Question:
The following appeared in a report issued by a Marketing Director:
Over the past two years, our website has converted a consistent 3% of its visitors into sales, with very little fluctuation. Clearly, then, our goal for the upcoming year should be to raise the number of visitors to our site by any means necessary. If we can double our number of visitors by casting a wider net on pay-per-click advertising and by creating site content that is more search-engine friendly, we'll double our sales.
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.
Answer:
This argument states that its website has converted 3% of its visitors into sales for the last two years, and it also states that if the visitors to the website are doubled, the sales will double as well. This argument fails to consider various internal and external factors that could lead to an increase in visitor traffic without a proportional increase in sales and so while this argument makes sense when looking at it from one standpoint, it is not detailed enough to be logical and well reasoned.
Firstly, the argument assumes that while the current visitors to the website are actively searching for it and not seeing it in an advertisement, other visitors would still have as much interest in what the website sells. This is a flawed assumption because if a person is searching for a specific item and they go to the website they will be more likely to make a sale than someone who saw an advertisement and went to the website.
Secondly, the argument does not talk about what the advertisement will look like and this is a key factor in deciding whether the additional visitors will have the same visitor to sale ratio. If the advertisement is mainly about the product itself and not a lot about the website, any additional visitors would be interested in the product. But if the advertisement is about the website, people might not be sure about the products sold and might have lesser interest once they are on the website.
Lastly, the argument doesn't speak about how well established the website is and how many people know about the website. If the website is known to people on a wide scale and the additional visitors are people who already regularly buy from the website but are accessing it from advertisements, there will be no improvement in the sales at all.
The argument can be strengthened drastically if the author included what the product was, how well established the website is, how many visitors currently visit the website and how many sales are done by the same customer. Once all these points are in place, the argument can be analyzed better and the conclusion can be better evaluated.