences submitted by the author to support his argument.
Most children born in America may or not live past the age of ninety. While the possibility cannot be denied we cannot conclude the same based on progress of medical technology or simply because each generation of Americans has lived longer than the ones preceding it as per above discussions. The argument as is without being supported by additional documents is highly unacceptable and improper to make.