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gmatophobia
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MartyMurray , KarishmaB
I have little bit doubt regarding your explanation for option B.
Don't you think the inflation will affect both the treatment of a particular disease and the overall annual cost of treating all the diseases ?
The total treatment cost consists of each particular treatment cost ..right ?
Please correct me if I wrong.
MartyMurray
­The evidence of the last 50 years in this country shows how unlikely it is that the cost of treating any particular disease in the population at large will fall merely because of improvements in medical technology. For while medical technology advanced tremendously during that time, annual overall spending on disease treatment also rose dramatically. 

The conclusion of the argument is the following:

The evidence of the last 50 years in this country shows how unlikely it is that the cost of treating any particular disease in the population at large will fall merely because of improvements in medical technology.

The support for the conclusion is the following:

while medical technology advanced tremendously during that time, annual overall spending on disease treatment also rose dramatically

One issue with this argument that may jump out at us is that the conclusion is about "the cost of treating any particular disease" whereas the evidence is about "overall annual spending on disease treatment."

So, basically, the author has used evidence about an increase in TOTAL spending to support the conclusion that the cost of treating any PARTICULAR disease does not fall because of improvements in medical technology.

Using that evidence to support the conclusion is a questionable approach since the fact that overall spending increased does not necessarily indictate that the cost of treating any particular disease did not fall. After all, there could be many reasons why overall spending would increase even if the cost of treating specific diseases fell.

The argument is vulnerable to challenge on the grounds that it fails to take into account the possibility of change in each of the following EXCEPT 

This question is a Logical Flaw EXCEPT question. So, the correct answer will be the only choice that does NOT bring up a variable such that the argument is flawed because it fails to take into account the possibility that that variable has changed.

A. the average age of the population

The argument is flawed because it does not take into account the possibility of change in "the average age of the population."

After all, if the average age has increased, that change could be the reason why "annual overall spending on disease treatment ... rose dramatically."

So, if the average age of the popluation changed, it could be that the cost of treating any particular disease in the population at large DOES fall because of improvements in medical technology but overall spending increased anyway because the average age increased and older people used medical services more.

In that case, the argument's conclusion does not follow from the evidence.

Eliminate.

B. the value of money as a result of inflation

The argument is flawed because it does not take into account the possibility of change in "the value of money as a result of inflation."

After all, if the value of money has changed as a result of inflation, that change could be the reason why "annual overall spending on disease treatment ... rose dramatically."

So, if the value of money did change, it could be that the cost of treating any particular disease in the population at large DOES fall because of improvements in medical technology but overall spending increased anyway because the value of money changed as a result of inflation.

In that case, the argument's conclusion does not follow from the evidence.

Eliminate.

C. the size of the population

The argument is flawed because it does not take into account the possibility of change in "the size of the population."

After all, if the size of the population has increased, that change could be the reason why "annual overall spending on disease treatment ... rose dramatically."

So, if the size of the population changed, it could be that the cost of treating any particular disease in the population at large DOES fall because of improvements in medical technology but overall spending increased anyway because the size of the population increased and so there were more people spending on medical services.

In that case, the argument's conclusion does not follow from the evidence.

Eliminate.

D. the number of medical researchers

The argument is not flawed because it fails to take into account the possibility of change in the number of medical researchers.

After all, even if the number of medical researchers did change, a change in the number of medical researchers would not affect overall spending on treatment of disease. After all, current spending on disease treatment is not affected by the number of medical researchers working on future treatments.

So, a change in the number of medical researchers would have no effect on the support the evidence provides for the conclusion.

Thus, since this question is a Logical Flaw EXCEPT question, this choice is correct because it's the only one that does not highlight a flaw in the argument.

Keep.

E. the types of disease prevalent in the population

The argument is flawed because it does not take into account the possibility of change in "the types of disease prevalent in the population."

After all, if the types of disease prevalent in the population have changed, that change could be the reason why "annual overall spending on disease treatment ... rose dramatically." After all, the new types of diseases that are prevalent could be more expensive to treat than the ones  that were prevalent before.

So, if the types of disease prevalent in the population have changed, it could be that the cost of treating any particular disease in the population at large DOES fall because of improvements in medical technology but overall spending increased anyway because the types of disease prevalent in the population changed with the result that overall spending increased.

In that case, the argument's conclusion does not follow from the evidence.

Eliminate.

