This year's increase in applications...

Question

How big of a factor will this be? If applications are truly up ~20-30% across the board, will applicants get waitlisted/denied by some target schools that in years past would have been acceptances? Will reaches be even longer reaches this go around?

Is the impending recession the sole reason?

Is the impending recession the sole reason?

bkk145 · Answer

I would say...Yes... to all of your questions...
though I am not sure if any top program is planning for a larger class size this year...

riverripper · Answer

Most schools are at the limits because of the facilities they have...so they wont be growing. Not sure if MIT, Ross, Stanford, or any of the schools building new buildings will grow once those are done. I know last year Kellogg had a higher yield than they thought they would, so their class ended up being bigger than they planned.

This year I am sure a lot of schools will be anticipating higher yield than in the last few years when deciding the number of applicants to admit...if yield falls short of expectations then there might be a lot of WL action. If yield is even better then a lot of schools will probably only take a handful of people off the WL.

I did a quick calculation of Kelloggs data a while ago and if they have roughly 10-15% increase in apps and a yield that is better than last year their rate could very easily be in the teens next year. That said I think 10 or even 15% might be lowballing the increase at a lot of schools. When I talked to an adcom on the phone at Kellogg to ask a question, I made a comment about how she was hard to get a hold of...she kind of laughed and made a remark that they are completely swamped with applications. The way she said it, it sounded like it was a very large increase. I am sure at admit weekends some schools will give an idea of the increases...I know rumor has it that Chicago saw a 40% increase this year and some other schools have had increases of +50%.

sam77sam7 · Answer

Do you think this will effect Fall 09 admissions? Would the rise be expected to continue into 09..

That sure worries me a bit....

~Sam

kwam · Answer

Sam

I think that applications may increase a bit next year if economy in US keeps slowing down. I've heard that US B-schools would even admit more foreign students from EM as they would go back to their countries were the situations may be better than US in the following 2 years. But I think that this is just marginal...

I don't believe that schools would admit many more students next year, even with new facilities, as they need to keep their stats: admittance rate, yield, GMAT, GPA, etc, etc, etc. And also the stats of job placement. During the Stanford info session they mentioned the new building (sponsored by Phil Knight) and they never mentioned more slots for students there. Even Chicago with the new Harper Center hasn't increased its intake, so this must be the pattern.

However; there is one thing that no one mentions about this increase: people are applying to more schools. In the past people used to apply to "just" 2 or 3 schools, whilst now people are applying to 5-8 schools, and that increases the number of applications.

riverripper · Answer

I think the argument that people apply to a lot more schools is completely accurate. Yes thats probably true but I dont think in a year the average apps per person increases by 1 or 2...probably fractionally more but not a huge increase per person.

Next year will be harder than this, international apps have been increasing steadily and now with the economy tanking people will bail out looking for to get that MBA out of the way when the economy sucks and reenter it when its rebounding. Look at the early 2000s and the number of applications the top schools were getting. I dont know if that will happen next year but there is definitely a lot of room for growth in the applicant pool if the past is any indicator.

I think there is also a snowball factor. People that had no success getting into schools this year that will reapply either to new schools or the same. Since this year was harder than the past few, there will be more of these folks.

Dont be intimidated, you cant tell everyone else not to apply...you just have to put your best effort out there and hope for the best. By october you will have numbers for applications this year and it wont just be speculation.

Travel09 · Answer

I think number of international applicants is partially correlated to exchange rate. If the number of applicants depends on job market/economy and a "quota" system does exist, then candidates from certain industries/markets will have more competition

. I guess once the financial industry (not to mention already depressed real estate) is impacted rest of the economy will follow and will be tough for everybody.

dextrous · Answer

how are people figuring out if applications have gone up? have the #s been released somewhere?

mbavolunteer · Answer

Check this graph:
https://www.skoolix.com/AdmissionTips.aspx#whentoapply

Harvard's class size has remained pretty much the same since 2000 (range: 880 - 914). So think it's primarily driven by the economy...

riverripper · Answer

Adcoms have made statements about it. Some have given % increases and others have just said that there are substantially more applicants this year than last.

satbirmultani · Answer

d faculty at georgetown, who interviewed me, said tht apps to their coll were up 40% this yr...

UNC KF had to increase its interview deadline from 30 nov to 21 dec bcoz of a tremendous increase in interview requests... i think again a hike of 50% or so...

saurabh357 · Answer

I read somewhere on this forum that Ross R1 was up 50%.

