Thanks for your advice.
There was 1 program that I realized was not a great fit after I visited campus and would not re-apply to next year, but several others that I thought were really excellent fits. I spent a lot of time on the essays, researching the schools (spending a lot of vacation time and money to visit them all in person), reflecting on my goals, etc. In fact, one interview even ended in the interviewer telling me that he thought that program was the best fit for me (which I had thought was a good thing). I don't think I'm overrepresented, although not really underrepresented either. I did not use any consulting services, although I had a friend look over my applications, and he thought they were well-written and convincing. I'm not sure if it was a case of being close but just not quite good enough, or if there was some red flag that I should be aware of and need to correct.