Geographer: Because tropical storms require heat and moisture

Question

Geographer: Because tropical storms require heat and moisture, they form especially over ocean surfaces of at least 26 degrees Celsius (79 degrees Fahrenheit), ocean temperatures that global warming would encourage. For this reason, many early discussions of global warming predicted that it would cause more frequent and intense tropical storms. But recent research shows that this prediction is unlikely to be borne out. Other factors, such as instabilities in wind flow, are likely to counteract global warming’s effects on tropical storm development.

Which one of the following most accurately expresses the conclusion drawn in the geographer’s argument?

(A) Tropical storms are especially likely to form over warm ocean surfaces.

(B) Contrary to early discussions, global warming is not the only factor affecting the frequency and intensity of tropical storms.

(C) If global warming were reversed, tropical storms would be less frequent and less intense.

(D) Instabilities in wind flow will negate the effect of global warming on the formation of tropical storms.

(E) Global warming probably will not produce more frequent and intense tropical storms.

sharathnair14 · Answer

Here's what I understood from the Passage.

First. It talks about two factors that make up the ideal condition for Tropical Storms - Moisture & Heat. 
Second. One such area where both these factors available is an Ocean Surface that has reasonably temperatures. These temperatures are caused by Global Warming. 
As a result, more and more people are talking about this and predicting that Global Warming would cause a higher number of heavy storms. (Frequent and Intense)

Then, data that opposes this is presented - Research has shown that this effect (Global Warming -> Stronger+A higher number of Storms) is unlikely. Why? Because there are other factors that affect Global Warming (Instabilities of the wind, etc.)

The Question asks us to show what Expresses (Explains) the Conclusion (The effects are unlikely)

(A) Tropical storms are especially likely to form over warm ocean surfaces.  Out . Repeats/Re-words one of the premises.

(B) Contrary to early discussions, global warming is not the only factor affecting the frequency and intensity of tropical storms.  Out . Tempting, but wrong because the other factors mentioned, according to the passage determine Global Warming. Can't link these to the occurrences and depths of the storms.

(C) If global warming were reversed, tropical storms would be less frequent and less intense.  Out  In line with the reasoning, but doesn't restate the conclusion. If you selected this, you likely didn't pay attention to the conclusion.

(D) Instabilities in wind flow will negate the effect of global warming on the formation of tropical storms.  Out  Too strong a choice to say that these factors will completely rule out the effect of Global Warming on Tropical Storms. All We know is that they affect Global Warming in some way.

(E) Global warming probably will not produce more frequent and intense tropical storms.   Best Choice  . In line with the conclusion - There's a chance that the effects (Tropical Storms) may not occur.

glagad · Answer

I was confused between D and E.

How is - "such as instabilities in wind flow, are likely to counteract global warming’s effects on tropical storm development" different from what is mentioned in D?

hr1212 · Answer

There's subtle difference b/w what D is inferring vs what's mentioned in the argument ie. "likely to counteract" vs "will negate", so D seems to be pushing the boundary towards surety whereas argument is discussing about the possibility.

Sajjad1994 · Answer

Hi Jiyaa22

The argument begins by stating the early prediction (more frequent/intense tropical storms due to global warming), then says  “But recent research shows that this prediction is unlikely to be borne out.”

That statement is the main conclusion. The rest of the passage supports it by explaining why (other factors counteract global warming’s effects)

(B)  is true but too weak, the conclusion is not just that global warming isn’t the only factor, but that the early prediction is unlikely to happen. So  (B)  is incorrect.

Geographer: Because tropical storms require heat and moisture

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Geographer: Because tropical storms require heat and moisture

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