AWA Evaluation Request
The Prompt: “Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”
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The argument appearing as part of a business plan states that the investment and financial consulting firm should consider transferring their investments from a cola company (Cola Loca) to a coffee company (Early Bird Coffee). This recommendation has been made based on studies, the implication of whose have been presented as a fact.
Firstly, the implications of the studies mentioned in the argument have been assumed as facts. No evidence has been provided to support these implications. One of the ways to strengthen the argument could have been supplying detailed implications of the study. For example, the sample size, and demographics of the population which was studies. Further, the argument compares the increase in consumption of coffee, with the decrease in consumption of cola without comparing their absolute values. In order to compare the consumptions of coffee with the consumption of cola, a comparison based on a uniform metric, for example - milliliter consumed per person, should have been made.
Secondly, the argument is based on unsubstantiated unstated assumptions which need to be addressed. The fact that the trends of consumption for coffee and cola has remained stable for the past 40 years, does not mean that it would continue to remain stable in the next 20 years. Further, the argument also assumes that that as the population ages in the next 20 years, so will the number of older adults increase. The recommendation assumes that in the next 20 years, the number of old adults loosing their lives will be significantly less than the number of adults aging. This is a far-fetched assumption, which needs to be backed by relevant data - for example, the average life expectancy of the current population.
Thirdly, based on the claim that the demand for coffee will increase, while that of cola will decrease during the next 20 years, the author recommends that the investment and financial consulting firm should transfer their investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee. The author applies the general prediction to these two companies without considering the possibility that these companies may not follow this general trend. The argument would have been stronger, if the fundamental metrics of the two companies, such as revenue growth, and current and projected market share, were provided in order to justify this change in investment.
Hence, this argument is flawed because of the aforementioned reasons. It needs substantiated data to strengthen its claims, and the author's line of reasoning needs a correction.