In fact, the adcom who emailed me about the decision told me in a later mail that it was an unusually competitive season this year...

kryzak · Answer

Berkeley adcom reported 27 and 20% increases in R1 and R2, respectively.

Stanford does not plan on expanding class size even with the new facility, based on a student tour guide.

Next year might be very tough, considering Haas might drop to 12% this year.

IHateTheGMAT · Answer

Here are my thoughts on this topic...

First, applications this year are up substantially. We know that for sure. However, I do think that these 40-50% increases (while technically accurate in terms of the increases some of these programs are seeing) somewhat exaggerates the situation and here's why: GMAT Volume is up 13%, this would seem to be a rough estimate of the number of additional APPLICANTS (not applications) this year. I believe the rest of this increase (as alluded to by a previous poster) is the result of applicants increasing the number of schools they apply to. For example, I had planned to apply to 4 schools next year but now that I see the increased competition I plan to apply to 5-6. If the average applicant increased the number of schools they apply to from 3 to 4, this is a 33% increase in applications. If they increase from 4-5, this is a 25% increase in applications. I expect that as a result many of the schools will have lower yields and, as a result, their acceptance rates will not decline by as much as their increased application volume would lead you to believe. HOWEVER, its important to note that even a 13% increase (as indicated by GMAT volume) is substantial.

Now as far as next years apps are concerned there is one major factor that makes me a bit optimistic that we won't see a dramatic increase in apps. When I look back to the application boom of 2002 from the last recession (which is the evidence most often cited to support the idea that apps will increase massively next year) I note one important and substantial difference. In the years leading up to 2002, MBA application volume had been weak as a number of the people that would normally get their MBA were lured into the tech boom (and related Wall Street boom). When the recession hit there was a large group of people that had always wanted their MBAs but put it off becuase of better opportunities. When they were all laid off at once (btw layoffs happened to late for 2001 apps, whereas in this cycle we already had many wall street, mortgage, and related layoffs in time to hit the 2008 app cycle) they applied en masse during the same year. The very next year apps dropped off. Now, if you look forward to 2009, it will be following 3 straight years of increases in MBA apps including this 2008 year which looks like one of the most competitive years on record. Many of the people considering an MBA have already got it (or are getting it) because the MBA market has been stong the last 3 years (this was not the case during the 3 years preceding 2002). This means there is a much smaller "target market" of mid 20s wannabe MBAs. Plus the layoffs crowd (wall street, mortgages, real estate, etc) will be split over 2 cycles this year rather than all hitting the same cycle as they did in 2002.

What are your thoughts?

kryzak · Answer

well thought out reasoning. I think it makes sense and could evolve that way.

I personally believe the application increase is part increased interest and part "application inflation", which is what you described when people apply to 1-2 more schools than they normally would because of perceived difficulty in getting into schools... the vicious cycle continues...

Anyway, the application season is almost over (most R2's are nearing an end), so all we can do for 2008 is to wait and see the aftermath.

riverripper · Answer

I wish schools would give round breakups though for the increases. R1 could be way up but R2 could be flat or decrease or it could be just the opposite. During admit weekends some schools give numbers out, so if that happens a lot of those will quickly become public.

kryzak · Answer

river, Haas did give a round breakup so far, 27% for R1, 20% for R2. Dunno about R3 but I can ask if I remember when I visit today.

sperinko · Answer

I would be interested to see R3 numbers in schools. News of an impending recession came in pretty late for folks to put in a R2 app, and I think a lot of people may have decided after December to apply to a couple of b-schools as a safe bet, should the economy slide downwards in the next few months. This may make R3 numbers one of the highest in recent years. I wonder if the schools are thinking along these lines, and WLing folks in R2 to see if they can admit some strong candidates in R3.

kryzak

river, Haas did give a round breakup so far, 27% for R1, 20% for R2. Dunno about R3 but I can ask if I remember when I visit today.

uphillclimb · Answer

You know, one thing I don't think anyone has brought up yet, amidst all the worry about the rise in applicants: just because there are more of 'em, doesn't mean they're competitive. I mean, I'm sure that some of them are, but I bet a lot of people are filing half-assed apps just because they are worried about the market, etc. Just a thought...

bsd_lover · Answer

Never underestimate your competition ... I learnt this only after 2 DWIs

This year's increase in applications...

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