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Choice E weakens the conclusion by showing last winter’s 40°F was unusually low due to an anomaly, so the increase to 43°F this year doesn’t necessarily indicate a warming trend or predict higher temperatures next winter.
Choice D says 40°F was a ten-year low. That actually supports the idea that this winter’s 43°F is part of a rise (a rebound from an unusually low point), which is consistent with a warming trend. It doesn’t explain why last winter was low or suggest the increase is misleading. So it doesn’t weaken the conclusion—if anything, it slightly strengthens it.
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The average water temperature in the Bay of Fundy was forty degrees Fahrenheit last winter, but this winter it is forty-three degrees Fahrenheit. Therefore, we can conclude that the water in the Bay of Fundy is warming and its temperature will be higher still next winter.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the conclusion above?

A. The water temperature estimations were computed on the basis of a representative sample of environmental data rather than the entirety of available data.
B. Government intervention cannot significantly affect the water temperature in the Bay of Fundy.
C. The warming of the Bay of Fundy is tied to the speed of the ocean currents, and an average winter temperature of forty-three degrees Fahrenheit results in increased current flow from warmer waters in the east, further warming the bay.
D. The average water temperature of forty degrees Fahrenheit last winter represented a ten-year low.
E. Last winter, an anomalous arctic wind flow brought the average water temperature in the Bay of Fundy below the recent stable average temperature of forty-three degrees Fahrenheit.


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