should internationals be worried about the US economy

Question

I just want to throw this topic out there:

With all the bad news coming out of the US and the recession that most people are now starting to accept as taking hold in the US, should international students be seriously thinking about going to schools in Europe or Asia rather than the US.
Many so called experts are saying that this recession is going to be very deep. They say it might not be too bad but it will be long. Some other experts say something else: The latest article on Economist is paticularly alarming:
https://www.economist.com/daily/news/dis ... 6&fsrc=nwl

So let's have it from the gmatclub experts.....

abhijit_sen · Answer

First thing recession is not a bad thing in long term. It is a just correction needed to economy after few every few years. Yes you should be worried about it but in short term and in longer term it is going to benefit. Moreover if you start study now and by the time your course get over and by and large recession should also get over by then. So it will be golden time for hitting the market.

togafoot · Answer

The causes of the recession and how the economy pulls itself out of recession are the important factors because this is where future jobs may lie. The move away from manufacturing to services and the outsourcing services to developing countries has changed the economic landscape in developed countries, will there be a change in the financial services landscape? If you consider that a lot of the IBs went to the middle east to secure funding, and countries with trade surpluses are still cash heavy and very liquid it makes sense for an financial services explosion in India and China as their policies, infrastructure and trade agreements mature. Currently its all set up in Singapore and Hong Kong. If the major trading hubs were to gradually move to the East, i believe financial services will also move over. As it is, the USA still has enormous financial clout, but in the long term??!!

Also, there seems to be a trend of developing super companies battling out to dominate markets, reducing the number of competitors through M&A. Will this reduce the number of opportunities in developed companies as they look to maximise profit by moving R&D, manufacturing and the whole supply chain process to developing countries? Afterall these sort of moves allows them to keep prices at a premium and keep profits up particularly in times of recession. Even companies like Tata are becoming global forces in the car industry, Mittel in the steel industry, China Mobile, the worlds biggest Cell phone operator, as these developing giants grow, they will help their countries evolve. As these countries develop they will become less reliant on Western money (as is currently the case)

The West will have to rely on innovation to keep driving forward, new products, new features, new technologies new services. This is where i believe the basis of the continuing strength of the West lies whilst the developing countries are still in service mode, but i wouldn't expect this to last, innovation is a part of Western business culture and when this business culture is spread through the multinationals, it will improve innovation in developing countries as they adopt this attitude.

Will more people go to schools in Europe and Asia... Yes, Europe already have some very well established schools.... Asia? I think this is a different. There will be a few established (establishing schools), but already some of the top US (and European) schools are branching out into this area, either by partnering or setting up campuses (e.g INSEAD in singapore, Wharton helping to set up SMU in Singapore, Partnerships such as the Kellogg-HKUST MBA, Columbia/LBS & HKU partnership etc.) Singapore, in particular, is trying to set itself up as country to go to for academic development so expect fierce competition in that region in the future.

So to answer the question, i don't think our generation of MBA attenders need worry, but the next generation will have a completley different economic landscape. We are at the start of a major economic shift. Look at how quickly Japan did it after WWII!!!

just my 2pence.

sterny · Answer

i think the recession is the last thing you want to worry about...cos the bigger issue for international applicants is gonna be the H-1 visa given that its a lottery ..

so if you really wanna work here, even IF you get a job, you may not get a visa

loom · Answer

Agreed.

I think the recession is going to pressure employers to hire U.S. citizens & Permanent Residents first. After all, if I have two equally qualified candidates, and one requires an additional $5,000 investment for legal paperwork, after which he/she may or may not get selected by the lottery, who do you think I'm going to choose?

But there will always be those who succeed in finding permanent employment, so don't give up!

700willdo · Answer

Great posts guys. Although its a scary situation for international I think your posts help internationals to make wise decisions. Just keep the posts going because they are really helpful atleast for me

defenestrate · Answer

Worrying about the economy might not yeild any positive results. If we assume (which I do) that we are already in the midst of a recession, then it is fair to assume that in two years we will be on our way out of the recession...they tend not to last more than two years. In that case, if you are a 2010 candidate this situation could work to your advantage as companies should be adding jobs by then. Of course there is the chance that this recession will prove to be a huge one. If that is the case then we can expect an extended drop in the value of the dollar (good for you loans, bad for some investments) so there is a little positive there.

I do not think you need to worry about the economy so much as worrying about networking, studying, and landing a good internship. Try to seek how a recession can help you in the long run (all those being laid off now will need to be replaced when we start a new uptrend).

good luck

I do not think you need to worry about the economy so much as worrying about networking, studying, and landing a good internship. Try to seek how a recession can help you in the long run (all those being laid off now will need to be replaced when we start a new uptrend).

good luck

togafoot · Answer

Interesting article in business week :-

https://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/c ... related_AK

More about not worrying about the recession in the USA if you consider the expansion of BRIC, and how the global economic landscape is changing.

