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Bunuel
Marketing Analyst: Traditionally, introducing a new consumer product contributes to the diversity of a company’s product mix and results in an overall increase in revenues and profits. However, our launch of a new brand of soft drinks, Cool Breeze, planned for the end of this fiscal year, will almost certainly reduce rather than increase the company’s profits. Since we already offer a line of chilled refreshments that are very similar to Cool Breeze, the launch of the new drink is likely to cannibalize our current sales rather than attract new customers. Additionally, since the costs of producing Cool Breeze are higher than those of the other chilled refreshments, a large part of our current sales will be replaced with lower-margin revenues.

In the argument above, which of the following statements best describes the role played by each portion in boldface?


(A) The first is a pattern of cause and effect that the marketing analyst predicts will be repeated in the case at issue; the second acknowledges a circumstance in which that pattern would not hold.

(B) The first is a generalization that the marketing analyst accepts as true; the second is a consequence that follows from that generalization.

(C) The first acknowledges a consideration against the main conclusion of the marketing analyst; the second is that conclusion.

(D) The first is a pattern of cause and effect that the marketing analyst predicts will not hold in the case at issue; the second offers a consideration in support of that prediction.

(E) The first is evidence that the marketing analyst provides in support of a certain prediction; the second is that prediction.


OFFICIAL EXPLANATION



The marketing analyst begins his argument by describing the usual relationship between the introduction of a new product and the impact on corporate revenues. Note the use of the word “traditionally” at the beginning of this premise, indicating that the suggested pattern of cause and effect typically holds. Thus, the first statement in boldface represents a generalization that the market analyst accepts as accurate. The analyst then goes on to conclude that this time, however, the usual cause-and-effect relationship will not hold and the introduction of a new product will reduce rather than increase the company’s profits. To support this conclusion, the analyst offers evidence explaining why the new product launch may erode the company’s profits. Therefore, the second statement in boldface represents evidence that supports the main conclusion of the analyst.

(A) This answer choice incorrectly states that the first statement will be repeated in the case at issue. Remember, the analyst argues that the usual pattern will not hold this time. The second statement is correctly described as acknowledging a circumstance in which the usual pattern will not hold.

(B) This answer choice correctly describes the role of the first portion but mistakenly states that the second part in boldface follows from this generalization. The second statement in boldface presents evidence that supports the opposite effect from that described in the first portion. Specifically, the analyst claims that the new product launch will decrease rather than increase profits.

(C) This answer choice correctly describes the role of the first statement but incorrectly states that the second statement represents the conclusion rather than the supporting evidence for that conclusion. Remember, the conclusion of the analyst is that the new product launch will decrease rather than increase profits.

(D) CORRECT. This answer choice correctly identifies the role of each of the two parts in boldface. The first part represents the generalization that is typically accurate but will not be repeated in the case at issue. The second portion presents evidence in support of the analyst’s prediction.

(E) This answer choice incorrectly states that the first portion supports rather than weighs against that analyst’s prediction. In addition, this answer choice incorrectly states that the second portion in boldface represents the analyst’s prediction rather than the evidence supporting it.
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