The tobacco industry is still profitable and projections are that it

Question

The tobacco industry is still profitable and projections are that it will remain so. In the United States this year, the total amount of tobacco sold by tobacco-farmers has increased, even though the number of adults who smoke has decreased.

Each of the following, if true, could explain the simultaneous increase in tobacco sales and decrease in the number of adults who smoke EXCEPT:

(A) During this year, the number of women who have begun to smoke is greater than the number of men who have quit smoking.

(B) The number of teen-age children who have begun to smoke this year is greater than the number of adults who have quit smoking during the same period.

(C) During this year, the number of nonsmokers who have begun to use chewing tobacco or snuff is greater than the number of people who have quit smoking.

(D) The people who have continued to smoke consume more tobacco per person than they did in the past.

(E) More of the cigarettes made in the United States this year were exported to other countries than was the case last year.

GMATNinja · Accepted Answer

For any discrepancy/paradox CR, a good first step is to make sure you clearly understand what the discrepancy is. In this case, the discrepancy itself is fairly straightforward: "In the US, the total amount of tobacco sold by tobacco-farmers has  increased , even though the number of adults who smoke has  decreased ."

Huh... if the number of smokers has gone down, wouldn't that decrease total tobacco sales? And if sales are down, wouldn't total profits also decrease? Instead, tobacco sales have increased, and projections indicate the tobacco industry will remain profitable.

As we analyze the answer choices, we need to  eliminate  anything that COULD explain this apparent discrepancy. Make sure you pay close attention to the word "could" in the question stem. We can eliminate an answer choice even if it might not necessarily explain the discrepancy. As long as it could POSSIBLY explain a simultaneous increase in tobacco sales and decrease in the number of adults who smoke, we can cross it off:

Even if (A) is true, the TOTAL NUMBER of adults who smoke has decreased. So there must be something else that makes up for this statistic and produces a net decrease in adult smokers. For example, perhaps the number of women who have quit far exceeds the number of men who have begun to smoke.

How the numbers are broken down among different groups of adults (i.e. by gender, age group, ethnicity, etc.), makes no difference. Regardless of the details, the bottom line is that there has been a NET DECREASE in the number of adults who smoke. Therefore, we would still expect sales and profits to decrease. (A) could not explain a simultaneous increase in tobacco sales and decrease in the number of adults who smoke, so  keep  this one.

Again, we know that we have a net decrease in the number of adults who smoke. But what about smokers who are NOT adults (i.e. teen-age children)? If the number of teen-age children who have begun to smoke is GREATER than the number of adults who have quit smoking, then it is POSSIBLE that the net increase in teen smokers exceeds the net decrease in adult smokers. That would indeed explain the discrepancy.

Remember, we don't need to PROVE that this explains the discrepancy. We don't know how many teens quit smoking or how many adults started smoking. As a result, we cannot actually determine whether the net increase in teen smoking exceeds the net decrease in adult smoking. Regardless, this is a  possible  explanation, so cross of (B).

A net decrease in adult smoking would contribute to a decrease in tobacco sales. But smoking is only one form of tobacco use. If the number of nonsmokers who use chewing tobacco increases, that would contribute to an INCREASE in tobacco sales. That increase COULD exceed the decrease caused by a reduction in adult smoking, so (C) COULD explain the discrepancy. Since this is a possible explanation, eliminate (C).

We know that the NUMBER of adult smokers has decreased, but does that necessarily mean that total tobacco use has decreased? For example, what if those who did not quit started to consume a much greater quantity of tobacco themselves? Sure, tobacco sales are negatively impacted as people quit, but an increase in consumption per person among non-quitters would  positively  affect sales.

If that positive effect exceeds the reduction in sales caused by the decrease in adult smokers, then we would have a net increase in sales despite a net decrease in adult smokers. Choice (D) could explain the discrepancy, so eliminate (D).

Perhaps smoking in the US has declined, which would reduce local demand for cigarettes. But perhaps cigarette companies have started selling more cigarettes overseas. If the increase in overseas sales exceeds the loss in local sales, then there would be a net increase in tobacco sales. This would explain how the number of adult smokers in the US could decrease while total tobacco sales increases. (E) is a possible explanation, so eliminate (E).

