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dcduke
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AlexMBAApply
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Darden isn't a safety - it's comparable to NYU in terms of overall caliber of applicant pool and reputation.

As for Columbia ED, it's really just a threat. The most they can do is keep your $6K deposit should you decide to go elsewhere. They will try and guilt you into not going elsewhere, threaten all kinds of things (i.e. even getting folks paranoid that they will tell other schools - but the thing is, most schools don't have a lot of respect for Columbia's ED process in the first place and will find it a bit of an ego boost that a student is willing to pay an extra $6K to go to their school), but in the end there isn't anything they can really do. Even legal action isn't possible, since the time and effort required to go through that process isn't worth it for anyone involved.

In short, Columbia ED's yield (percentage of admitted folks who choose to matriculate at Columbia) isn't 100%. They will never publicly disclose what it is, but approximately 10-20% of the admitted folks each year from ED will go elsewhere (and you can guess which two schools they tend to go to -- one in Philly, one in Boston, and probably over time the other one in Chicago).

As for Columbia's January program, it primarily attracts folks who aren't career switchers - consultants staying with their firm post-MBA, bankers staying in banking, and entrepreneurs who aren't shutting down their biz. Other than that, the program/courseload is basically the same (other than the start date and lack of summer internship).