700willdo · Answer

that was a good article toga. Thanx and I guess this just adds one more good reason to go to schools with strong presence in Asia and the emerging economies.

ujjib · Answer

Another article on how Indian MBA salaries are going through the roof.

https://www.businessweek.com/bschools/co ... op+stories

I do not know if internationals should be worried, but I personally am a bit worried. Everyone keeps telling me that this is the best time to go to bschool, and I definitely disagree. We can never tell how long the recession will last, and the last time it hit in 2001, the job market didn't improve till early 2004. I think we will all get good jobs in the end, but it would still suck not to get into our first, second or third choices..The visa quota thing is a headache for fresh H1 applicants, and the rest, with fewer years of H1 remaining, will feel restricted in the employment market...

89nk · Answer

So does this mean other country business schools are performing better in placement compared to US business schools? Also, how crediable are the businessweek articles?

togafoot · Answer

How i Interpret it is that there are many opportunities for anyone going to b-school. Whether it be in the USA or not. I don't think you can compare directly an Int. b-school vs a USA b-school because they are working within different economies and cultures.

However, if you are at a good school and are internationally minded, then it means you should have more options whereever you go to school.

However, if you are at a good school and are internationally minded, then it means you should have more options whereever you go to school.

sm332 · Answer

Spot on with your analysis here.

I reckon the biggest factor for internationals needs to be 'would your decision to come change if you couldnt work in the USA?' If the answer to that is yes, then one needs to very cognizant of the risks implicit given the current visa situation.

ncp · Answer

I heard from many students during an admit weekend that internationals should be more worried about visa than about the economy. The latter is somewhat self-correcting and should be on the upswing when we are in school, but the visa process is going to get more and more painful. One U-grad senior of mine is jobless - he was told by 3 companies that although they like him, they are not in a positon to hire someone who may not get a visa later.

sm332 · Answer

Yes this is a hassle and has been for some years now. I did my UG in the USA and had 5 offers 9 months prior to graduating. Ended up going with a firm and then couldnt work in the US because they were no visa slots to be had. The last two years has witnessed visa slots being used up the very day they become available.

Hence, I think it is very important that all international student be open to the option of moving elsewhere (UK, Canada or home country). Clearly not everyone may be in a situation to go back to the home country given the signficant financial onus placed by MBA costs.

700willdo · Answer

hmmm interesting posts huh!!!!!! As if I already didnt have enough to think about, now there is another dimension to think about along with all this recession and jobs etc. Guys can we elaborate on this visa situation a little more because I dont have any idea about it. Have never been to the US. I used to think that if you go to a good school, you have a pretty high chance of landing a good job and that in turn will make getting a visa pretty easi. It looks like I used to think wrong. Let's have some more information regarding this issue from internationals who are already there in the US

sm332 · Answer

Ok let me try and do this without further confusing you:

After getting a degree in the US, you are usually eligible for 1 yr of Optional Practical Training (OPT) on the basis of your student visa. There are no limitations on whom or where you can work for in the USA. However, there are plenty of stories floating around that many firms are not interested in hiring people with this status.

The other alternative is to get whats called an H1B visa aka known as Work Permit. This is valid for a period of 3 yrs with an option for renewing for another 3 years. This is an employer sponsored visa. i.e. An employer needs to apply on your behalf to avail of the visa. The quota for this visa is 65K a year, however only approximately 58K are available to open candidates (there are some in built quotas for nationals of 2-3 specific coutries - I dont remember which ones off the top of my head). There is a separate 20K quota for students with graduate degrees from the US - however even this quota seems to be heavily oversubsribed. The applications can be sent on April 1 to commence work on Oct 1.

This is a rather expensive process for the company as it has to spend about 4-8K on lawyers to put together a good application.

Side note - there has been a lot of lobbying on either sides to increase the quota/ get rid of it based on your particular viewpoint. Some bills have been debated upon without any real resolution being reached on the.

So the end state is that even if you get a top notch MBA and find dozens of employers willing to bring you on board. There are no guarantees that visas will be available for you.

Let me know if you have any further questions.

700willdo · Answer

sm332,
thanx for the explanation and that makes it lot clearer for me. I think it is one more reason for me to look at schools outside the US more seriously.

loom · Answer

Immigration for countries such as Canada, U.K., and Australia operates on a point-based system. The score is calculated based on various factors including: English ability, years of work experience, profession, highest level of education obtained, etc. If you qualify, you can apply for permanent residency which essentially gives you the right to live and work there.

I'm not sure how to go about obtaining EU citizenship with a European MBA, does anyone know?

I'm not sure how to go about obtaining EU citizenship with a European MBA, does anyone know?

westsider · Answer

Of course, the US citizen can leave whenever they feel like it and go to whatever company the feel like and not worry about their visa status. The visa holder is limited in where they can work to a small fraction of companies capable/willing to sponsor. Even when it is possible to leave, visa holders (such as my wife until she gets her green card in a few months) will tend to think long and hard before making a switch.

If I were an employer I might rather pay $155k a year (when you consider the total cost to the company) for someone on a visa than $150k a year for someone that could leave at their whim.

should internationals be worried about the US economy

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