Psychologist: In an experiment, two groups of volunteers read a story

Question

Psychologist: In an experiment, two groups of volunteers read a story in which a character learns that there is a 50 percent chance of rain later in the day. Group I was told that the character chose to carry an umbrella, whereas Group II was told that the character chose not to carry an umbrella. When asked if it would be appropriate for the story to end with the character getting caught in a rainstorm, volunteers in Group II were much more likely than volunteers in Group I to respond affirmatively. This suggests that people tend to believe that failure to take precautions makes adverse circumstances more likely to occur.

Which of the following is an assumption the psychologists argument requires?

A. The character’s getting caught in a rainstorm is not the most sensible conclusion to the story.
B. Some of the volunteers in Group I based their responses solely on the forecast mentioned in the story.
C. Some of the volunteers in Group II believed that the character in the story deserved to get caught in a rainstorm.
D. The responses of at least some of the volunteers in the experiment reflect those volunteers’ beliefs about the real world.
E. Few of the volunteers in Group I believe that failure to take precautions affects whether adverse circumstances will occur.

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Official Answer

D

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liberoasperiores · Accepted Answer

There are two jumps. a) group of volunteers to people. and b) responses to belief.

candyhouse151 · Answer

The psychologist’s argument relies on an assumption. Let’s evaluate the options:

A)  The character’s getting caught in a rainstorm is not the most sensible conclusion to the story.

This is not necessary for the argument. The study focuses on participants’ responses, not the story’s sensibility.  
B)  Some of the volunteers in Group I based their responses solely on the forecast mentioned in the story.

Irrelevant to the argument. The study compares Group I and Group II responses, not their reasoning.  
C)  Some of the volunteers in Group II believed that the character in the story deserved to get caught in a rainstorm.

Not required. The argument doesn’t address moral judgments about the character.  
D)  The responses of at least some of the volunteers in the experiment reflect those volunteers’ beliefs about the real world.

Correct.  The argument assumes that participants’ responses reflect their real-world beliefs.  
E)  Few of the volunteers in Group I believe that failure to take precautions affects whether adverse circumstances will occur.

Not relevant. The study doesn’t focus on Group I’s beliefs.  
Therefore, the correct assumption is  D) The responses of at least some of the volunteers in the experiment reflect those volunteers’ beliefs about the real world.

gmatophobia · Answer

The conclusion of the passage is stated in the last line of the passage " people tend to believe that failure to take precautions makes adverse circumstances more likely to occur ". The author has drawn a real-world conclusion based on the results of the experiment that was conducted.

Support given for the author's conclusion - " When asked if it would be appropriate for the story to end with the character getting caught in a rainstorm, volunteers in Group II were much more likely than volunteers in Group I to respond affirmatively. "

Hence, the author assumes that the responses of the volunteers in Group II reflect their actual beliefs and that the volunteers didn't lie about their beliefs.

Answer choice elimination

A) The character's getting caught in a rainstorm is not the most sensible conclusion to the story.

This is not an assumption. The author doesn't base the conclusion on what should be the most sensible conclusion to the story. Eliminate A.

B) Some of the volunteers in Group I based their responses solely on the forecast mentioned in the story.

This assumption is not necessary for the psychologist's argument. The author based his conclusion on the response of the volunteers in Group II. Hence, the reason for Group I's response is not necessary for the argument to hold.

C) Some of the volunteers in Group II believed that the character in the story deserved to get caught in a rainstorm.

This option is also not necessary for the conclusion to hold. Hence, eliminate C.

D) The responses of at least some of the volunteers in the experiment reflect those volunteers' beliefs about the real world.

This assumption directly relates to the psychologist's argument, as the conclusion is based on the assumption that the responses in the experiment reflect real-world beliefs.

Negation : The responses of  none  of the volunteers in the experiment reflect those volunteers' beliefs about the real world.
If this were true, we cannot conclude that people tend to believe that failure to take precautions makes adverse circumstances more likely to occur.

Keep D.