Choice (A) is the only one that could  not  explain the discrepancy, so (A) is the best answer.

TommyWallach · Answer

Hey All,

Plenty of people have taken this one, but no one has yet been comprehensive, so I thought I'd take a swing at it. This is an Explain the discrepancy question, so all you have to do is find the discrepancy.

Discrepancy: Adult smokers down, tobacco sales up.
 
A. During this year, the number of women who have begun to smoke is greater than the number of men who have quit smoking.
ANSWER: This actually makes the number of smoker go up, and doesn't address tobacco sales at all. This does not explain the discrepancy at all.

B. The number of teen-age children who have begun to smoke this year is greater than the number of adults who have quit smoking during the same period.
PROBLEM: This says that kids have taken up the adult slack. That would explain why there are now fewer adult smokers, but more sales altogether. This does explain the discrepancy.

C. During this year, the number of nonsmokers who have begun to use chewing tobacco or snuff is greater than the number of people who have quit smoking.
PROBLEM: This says that fewer people are smoking, but nonsmokers have begun using tobacco in other ways. That does explain the discrepancy.

D. The people who have continued to smoke consume more tobacco per person than they did in the past.
PROBLEM: This implies that even if fewer people smoked, they would buy more tobacco, so tobacco sales would be higher. That does explain the discrepancy.

E. More of the cigarettes made in the United States this year were exported to other countries than was the case last year.
PROBLEM: This is trickily worded, because the question stem says "In the United States this year, the total amount sold by tobacco-farmers has increased...". This doesn't necessitate that the tobacco is SOLD in the United States, only that companies in the United States are doing the selling (possibly to foreign countries). That means that even if fewer Americans smoke, sales could be up, because the tobacco is exported. This does explain the discrepancy.

Word up.

Hope that helps!

GMATNinja · Answer

This passage presents what seems like a paradox:

The number of adults who smoke has decreased... BUT
The total amount of tobacco sold by tobacco farmers has increased.

Notice that “tobacco sold by tobacco farmers” is not the same as “the number of adults who smoke.” Smoking is only one possible use of tobacco bought from U.S. farmers, and U.S. adults are only one segment of the world population. We can explain this paradox by identifying other products made from tobacco or other users of tobacco.

And since this is an EXCEPT question, it’s always good to be clear about what we’re trying to do: we’re ELIMINATING anything that could explain the paradox.

With that in mind...

Quote:

A. During this year, the number of women who have begun to smoke is greater than the number of men who have quit smoking

Knowing the breakdown of adults smokers doesn’t give us an alternative tobacco product or an alternative tobacco user. (A) doesn’t change the fact that the total number of adult smokers has decreased, and it does nothing to explain why tobacco sales have somehow increased.

Choice (A) won’t resolve the paradox, so let’s keep it around and continue eliminating choices.

Quote:

B. The number of teen-age children who have begun to smoke this year is greater than the number of adults who have quit smoking during the same period

Choice (B) points out a non-adult group, teenagers, whose entry into the world of smoking could account for the overall increase in tobacco sales. We’ll eliminate this choice.

Quote:

C. During this year, the number of nonsmokers who have begun to use chewing tobacco or snuff is greater than the number of people who have quit smoking

Choice (C) names increases in the popularity of two non-smoking products (snuff and chewing tobacco) that could lead to increased tobacco sales. This could resolve the paradox, so we can eliminate (C).

Quote:

D. The people who have continued to smoke consume more tobacco per person than they did in the past

Choice (D) doesn’t name a new type of tobacco user or a different type of tobacco product. However, it does offer a third reason why total tobacco sales could increase: whoever is still smoking is more committed than ever! Way to outdo those pesky teenagers, adults. And thanks for helping us eliminate this choice.

Quote:

E. More of the cigarettes made in the United States this year were exported to other countries than was the case last year.

Choice (E) identifies an entire world of non-U.S.-adult smokers who could be driving up demand for U.S. tobacco. Let’s eliminate this choice.

Answer choice (A) is still the only choice that fails to give us an alternative consumer, an alternative product, or missing information on how much smoking is done by U.S. adults. We’re sticking with it. And for the record, none of these choices are as addictive as the GMAT (sorry if that joke was a drag).

