Bunuel
Several governments have committed to reaching “net-zero” carbon emissions by 2050, often by investing in carbon offset programs such as reforestation and carbon capture. However, a recent analysis argues that offsetting alone will not be sufficient, because many offsets represent reductions that would have occurred even without new investments. Therefore, the analysis concludes that only policies that directly reduce fossil fuel combustion rather than relying on offsetting can reliably achieve climate stabilization targets.
Which of the following, if true, most strengthens the argument in the analysis?
A. Global carbon emissions rose in the past decade despite record levels of investment in offset markets by both governments and corporations.
B. Many governments that rely heavily on offset programs also provide subsidies to fossil fuel industries, undermining the impact of their emissions pledges.
C. Independent audits reveal that a significant share of carbon offset projects report emissions reductions that are not additional to what would have occurred under business-as-usual scenarios.
D. Reforestation-based offsets often take decades to achieve full carbon absorption and are vulnerable to reversal due to wildfire or land use changes.
E. Technological innovations in direct air capture remain expensive and unscalable in the near term, reducing the feasibility of offset-based net-zero pathways.
GMAT Club Official Explanation:
A. Global carbon emissions rose in the past decade despite record levels of investment in offset markets by both governments and corporations.\
At first glance, this sounds like a solid point. But it’s too broad. Yes, emissions went up but we don’t know if that’s because offsets failed, or if emissions just rose faster than offsets could catch up. It’s correlation, not direct proof that offsets don’t work.
B. Many governments that rely heavily on offset programs also provide subsidies to fossil fuel industries, undermining the impact of their emissions pledges.
This makes the governments look inconsistent, sure. But that’s a different issue.
It doesn’t tell us whether offsets themselves work or not. You could remove subsidies and still be relying on bad offsets, so it doesn’t strengthen the main argument.
C. Independent audits reveal that a significant share of carbon offset projects report emissions reductions that are not additional to what would have occurred under business-as-usual scenarios.
This seems right. It says: yeah, a lot of offsets aren’t actually doing anything new, they’re just claiming credit for reductions that were going to happen anyway. That’s exactly what the analysis was warning about.
This supports the claim that offsets aren’t reliable for climate impact.D. Reforestation-based offsets often take decades to achieve full carbon absorption and are vulnerable to reversal due to wildfire or land use changes.
This points out a weakness in reforestation-type offsets that they take time and can be undone. That’s a fair criticism, but not the one the analysis is focused on. The core argument is that many offsets wouldn’t change anything, even if they go perfectly as they were already going to happen. Kind of related, but not too promising.
E. Technological innovations in direct air capture remain expensive and unscalable in the near term, reducing the feasibility of offset-based net-zero pathways.
This is more about cost and scale, saying that one specific offset method isn’t ready yet. That’s a limitation, sure, but the argument is about offsets being ineffective in principle, not unaffordable. So this shifts the focus away from the core claim.