E) Few of the volunteers in Group I believe that failure to take precautions affects whether adverse circumstances will occur.

The conclusion of the argument is based on the response of the volunteers in Group II. Hence, this statement is not an assumption.

Option D

kakarot10 · Answer

I was stuck between the options c and d. But it turns out that the answer is C. Perhaps the reason is that some of them had got caught in rainstorm when they had forgotten the umbrella, and that memory has stuck with them and influences their thinking

Fish181 · Answer

The negation technique is how you get this one correct quickly.

D) The responses of at least some of the volunteers in the experiment reflect those volunteers' beliefs about the real world.

Imagine if this said

The responses of NONE of the volunteers in the experiment reflect those volunteers' beliefs about the real world.

Well if this is true then how can you apply observations from the study to the conclusion in the real world people tend to believe that failure to take precautions makes adverse circumstances more likely to occur.

Since it strongly affects the argument this is your clear winner.

EMPOWERgmatVerbal · Answer

This is a relatively tricky question that requires us to carefully analyze the psychologist's argument and identify the underlying assumption. Let's break it down step by step to find the correct answer.

The psychologist's main conclusion is that  people tend to believe that failure to take precautions makes adverse circumstances more likely to occur . This conclusion is based on the different responses from the two groups of volunteers.

To identify the necessary assumption, we need to find a statement that, if false, would weaken or invalidate the psychologist's conclusion.

Let's examine each answer choice:

(A) The character's getting caught in a rainstorm is not the most sensible conclusion to the story. 
This statement does not directly affect the psychologist's conclusion about people's beliefs. Even if getting caught in a rainstorm is not the most sensible conclusion, it doesn't undermine the idea that people believe failing to take precautions makes adverse circumstances more likely.

(B) Some of the volunteers in Group I based their responses solely on the forecast mentioned in the story. 
This statement, if true, would not weaken the psychologist's conclusion. Even if some volunteers based their responses solely on the forecast, it doesn't change the fact that the two groups responded differently.

(C) Some of the volunteers in Group II believed that the character in the story deserved to get caught in a rainstorm. 
This statement suggests a possible reason for Group II's responses but does not directly affect the psychologist's conclusion about people's beliefs regarding precautions and adverse circumstances.

(D) The responses of at least some of the volunteers in the experiment reflect those volunteers' beliefs about the real world. 
This is the correct answer. The psychologist's conclusion is about people's beliefs in general, not just their beliefs about the story. If the volunteers' responses do not reflect their real-world beliefs, then the psychologist cannot draw a conclusion about people's beliefs based on this experiment.

(E) Few of the volunteers in Group I believe that failure to take precautions affects whether adverse circumstances will occur. 
This statement, if true, would support the psychologist's conclusion rather than weaken it. If few volunteers in Group I believe that failure to take precautions affects adverse circumstances, it would be consistent with the difference in responses between the two groups.

Therefore, the correct answer is (D). The psychologist's argument assumes that the volunteers' responses in the experiment reflect their beliefs about the real world.

In Critical Reasoning Assumption questions, look for the assumption that,  if false, would blow up the argument .

GmatKnightTutor · Answer

Psychologist: In an experiment, two groups of volunteers read a story in which a character learns that there is a 50 percent chance of rain later in the day. Group I was told that the character chose to carry an umbrella, whereas Group II was told that the character chose not to carry an umbrella. When asked if it would be appropriate for the story to end with the character getting caught in a rainstorm, volunteers in Group II were much more likely than volunteers in Group I to respond affirmatively. This suggests that people tend to believe that failure to take precautions makes adverse circumstances more likely to occur

Basically, we're told about two groups. One group is told a story in which a person, let's say John, CHOOSES to carry an umbrella. The other group is told the same story in which John doesn't. Even though John is told in the story that there's an equal chance of rain or no rain, the second group of volunteers is like "It's definitely more APPROPRIATE that John is going to end up drenched!" compared to the first group. The psychologist goes on to say this means people in the real world will ALSO think it's more likely something bad will happen if you don't prepare for it.

