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Good point about correlation/causation.
There is a strong correlation based on our research and scenario simulations with GMAT Prep:
https://gmatclub.com/forum/new-format-g ... 69682.htmlReedArnoldMPREP
Yes, it seems to me that this whole myth was a big correlation/causation confusion. People who get high scores tend to get many of the first ten questions correct... But that's because they're someone capable of getting a high score.
Yes, missing an easier/medium question early might put you in a place where you have to convince the test 'no no, that was a dumb mistake, I can get those,' but it's recoverable. Now if you do it twice? Okay... Three times? On easy/medium questions? The problem isn't that you missed three questions in the first ten questions, it's that you're not consistent at easy/medium questions.
I know a few years ago, MPrep had a teacher take an official test (not a practice test--the real thing) and purposefully miss the first ten questions (also not guess--miss). She then got all the next questions right. She ended up with a Quant 47. Now she usually got Q50, or Q51, so it definitely dinged her score some, but it showed that recovery from a bad start was definitely possible.
That is obviously not advice to intentionally miss the first 10 questions--you have to be able to get all the rest right, and, she did get a lower score than she usually did. But it was still a very strong quant score.