I’ll be here all week, folks.

_________________

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I’ll be here all week, folks.

target780 · Answer

Use POE...

A: no of women who smoke has increased more than the no. of men who quit smoking... this choice comes as a surprise to me, because in that case the number of adults (assuming that men and women refer to adults, and not to teenagers, or children) who smoke will increase, so it contradicts the question statement itself which says that the number of adults smoking cigs. has decreased. 

B. The number of teen-age children who have begun to smoke this year is greater than the number of adults who have quit smoking during the same period ---- this can result in higher tobacco cosumption and thereby higher profit 

C. During this year, the number of nonsmokers who have begun to use chewing tobacco or snuff is greater than the number of people who have quit smoking -------- this can also result in higher tobacco consumption.

D. The people who have continued to smoke consume more tobacco per person than they did in the past --- this will also lead to increased consumption.

E. More of the cigarettes made in the United States this year were exported to other countries than was the case last year. ----- more cigerettes so more tobacco.....

So all of the answer choices except A can possibily lead to increase consumption.. (however, note that none of these can guarantee increased consumption or increased profit).

Since the question asks which of the choices could explain the simultaneous increase in tobacco sales and decrease in the number of adults who smoke EXCEPT

so the answer should be 'A'.

gurpreetsingh · Answer

what is OA, I m still not convinced, it should be A.

As according to A.
number of women who have begun to smoke is greater than the men who left. We cannot interpret anything from it. But for all other we can justify both decrease in number and increase in sales.

TommyWallach · Answer

Hey Gurpreet,

Remember to read the question carefully. This isn't about what you can infer from the answer choices generally, just whether or not they can explain how sales can be up when smokers are down. Answer choice A actually shows the # of smokers increasing (more women starting then men quitting), which is the opposite of what we've been told. It doesn't explain why tobacco sales would be up either.

-tommy

gurpreetsingh · Answer

Hi Thanks for the reply

But the question stem is ::
Each of the following, if true, could explain the simultaneous increase in tobacco sales and decrease in the number of adults who smoke EXCEPT:

They asked except, since A doesnt explain thus its the ans? Pls suggest me where I m wrong.

TommyWallach · Answer

Exactly Gurpreet,

If you look at my explanation, you'll see that every answer choice EXCEPT A can explain the discrepancy. Might I suggest you're not quite understanding the word "Except"? The way to read this question stem is like this: "Four of the five answer choices will explain the discrepancy, and one will not. Find the one that does not." What may be confusing you is that the correct answer is IRRELEVANT to the topic at hand. That happens with except questions. Consider this made up question:

Why is it so hot in this apartment?

All of the following explain the above question EXCEPT:

A) The heater is on.
B) My apartment is on fire.
C) I am wearing twenty-five sweatshirts and a lot of thermal underwear.
D) You are following me around with a hair dryer.
E) The Mighty Morphin Power Rangers are on TV.

The correct answer here would be E, because it has NO connection to the conclusion, and thus is the requested EXCEPTION.

Hope that helps!

-t

sudhirmadaan · Answer

Official Guide for GMAT Verbal Review, 2nd Edition
Practice Question
Question No.: 60

The tobacco industry is still profitable and projections are that it will remain so. In the United States this year, the total amount of tobacco sold by tobacco-farmers has increased, even though the number of adults who smoke has decreased.

Each of the following, if true, could explain the simultaneous increase in tobacco sales and decrease in the number of adults who smoke EXCEPT:

A. During this year, the number of women who have begun to smoke is greater than the number of men who have quit smoking
B. The number of teen-age children who have begun to smoke this year is greater than the number of adults who have quit smoking during the same period
C. During this year, the number of nonsmokers who have begun to use chewing tobacco or snuff is greater than the number of people who have quit smoking
D. The people who have continued to smoke consume more tobacco per person than they did in the past
E. More of the cigarettes made in the United States this year were exported to other countries than was the case last year.

Team please help me on this official question.