Which of the following is an assumption the psychologist's argument requires?

A) The character's getting caught in a rainstorm is not the most sensible conclusion to the story. 
Nope. This is an interesting one, though. Thing is, even if it IS the most sensible conclusion to the story, both groups should believe rain is more appropriate to a similar extent. This is not something necessary for the argument the psychologist is specifically making as to why one of the groups thinks it's MUCH MORE appropriate.

B) Some of the volunteers in Group I based their responses solely on the forecast mentioned in the story. 
No. It's worth mentioning that the passage doesn't say anyone in Group 1 believed the 50% forecast to be exactly true. The passage simply says that group 2 believed it was more APPROPRIATE for the story to end with John getting drenched basically. Perhaps 60 percent of Group 1 thought it was appropriate and 80 percent of Group 2 thought it was appropriate.

C) Some of the volunteers in Group II believed that the character in the story deserved to get caught in a rainstorm. 
Nope. Although I admit this could be a reason for why some people in Group 2 think it's more appropriate for John to get drenched, it's not something NECESSARY for the argument to work. The precise REASON for why people believed (or said what they did) isn't important here. It's whether this translates into the real world the same way.

D) The responses of at least some of the volunteers in the experiment reflect those volunteers' beliefs about the real world. 
Here we go. This is the answer. If everyone, for example, is only pessimistic when it comes stories but very logical when it comes to the real world, the argument collapses.

E) Few of the volunteers in Group I believe that failure to take precautions affects whether adverse circumstances will occur. 
Nope. This is not something we require. It's worth remembering we're focused on why group 2 believes a rainstorm happening in the story is more appropriate than group 1 and whether this way of thinking crosses over into the real world.

sayan640 · Answer

In which line of the conclusion was it mentioned that the conclusion is about the real life beliefs of the people?
 EMPOWERgmatVerbal   GmatKnightTutor   gmatphobia

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EMPOWERgmatVerbal · Answer

Hi sayan640,

Sure, let's take a look. So the psychologist's conclusion, "This suggests that people tend to believe that failure to take precautions makes adverse circumstances more likely to occur," is a general statement about people's beliefs, not specifically limited to the story in the experiment.

The use of the phrase "people tend to believe" implies that the conclusion is about people's real-world beliefs, not just their beliefs within the context of the story.

So, although the conclusion is not explicitly stated as being about real-life beliefs, the wording suggests that the psychologist is drawing a broader conclusion about human beliefs based on the results of the experiment.

This is why assumption (D) is necessary for the argument to hold - if the volunteers' responses do not reflect their real-world beliefs, then the psychologist cannot logically conclude anything about people's general beliefs based on this experiment alone.

saurabhmishrano1 · Answer

Let's analyze each answer option:

A. The character’s getting caught in a rainstorm is not the most sensible conclusion to the story.

- This assumption is not necessary for the argument because the psychologist's conclusion focuses on the participants' perceptions and responses, rather than the sensibility of the story's conclusion.

-  Example : Even if the story's conclusion were deemed sensible by the participants, it would not affect the psychologist's conclusion regarding the participants' tendency to associate lack of precaution with adverse outcomes.

B. Some of the volunteers in Group I based their responses solely on the forecast mentioned in the story.

- This assumption is not necessary for the argument because the psychologist's conclusion is about the difference in responses between the two groups, not the specific reasons for individual responses within each group.

-  Example : Even if all volunteers in Group I based their responses solely on the forecast, it would not impact the psychologist's conclusion about the overall trend observed between Group I and Group II.

C. Some of the volunteers in Group II believed that the character in the story deserved to get caught in a rainstorm.

- This assumption is not necessary for the argument because the psychologist's conclusion is not about the volunteers' moral judgments or beliefs about the character's deserts but rather about their tendency to associate lack of precaution with adverse outcomes.

-  Example : Even if some volunteers in Group II believed that the character deserved to get caught in a rainstorm, it would not directly relate to the psychologist's conclusion regarding the association between lack of precautions and adverse circumstances.