Correct answer: D­

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how come D is the correct option here. I feel like if there is a change in the number of medical researchers, lets say there is an increase, hence, government will have to spend more in order to hire these researchers and therefore it would increase the overall spending in the treatment of the disease. Please correct me if my reasoning is wrong.
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gmatophobia
­The evidence of the last 50 years in this country shows how unlikely it is that the cost of treating any particular disease in the population at large will fall merely because of improvements in medical technology. For while medical technology advanced tremendously during that time, annual overall spending on disease treatment also rose dramatically. 

The argument is vulnerable to challenge on the grounds that it fails to take into account the possibility of change in each of the following EXCEPT 

A. the average age of the population

B. the value of money as a result of inflation

C. the size of the population

D. the number of medical researchers

E. the types of disease prevalent in the population 


Attachment:
111.5.png
­



 
The author's argument is that in the last 50 years, tech has improved vastly. But overall cost of "disease treatment" in the country (what the country spends on disease treatment each year) has also increased vastly. Say the cost was 10 Million 50 ­years ago and now it is 1 Billion. 

Your first thought might be that this is such a wild argument. For me to make a meaningful comparison between the two years, I need to take many factors into account and hold them steady in both years. For example, I need to compare the per person cost of treatment for a person of a particular age (cost of treatment for the same disease could be higher for an old person) for a particular disease at, say, the present value of the currency. 

Then the question stem makes sense. The argument fails to take into account all the following (4 things) EXCEPT.

 A. the average age of the population

In 50 years, the average age of the population could have increased a lot leading to many older people falling sick severly and hence overall increase in cost. As we discussed above, this needs to be taken into account. 

B. the value of money as a result of inflation

As we discussed, the value of the currency has to be held constant in the comparison. If I say that 10 years ago, bread cost $2 and now it costs $5, that is not a meaningful comparison. Because of inflation, perhaps the $2 of 10 years ago is equal to $4. Perhaps the increase in cost of bread is of $1 only in real value of money terms. 

C. the size of the population

As we said, we need to compare the cost per person. If the population today is twice of what it was 50 years ago, the total cost of treatment would be higher. 

D. the number of medical researchers

The number of medical researchers doesn't matter. If there were more, and hence the cost of treatment increased, it just goes to show the author's point - that no matter how much you keep advancing tech, the cost doesn't decrease. The reason the cost doesn't decrease is irrelevant -  it could be more researchers, more high-end equipment or whatever else.
Our question is - Is the author's argument valid? Is it true that no matter how much tech advancement happens, the cost of treatment does not decrease? 

E. the types of disease prevalent in the population 

What if today the type of diseases prevalent are far more complicated than 50 years ago? As we said, we need to compare for one particular disease. Its cost of treatment 50 years ago vs today. That would tell us the difference tech has made. 

Answer (D)­
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MartyMurray

D. the number of medical researchers

The argument is not flawed because it fails to take into account the possibility of change in the number of medical researchers.

After all, even if the number of medical researchers did change, a change in the number of medical researchers would not affect overall spending on treatment of disease. After all, current spending on disease treatment is not affected by the number of medical researchers working on future treatments.

So, a change in the number of medical researchers would have no effect on the support the evidence provides for the conclusion.

Thus, since this question is a Logical Flaw EXCEPT question, this choice is correct because it's the only one that does not highlight a flaw in the argument.

Keep.
Hi MartyMurray, had a quick question. I thought that an increase in number of medical researchers would make the technology for treating a disease better and perhaps even cheaper, but the extra cost of the increased number of medical researchers would nullify any cost savings due to improvements in medical technology.

Would appreciate your thoughts on this.
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mpobisetty
Hi MartyMurray, had a quick question. I thought that an increase in number of medical researchers would make the technology for treating a disease better and perhaps even cheaper, but the extra cost of the increased number of medical researchers would nullify any cost savings due to improvements in medical technology.

Would appreciate your thoughts on this.
Interesting question.

I've edited my explanation above to better explain why failing to consider the number of medical researchers doesn't constitute a flaw in the argument.

So, please see the current version of the explanation and let me know if you have any further questions.
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The argument is vulnerable to challenge on the grounds that it fails to take into account the possibility of change in each of the following EXCEPT

So here we are trying to find the factor that would make medical expense increases largely even if there is technology advancement.


A. the average age of the population --Yes, the more the elder, the higher it might be the expense

B. the value of money as a result of inflation -- Yes, it leads to the increase of the absolute value

C. the size of the population -- Yes it means the increase is inevitable

D. the number of medical researchers -- Not sure depends on the % study investment takes, keep

E. the types of disease prevalent in the population -- Yes the more prevalent the disease is, the higher the costs are


So choose D.
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