Argument is asking to find "EXCEPT" statement which explain the simultaneous increase in tobacco sales and decrease in the number of adults who smoke.

a) Number of women is greater than number of men. 
 Thinking of possibility, I made following calculations
10 men + 10 women = 20 adults 
5 men 7 women quits 
6 women added. Statement is still valid, so basically this creates a doubt on the argument statement, which says increase in tobacco sales and decrease in the number of adults. Hence possible contender

B ) this explains discrepancy partially . No of adults decrease but we cannot be sure about tobacco consumptions ; hence not sure about sale again.

c) some non smokers stated consuming tobacco. what if the quantity is far less then the quantity consumed by smokers who quit smoking. in this case sale will not go up.

d) this can be ruled out easily, as per person consumption is increased.

e) this option clearly says that adults decreased(mentioned in premise), but sale is up as more tobacoo goes out.

mikemcgarry · Answer

Dear sudhirmadaan , I'm happy to respond. :-)

The paradox presented in the prompt has two pieces: i) fewer adults in the US are smoking ii) tobacco sales of US companies have increases It's not a problem for either one of those to be true, but the question is how can they both be true at the same time? (A) During this year, the number of women who have begun to smoke is greater than the number of men who have quit smoking It's unclear how this is consistent with fewer adults overall smoking: we would have to have info about the number of men who started and the number of women who quit. Even if the gender balance of existing smokers shifts, that gives us no information about why tobacco sales would be increased. We don't know that one gender would smoke more on average than the other, so we can draw no conclusion here. This is a very strong contender. (B) The number of teen-age children who have begun to smoke this year is greater than the number of adults who have quit smoking during the same period We agree that this addresses the paradox, at least partially. (C) During this year, the number of nonsmokers who have begun to use chewing tobacco or snuff is greater than the number of people who have quit smoking This opens up a whole other usage category, so this gives us insight into the paradox. If there is a parallel market of tobacco consumers who are not smokers, this definitely would explain why the number of smokers and the sales of tobacco might not be strictly correlated. It's true, we don't necessarily know how the amount of tobacco consumed by a single "chewer" compares to that of a single smoker, but the fact that there is this whole other market of non-smoking tobacco users certainly helps to explain how tobacco sales could rise without a corresponding increase in the number of smokers. (D) The people who have continued to smoke consume more tobacco per person than they did in the past We agree that this addresses the paradox, at least partially. (E) More of the cigarettes made in the United States this year were exported to other countries than was the case last year. We agree that this addresses the paradox, at least partially. If we have to chose between (A) and (C), it's a slam dunk. (A) is a much better answer. Gender tells us nothing about tobacco consumption, but having a whole market of non-smoking tobacco consumers could play a big role in resolving this paradox. Does all this make sense? Mike :-)

sudhirmadaan · Answer

Thanks mikemcgarry, most of the things are pretty cleared. 
So we need to find answer which resolves paradox by considering both points. We neglect the choices, which are partially explaining. 
C can be ignored as we don't know whether sale actually increases, but we know adult smokers decrease, given in premise.
E can be ignored because we don't know whether increase in export can compensate for decreases in sale for tobacco in internal US.

Please confirm

mikemcgarry · Answer

Dear sudhirmadaan , Yes, that's correct. This paradox, like many, consists of the juxtaposition of two facts, each of which on its own would not be problematic. Addressing just one side or the other is not helpful, precisely because the individual pieces are not paradoxical. Resolving the paradox always involves bridging the gap between the two. Here's a blog article you may find helpful: GMAT CR: Paradox Questions Mike :-)

Mrinal Lather · Answer

The answer is A. 
Since, this is an except question, we need to find out the option which doesn't explain the increase in sale of tobacco even when the number of adults smoking tobacco has decreased.

A) This choice breaks the premise which clearly states that number of adults smoking has decreased.(assuming women to be adults)
B)Since, number of teen-agers smoking has increased, it explains the paradox.
C)Since, people have started using other tobacco products, it explains why tobacco sale has increased.
D) People who have continued smoking, have increased the amount of tobacco that they smoke. Hence, tobacco sale has increased as a whole.
E) Since, exports of cigarettes have increased, it might be the reason why the total tobacco sold has increased.

VerbalBot · Answer

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The tobacco industry is still profitable and projections are that it

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