D.The responses of at least some of the volunteers in the experiment reflect those volunteers’ beliefs about the real world.

- This assumption is crucial for the argument because the psychologist's conclusion is based on the observed responses of the volunteers in the experiment and their implications for understanding human behavior in the real world.

-  Example : If the responses of the volunteers in the experiment did not reflect their beliefs about the real world, the psychologist's conclusion about people's tendency to associate lack of precautions with adverse circumstances would be called into question.

E. Few of the volunteers in Group I believe that failure to take precautions affects whether adverse circumstances will occur.

- This assumption is not necessary for the argument because the psychologist's conclusion is about the difference in responses between Group I and Group II, not the specific beliefs of volunteers within Group I.

-  Example : Even if few volunteers in Group I believed that failure to take precautions affects whether adverse circumstances will occur, it would not directly impact the psychologist's conclusion regarding the observed difference in responses between the two groups.

egmat · Answer

This is a classic example of a hidden assumption involving the leap from experimental evidence to real-world psychological claims. Let me break down the logical structure to help you see why  D  is correct.

Step 1: Identify the Conclusion 
The psychologist concludes:  "People tend to believe that failure to take precautions makes adverse circumstances more likely to occur." 
This is a claim about people's beliefs regarding  causation in the real world .

Step 2: Analyze the Evidence 
The evidence comes from an experiment where:

Both groups read about 50% rain chance
Group I: character took umbrella → fewer said "appropriate" to get caught in rain
Group II: character didn't take umbrella → more said "appropriate" to get caught in rain

Step 3: Find the Gap 
Here's the critical insight: The evidence is about what people think is an  appropriate story ending , but the conclusion is about what people believe about  real-world causation .
The psychologist assumes these story judgments reflect actual beliefs about how the world works, not just literary preferences or narrative satisfaction.

Step 4: Evaluate Answer D 
 D:  "The responses of at least some of the volunteers in the experiment reflect those volunteers' beliefs about the real world."

This bridges the gap perfectly. If this assumption is  false  (meaning the responses only reflect story preferences, not real-world beliefs), then the conclusion completely falls apart. The psychologist  must  assume that at least some volunteers' story responses reveal their actual beliefs about causation.

Why Other Choices Fail:

A : Irrelevant to whether responses reflect causal beliefs
 B : Doesn't matter if some focused only on probability
 C : "Deserved" (moral judgment) ≠ "more likely" (causal belief)
 E : Goes beyond what's necessary and seems inconsistent

Want to master the complete framework for identifying assumption gaps and avoiding trap answers systematically? Check out the  step-by-step solution on Neuron by e-GMAT , which includes 3 alternative approaches and shows how this pattern appears across similar CR questions. You can also explore all GMAT Official Guide questions with  detailed solutions on Neuron for structured practice .

The full Neuron solution reveals the systematic approach to spotting fiction-to-reality leaps in assumptions and provides a reusable framework for similar question types.

Alilee · Answer

Argument: Bc. group II think the chararcter should get caught by a storm means that ppl believe that not taking procaution will likely make bad situations to occur  
 Goal: Assumption (what must be true in order for the argument to be intact?)

C. Some of the volunteers in Group II believed that the character in the story deserved to get caught in a rainstorm.
 Use the "not" tool.  
 - If some of the volunteers in group II DID NOT believe that the characters in the story deserved to be caught in the storm. <- even so doesn't do much for the argument  
 - If ALL or NONE of the volunteers in group II believe that the characters in the story deserved to be caught in the storm. <- even so doesn't do much for the argument  
D. The responses of at least some of the volunteers in the experiment reflect those volunteers’ beliefs about the real world.
 CORRECT.   Use the "not" tool.  
 - The response of NONE of the volunteers in the experiment reflect thier beliefes about the real world <- if this is the case, then the argument falls apart because the argument is based on people's beliefs.

egobappe

Psychologist: In an experiment, two groups of volunteers read a story

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GMAT Critical Reasoning (CR) Questions

Psychologist: In an experiment, two groups of volunteers read a story

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